1/6 snowstorm - nuisance event or something bigger?

[snowwors2]

40 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z gfs delivers the goods. 

Seeing a different evolution to the system now with a quasi phase and coastal redevelopment. Interesting changes in regards to the confluence allowing some room for the system to breathe and not shear.

No maps as of Tuesday morning⁉️

[RedSky]

GEFS a hair south of 12z

 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, RedSky said:

GEFS a hair south of 12z

 

It's still really good for your area

[AbsoluteVorticity]

21z SREF mean expands precip/bumps north again.

Starting to get a decent feeling about this one for us. Worst case it seems that we get a couple inches from light/mod accumulating snow that persists most of the day while we’re in the mid 20’s.
 

Best case this bumps 50 miles north and continues to juice up given the recent trend to amplify shortwave leading to coastal enhancement and/or ULL snows on the back end. 

[ChescoWx]

[Kevin Reilly]

 

 

[RedSky]

GFS did it again 

[Newman]

Canadian went even more south as well

[mattinpa]

5 minutes ago, Newman said:

Canadian went even more south as well

This looks done for a big storm here but still showing 2-4” for many.

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, Newman said:

Canadian went even more south as well

I mean this thing is just getting crushed south.  Hope this confluence helps us with the big one later!!

[Albedoman]

First and last call 2-4 inches for the LV if we are really lucky with the snow ratios.  Just enough to get the ground white.  Time to put this storm to rest for the LV. No drought buster for sure. From Philly west to Harrisburg 6-8 in  is a good bet --Warning level for them- advisory for the LV. This storm is a Ohio Valley special. From Indianapolis to Columbus to Washington, they get buried. They deserve it as they have been snow starved for years too. Our turn will becoming around Martin Luther King Day. Cold and dry will become the norm like the December 20th-25th time period. 

[RedSky]

DC gets fringed on the Ukie 

[LVblizzard]

No surprises on the Euro. It holds.

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025

NJZ017>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-101-102-104-042015-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.250106T0600Z-250107T0600Z/
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Mount Holly, Long Beach Island, Camden,
Oxford, West Chester, Philadelphia, Lansdale, Kennett Square,
Moorestown, Jackson, Cherry Hill, Wharton State Forest,
Glassboro, Media, Honey Brook, and Norristown
209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
  6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late Sunday night through late Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday
  night and intensify through midday Monday. It will then gradually
  taper off Monday night.

[penndotguy]

Watch’s issued for the the southern counties 4-6, advisory snows likely for Berks County on East Mt Holly snow map looks good 2-4 up this way. Not bad I guess I’ll take any snow that accumulates. 

[Mikeymac5306]

Looked like a tick north on the Euro. Beginning not to matter now as the general consensus it locked in. Down to where the heaviest line IMBY snow sets up. 

A nice 4-6" drop will work.

[ChescoWx]

[RevWarReenactor]

12 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

That would certainly be a heartbreaker for DC and northern VA given what other guidance is showing for those areas.

[JTA66]

My feeling all along is this is a 1-3”, maybe 2-4” deal imby. See no reason to change my thoughts on that. Still, 48ish hours to go, so still time for pleasant or unpleasant surprises.

Looking like a “Kamu special”, we expect snow pile pics!

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Only problem it's on an island by itself for now. 

[Kevin Reilly]

12z gfs 

I would say down here in Delaware County looks like a 4-6” event not 100% sure what ratios will do but it’s probably in the teens and snowing!  We take! 
 Thoughts?

[Blue Dream]

At least we have this troll on our side

[penndotguy]

So is really worth model hugging now as far global’s ? Shouldn’t this now be mesoscale time since we are inside 48hrs.

[Albedoman]

5 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

So is really worth model hugging now as far global’s ? Shouldn’t this now be mesoscale time since we are inside 48hrs.

Yes, 12 hours ago. Gfs  forget it

[ChescoWx]

Steve at NYNJPA's forecast this AM

[RedSky]

RAP is like the NAM

Ukie likes DT

 

 

[ChescoWx]

From Meteorologist Drew Anderson at Fox 29 (If I was forecasting this is what mine would look like)

[KamuSnow]

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

My feeling all along is this is a 1-3”, maybe 2-4” deal imby. See no reason to change my thoughts on that. Still, 48ish hours to go, so still time for pleasant or unpleasant surprises.

Looking like a “Kamu special”, we expect snow pile pics!

 

Trend has been the same here, the modeled pile size has been shrinking. Really hoping for a reversal of the south/drier trend, as are most of us. Whatever we get will stick, so if it snows, there will be pics!

[ChescoWx]

[LVblizzard]

Call me crazy but I still think the Lehigh Valley gets an advisory level event while warning level snow approaches Philly. I’ve seen these types of storms come 50 miles north in the last day or two too many times before. It feels like a matter of when it’ll happen, not if.