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2025 foothills Thread


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My only thoughts this morning is that I think we’re trending towards a phased bomb. Each subsequent run seems to pulling that Baja low east quicker. 

And with a bomb the timing will need to be good for us to cash in. Might be all or nothing.
Overrunning would be different


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20 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:


And with a bomb the timing will need to be good for us to cash in. Might be all or nothing.
Overrunning would be different


.

Overrunning is a fine way to go as well. Although it’ll be nerve wrecking because models are notoriously paltry right up to the event.

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8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Overrunning is a fine way to go as well. Although it’ll be nerve wrecking because models are notoriously paltry right up to the event.

No doubt. Have to fire up the SPC maps looking at the 925 level.

Just now, wncsnow said:

Give me a phased bomb with cold air nearby 

That is the biggest pay off or loss of. 

Go big or go home. 

 

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Euro AI at 18z is almost exactly the same as its 12z run. 4-6” region wide and a damn near perfect position for the low. I know we don’t have a long track record with it, but several Mets speak highly of it and it performed well for tomorrow’s storm. It’s had the most consistency we’ve seen so far even though that’s not saying much.

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14 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

…featuring the good ol’ leeside minimum FTW! :arrowhead:

Edit: I know, I know. Way too early to sweat such details. But, we’ve been burned by the Apps so many times, too.

GFS overdoes it, especially if the flow is southwesterly and not westerly 

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