ChescoWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 By 1pm on the 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 18z north 0z south 18z north 0z south.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: By 1pm on the 0z NAM I will take my 4" and double my current seasonal snowfall thank you very much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Suspect most would be most pleased if the 0z NAM was close to reality (not that I believe it) but very nice run! Still snowing at 8pm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3.3 equals the seasons best of 3.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Does kuchera take into account cold temps aloft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, yankeex777 said: Does kuchera take into account cold temps aloft? Seems to do better with adjusting for temps to show better or less than 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Suspect most would be most pleased if the 0z NAM was close to reality (not that I believe it) but very nice run! Still snowing at 8pm This map is essentially my current thoughts about how this will play out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I’m still going with 2-4 imby, my head is spinning with all the N/S trends it’s going to interesting to see which camp scores. Tomorrow should be fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 FV3 hammers SE PA with round 2 from the ULL and developing coastal. Much N. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, yankeex777 said: Does kuchera take into account cold temps aloft? I came across this explanation: The Kuchera ratio can be especially useful when temperatures are close to freezing, as it can correctly reduce snowfall estimates below 10:1. However, the Kuchera ratio is not perfect, as the true snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR) depends on many factors, including cloud and precipitation physics. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 RGEM is still ridiculously south. I do remember it being the last model to come around in Jan. 2016 if that means anything… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 A reminder of the local Mount Holly CWA Winter Storm Warning criteria... Red requires 6 inches of snow and blue requires 5. Winter Weather Advisories are a little bit different, but most areas require 2 or 3 inches of snow. I would think most counties under a watch right now get upgraded to a warning by the morning, maybe not Burlington or Ocean in NJ but we'll see. I still believe the northern guidance (i.e. GFS and NAM's) meet in the middle with the southern guidance (RGEM, Euro, ICON). If that is the case, then just Delaware, Chester, and the southern NJ counties will be under a warning. Also... I am not a Mount Holly meteorologist so I am not speaking on their behalf, though I should hopefully (fingers crossed) be an NWS meteorologist at another office here in the west in a few months... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, Newman said: A reminder of the local Mount Holly CWA Winter Storm Warning criteria... Red requires 6 inches of snow and blue requires 5. Winter Weather Advisories are a little bit different, but most areas require 2 or 3 inches of snow. I would think most counties under a watch right now get upgraded to a warning by the morning, maybe not Burlington or Ocean in NJ but we'll see. I still believe the northern guidance (i.e. GFS and NAM's) meet in the middle with the southern guidance (RGEM, Euro, ICON). If that is the case, then just Delaware, Chester, and the southern NJ counties will be under a warning. Also... I am not a Mount Holly meteorologist so I am not speaking on their behalf, though I should hopefully (fingers crossed) be an NWS meteorologist at another office here in the west in a few months... Thought blue areas were requiring 4” T remembering from distant past off the top of my head? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said: Thought blue areas were requiring 4” T remembering from distant past off the top of my head? The blue area is 5 inches. Increased from 4 inches several years ago. The red area is 6 inches. This is for warning criteria. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Thought blue areas were requiring 4” T remembering from distant past off the top of my head? https://www.weather.gov/phi/criteria-winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 45 minutes ago, penndotguy said: I’m still going with 2-4 imby, my head is spinning with all the N/S trends it’s going to interesting to see which camp scores. Tomorrow should be fun My final call remains from 2 days ago- 2-4" for the LV . Hoping for lollipops and higher ratios which would be nice. Norlun trough? My real hopes starts on the 11th - a real plow buster of snow events in the works for the next two weeks. The best thing happening in the models which absolutley nobody has dwelled on right now - at least 15- 30 days of continous snow cover is a good bet - a real winter in my book that I have not seen in a decade. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Latest NBM here’s some Info, https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm appears most of the data comes from the latest HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Think we're looking pretty good... 26f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GFS close to 18z for what it's worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 If anything, this stuff should stick to everything immediately... Still going 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I’ll go with 4-6” down here in Media Delaware County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 My rough thoughts right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Euro with a nice nudge north. Canadian and ukie all alone being so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, coastal front said: Euro with a nice nudge north. Canadian and ukie all alone being so far south. Euro came north with the heavy stuff but for those of us on the northern fringes it was unchanged from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Winter Storm Watch down graded to a Winter Weather Advisory. What a joke. Ardmore, Montgomery Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 28 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said: Winter Storm Watch down graded to a Winter Weather Advisory. What a joke. Ardmore, Montgomery Country. Same down here on Barnegat Bay. They clearly see something that isn't progged by models. Has me a bit confused, but they're the pros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WWA for 2-4” hoisted out here in Western Berks, I’ll be happy with that I doubt we see anything from the low as it develops. I think this maybe the beginning of fun times in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, penndotguy said: WWA for 2-4” hoisted out here in Western Berks, I’ll be happy with that I doubt we see anything from the low as it develops. I think this maybe the beginning of fun times in these parts. Same, WWA for two to four inches. It will stick immediately which is a positive... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Here is my first best guess of what is coming. I’ll adjust later this afternoon as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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