1/6 snowstorm - nuisance event or something bigger?

[Kevin Reilly]

Monday, January 6th First Call and Thoughts:

The south trend on the models is undeniable but I am willing to wait and see how this works out over the next 24 hours. 

While the models have taken the storm center further south a bit.  It looks like the models are trying to figure out how much liquid is involved for the storm.

South through DCA and Baltimore across Delaware to South Jersey for instance looks like more liquid is available but temps are a bit higher in the 30-32f range.

Once you get to other side of the PA / MD border to about the PA Turnpike it looks to be much colder with 0.40-.60" liquid with temps 23-26f so the results are the same on the other side of the PA / MD border relatively with less liquid so snow ratio as we move forward will be the talk for sure.

I don't think even right now that the storm track is set in stone even now and we will not know for sure until at the earliest 0z runs tonight.

Today's storm as someone said yesterday will leave the crumbs behind the railroad tracks if you will for the Monday storm to travel east northeast where that baroclinic zone / tracks sets up will determine the final outcome.

Also does the storm hand off energy to develop a coastal quick enough and close enough to give bonus snow as the coastal takes over.

At this point I think we still have more questions than answers from the model runs over night and first thing this morning.  I think we iron all this out one way or another in the next 24 hours for more model consistency. 

 

In Question:

1. Storm Track (I am not sure the storm is done shifting north or south at this time this is significant part of what will happen with the storm)

2. Does the coastal storm develop close enough and strong enough to give bonus snow (this is the one I am very less confident about)

3. How expansive is the precipitation field 

4. snow ratio vs liquid available to create more snow accumulations with less liquid due to colder temperatures (this may by the biggest ingredient in PA and Central NJ points northbound.

My first Call: (Subject to Change but as I see it now)

Through Central and Southern Lancaster County, Through Central and Southern Chester County straight east through much of Delaware County, over to just north of Atlantic City 6-8" of snow.

north of the turnpike 76 / 276 4-6"

Allentown, Leigh Valley over to Trenton 3-5"

Poconos Tunnel north 1-3" 

NYC coating to 1"

[Violentweatherfan]

From what I understand is this is an overrunning event. Moisture won’t come from coastal redevelopment. Models pushing this south are picking up on a “lobe” from the PV above Maine is what might be causing the southward trend 

[ChescoWx]

Welp at least the ICON is a bit further north....if we are looking for the snowier solutions.....the trend on the ensembles is telling IMHO

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Welp at least the ICON is a bit further north....if we are looking for the snowier solutions.....the trend on the ensembles is telling IMHO

We all still get accumulating snow. And that's the odd part about popping into some other subforums South of us...almost everyone will see accumulating snow but people are in some sort of panic. Guess ppl are banking on the heaviest banding. That's always the bonus jackpot. But just adding onto seasonal totals is a win in my book. Take what you can get and never be disappointed with accumulating snow.

[ChescoWx]

The 12km NAM at the end of it's range looks to be a bit further north with it's model snow....

[ChescoWx]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We all still get accumulating snow. And that's the odd part about popping into some other subforums South of us...almost everyone will see accumulating snow but people are in some sort of panic. Guess ppl are banking on the heaviest banding. That's always the bonus jackpot. But just adding onto seasonal totals is a win in my book. Take what you can get and never be disappointed with accumulating snow.

Agreed Steve I suspect from the PA Turnpike south to MD border is a solid 2" to 4" with an inch or 2 up to the ABE area. But a sharp cutoff to the northeast of there...

[anthonyweather]

The models have to get through tonight’s  clipper for any clarity. Otherwise the ensembles are chasing the OP. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

The models have to get through tonight’s  clipper for any clarity. Otherwise the ensembles are chasing the OP. 

Also have to wait for the actual system to develop near Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon. Usually a crapshoot until the main player is actually on the map. We've seen some significant swings historically in these situations. Jan 96 was the biggest where 48bhrs before the system finally came together then guidance bumped the heaviest banding N 100 miles. It happens.

Eta: I am not comparing this system to Jan 96 just using that banding shift as an example

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

The 12km NAM at the end of it's range looks to be a bit further north with it's model snow....

Yeah that's a notable jump....maybe the NAM scores a win?

[Albedoman]

I will repeat for the naysayers below.  Analyze all you want. Tonights 's 0z  runs will be exciting for most of you. Has been a few years waiting. The NAM will be the usual suspect. The northward trend at the end of the run is very promising for the philly area.

Posted 12 hours ago

I have repeatly posted  the last 3-5 days, plz wait until the 0z runs tonight. Thats where the W PAC data gets really  ingested  into the models for the first time. Anyone analyzing every 4-6 hour model run will work themselves into an utter  panic attack. This is from 30+ years of modelology experience. Tomorrow nights 0z runs should be quite exciting after this clipper swings by and leaves a trail of bread crumbs to follow for the next snow event. Thats where the true path should come to fruition for next weeks storm. 

[LVblizzard]

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Also have to wait for the actual system to develop near Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon. Usually a crapshoot until the main player is actually on the map. We've seen some significant swings historically in these situations. Jan 96 was the biggest where 48bhrs before the system finally came together then guidance bumped the heaviest banding N 100 miles. It happens.

