MGorse Posted Sunday at 01:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:45 PM 4 hours ago, kickingupastorm said: Winter Storm Watch down graded to a Winter Weather Advisory. What a joke. Ardmore, Montgomery Country. Technically it is upgraded. Watches cannot be downgraded, just upgraded or cancelled. Just FYI. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted Sunday at 02:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:02 PM 12z NAM is running so will see how that goes. So far it looks like it is south unless it explodes over the next set of frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Sunday at 02:09 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:09 PM 7 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 12z NAM is running so will see how that goes. So far it looks like it is south unless it explodes over the next set of frames. Northern extent of precip ends up being similar but it’s quite a bit drier. While the LV/Poconos aren’t too different from 6z it cuts totals in half south of the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Sunday at 02:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:13 PM 12z HRRR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Sunday at 02:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:17 PM 12z NBM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted Sunday at 02:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:22 PM 11 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Northern extent of precip ends up being similar but it’s quite a bit drier. While the LV/Poconos aren’t too different from 6z it cuts totals in half south of the turnpike. Quick 3k NAM frame (although it looks like it might be still snowing at that point - still waiting for some more frames). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Sunday at 02:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:26 PM NAM with a relative significant reduction in snow totals coming into line with the other models. Finally some strong agreement! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted Sunday at 02:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:28 PM This is the frame I wanted (48). Definitely un-NAM'd itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted Sunday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:34 PM 3k NAM has the Miller B "jump" but then sends the low OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Sunday at 02:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:37 PM 7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: NAM with a relative significant reduction in snow totals coming into line with the other models. Finally some strong agreement! Yep that’s it a total cave to Euro GFS and others. I’d expect the HRRR to follow suit 6+” pretty much dead at this point. general 2-4” turnpike south would think a downgrade from Winter Storm Warnings to advisory level for southeastern Chester to Delaware Counties we were always on the fringe honestly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted Sunday at 02:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:44 PM 16 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: This is the frame I wanted (48). Definitely un-NAM'd itself. People are rioting for bread, milk and eggs over that?? Weenie handbook rule #19: When the NAM cuts back on qpf, declare “convective feedback” and hug a model with higher totals. Sticking with my 1-3” call imby, but might be closer to the 1” now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Sunday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:48 PM Thinking 1" for Northern Chesco to as much as 3" for Southern Chesco...if I was forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted Sunday at 02:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:53 PM 2 minutes ago, JTA66 said: People are rioting for bread, milk and eggs over that?? Weenie handbook rule #19: When the NAM cuts back on qpf, declare “convective feedback” and hug a model with higher totals. Sticking with my 1-3” call imby, but might be closer to the 1” now. If that jump happens, then there may be some kind of dry slot that helps to reduce totals. The HRRR is probably providing the upper end of the range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Sunday at 03:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:00 PM 3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: If that jump happens, then there may be some kind of dry slot that helps to reduce totals. The HRRR is probably providing the upper end of the range. And falling fast! I would expect it to move towards everything else. The confluence is just too strong for this system to punch any further northeast. It’s hitting the proverbial red light! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Sunday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:18 PM 27 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Thinking 1" for Northern Chesco to as much as 3" for Southern Chesco...if I was forecasting. Hey Paul kuddos to you! Many days ago you were worried about the confluence and suppression and here we are! Damm!! Better luck next weekend? Hopefully the storm next weekend doesn’t cut to our west? That would be a disaster! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted Sunday at 03:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:21 PM ICON falling in that same range. I would think the S. Jersey and DE folks will cash in if something warm doesn't advect back in from the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted Sunday at 03:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:40 PM I guess it soon might be radar watching time to see how this evolves, hoping for a surprise but my expectation is 1-2 out here after those runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted Sunday at 03:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:44 PM I have some concern regarding the east-west FGEN zone that the guidance is showing. I have seen this end up being a bit farther north than what the model consensus shows, plus SLR's tend to be higher. We shall see. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Sunday at 03:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:53 PM 33 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Hey Paul kuddos to you! Many days ago you were worried about the confluence and suppression and here we are! Damm!! Better luck next weekend? Hopefully the storm next weekend doesn’t cut to our west? That would be a disaster! Thanks Kevin! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted Sunday at 03:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:58 PM 13 minutes ago, MGorse said: I have some concern regarding the east-west FGEN zone that the guidance is showing. I have seen this end up being a bit farther north than what the model consensus shows, plus SLR's tend to be higher. We shall see. Would it be strong enough to overcome the dry air from the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Sunday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:23 PM Canadian at 12z came north from it's 0z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Sunday at 04:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:26 PM GFS also just a hair north of 6z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Sunday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:34 PM 9 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Canadian at 12z came north from it's 0z run To me coming to agreement on 2-4” extreme SE Pa south of the Turnpike 1-3” north of that then 1-2” Lehigh Valley to coating to 1” Poconos. The only wild card I can think of does the confluence lift out at the very last minute think the gfs showed this back on Fridays 12z run; something to keep an eye on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Sunday at 04:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:46 PM 2 hours ago, MGorse said: Technically it is upgraded. Watches cannot be downgraded, just upgraded or cancelled. Just FYI. Didn't know that. Learning something new everyday.,. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Sunday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:53 PM 1 hour ago, penndotguy said: I guess it soon might be radar watching time to see how this evolves, hoping for a surprise but my expectation is 1-2 out here after those runs Yeah, I usually go into radar mode at this point rather than models. You can actually see what's happening.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted Sunday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:56 PM 58 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Would it be strong enough to overcome the dry air from the confluence. It is possible, but it also may just tighten the northern gradient from snow to no snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Sunday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:42 PM Expectations set at 1.4" imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Sunday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:44 PM 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Expectations set at 1.4" imby That high??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Sunday at 05:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:59 PM 14 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: That high??? 3k NAM and the ICON i feel like a high roller 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Sunday at 06:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:12 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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