Eta: I am not comparing this system to Jan 96 just using that banding shift as an example

Happened somewhat in Jan. 2016 too. 4-5 days out a lot of the models started to shift south and some even missed the Philly area. Then 2-3 days out the slow north trend began again and it ended up being a historic storm for all of us.

[JTA66]

Windshield wiper effect...patience!

M/D line on south has always looked like ground zero for this event. But I see no reason atm why we won't see accumulating snow on Monday.

In the meantime, the HRRR still likes this afternoon.  

[BBasile]

Most of the models have me getting at least 3 inches.  Good news, considering I'd be thrilled with 2.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, BBasile said:

Most of the models have me getting at least 3 inches.  Good news, considering I'd be thrilled with 2.  

I just deferred to my wife and she confirmed adamantly that she too would be thrilled getting at least 3 inches. I really hope she was talking weather...pretty sure 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

The 12km NAM at the end of it's range looks to be a bit further north with it's model snow....

lol Nam band looks much tighter smaller if you would 

[zenmsav6810]

Wiggum Rule holding serve

[ChescoWx]

 For those anxiously awaiting the WXSIM snow forecasts for EN....the wait is over!  WXSIM now mixes the GFS EURO and NAM to make it's forecast.                                                                                                                                                         WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at  9:00 AM Jan 3, 2025
 _______________________________________________________________________________
 
 Today: Partly to mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy
 in the afternoon. High 34. Wind chill around 26. Wind west around 5 mph.
 
 Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming fair to partly cloudy after
 midnight. A chance of snow. Low 25. Wind chill ranging from 16 to 27. Wind
 west-northwest around 5 mph in the evening, becoming 9 mph, gusting to 17 mph,
 after midnight. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about a
 quarter inch.
 
 Monday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. Snow likely. High 29.
 Wind northwest around 3 mph in the morning, becoming northeast in the afternoon.
 Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly
 around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches.
 
 Monday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight, with
 areas of light frost likely. Patchy light fog in the evening. Snow likely. Low
 25. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 20. Wind north around 8 mph, gusting to 17
 mph, in the evening, becoming 12 mph, gusting to 22 mph, after midnight. Chance
 of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a
 quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches.

[ChescoWx]

[LVblizzard]

12z NAM comes in line with the model consensus. Heavy snow stays south of Philly and I-80 on north gets nada.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

12z NAM comes in line with the model consensus. Heavy snow stays south of Philly and I-80 on north gets nada.

Horrible trend

[Kevin Reilly]

3 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

lol the band keeps shrinking clearly the NAM is only worried about frontogenetic forcing 

[MacChump]

check out ellinwood's map in the midatlantic forum...also, make sure you tell them all you hope it ticks just a bit north, they like that

[MacChump]

30 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Initial snow forecast for January 5-6 (late Sunday into Monday). Favoring the cluster of more northern solutions overall, with some mixing issues showing up from D.C. southward (but not before a decent amount of snow). Euro's more southern track is certainly something to keep an eye on. Main concerns are with potential mixing in the southern areas cutting into totals, and sharpening up the northern gradient once there's better confidence in the track.

 

[Violentweatherfan]

1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

I will repeat for the naysayers below.  Analyze all you want. Tonights 's 0z  runs will be exciting for most of you. Has been a few years waiting. The NAM will be the usual suspect. The northward trend at the end of the run is very promising for the philly area.

 

Posted 12 hours ago

I have repeatly posted  the last 3-5 days, plz wait until the 0z runs tonight. Thats where the W PAC data gets really  ingested  into the models for the first time. Anyone analyzing every 4-6 hour model run will work themselves into an utter  panic attack. This is from 30+ years of modelology experience. Tomorrow nights 0z runs should be quite exciting after this clipper swings by and leaves a trail of bread crumbs to follow for the next snow event. Thats where the true path should come to fruition for next weeks storm. 

What are the models using now rather than actual data from the w pac

[jwilson]

This storm is a nuisance but not in the way you meant it.  Being snow starved and this is what we're left to track?  How annoying.

[LVblizzard]

3 minutes ago, jwilson said:

This storm is a nuisance but not in the way you meant it.  Being snow starved and this is what we're left to track?  How annoying.

December was halfway decent so I wouldn’t consider us “snow starved.” But yes this storm is a really annoying one.

[penndotguy]

I’m pretty sure we see the North trend will come back tonight maybe not in a big way but hopefully history repeats itself that’s been the theme in the past. This clipper system might pave the way for Monday system. 

[Kevin Reilly]

24 minutes ago, MacChump said:

 

Totally based off 0z and lesser extent 6z runs call it forecasting model run to model run but it’s a first call I’m assuming I don’t have a problem with it but it’s perhaps becoming clear adjustments are incoming?

[LVblizzard]

12z models so far (NAM, RGEM, ICON) aren’t horrible for us. They all get accumulating snow into pretty much the entire Mt. Holly CWA, except maybe Sussex County NJ. But another tick south and I will start to get very worried.

[Kevin Reilly]

8 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

12z models so far (NAM, RGEM, ICON) aren’t horrible for us. They all get accumulating snow into pretty much the entire Mt. Holly CWA, except maybe Sussex County NJ. But another tick south and I will start to get very worried.

My thinking this is where south trend halts and Euro perhaps the gfs  begins the bounce back towards final northern solution bringing warning level snow to Southern Pa and SE Pa Jersey south of Trenton