Ralph Wiggum Posted Saturday at 09:34 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:34 PM 16 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: I generally like to do that but the RGEM is a short range model despite not being super hi-res. So I feel like I can’t completely toss it like I am with the UKMET. While shorter range it is still ran off of its parent global initialization parameters. I dont consider it a true meso model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted Saturday at 09:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:49 PM 18z GFS is definitely a touch better for SE PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted Saturday at 09:59 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:59 PM Those on the northern fringes of the snow field should definitely remain cautious. Looking at soundings across the LV and Berks as the precip moves in around 12z on Monday, we're looking at 12 degree dew point depressions. The WAA and moisture advection helps to close that gap quickly, but there won't be any time to waste with regards to appreciable QPF because it's a quick hitter overall... in and out in only 6 hours or so between 12z and 18z on Monday. If the secondary trailing surface low can move north, that would extend things. But as of now, that's looking unlikely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted Saturday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:00 PM 9 minutes ago, Newman said: 18z GFS is definitely a touch better for SE PA I'd take another full day of north bumps like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted Saturday at 10:09 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:09 PM 7 minutes ago, Newman said: Those on the northern fringes of the snow field should definitely remain cautious. Looking at soundings across the LV and Berks as the precip moves in around 12z on Monday, we're looking at 12 degree dew point depressions. The WAA and moisture advection helps to close that gap quickly, but there won't be any time to waste with regards to appreciable QPF because it's a quick hitter overall... in and out in only 6 hours or so between 12z and 18z on Monday. If the secondary trailing surface low can move north, that would extend things. But as of now, that's looking unlikely I was curious About the dew points being so dry right now I’m at 8, so they should rise then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Saturday at 10:19 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 10:19 PM 21z RAP gets warning level snow almost to the Lehigh Valley. Not saying it’s right but it’s certainly interesting. Really looking forward to tonight’s 0z suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Saturday at 11:11 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:11 PM 50 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: 21z RAP gets warning level snow almost to the Lehigh Valley. Not saying it’s right but it’s certainly interesting. Really looking forward to tonight’s 0z suite. It’s all keeping it very interesting at least. Let’s just say this wasn’t really happening lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted Saturday at 11:29 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:29 PM start time anyone ? I am driving from NY to Charlotte and might begin early Sunday morning to avoid any of this Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Saturday at 11:42 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 11:42 PM Euro north a little as well. This is what I was expecting to happen since models usually overdo confluence. Now let’s see how far north we can go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted yesterday at 12:25 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:25 AM 55 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: start time anyone ? I am driving from NY to Charlotte and might begin early Sunday morning to avoid any of this Monday If you go tomorrow you should be okay. Looks like a mid to late evening start in Virginia, later up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 12:27 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:27 AM 45 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Euro north a little as well. This is what I was expecting to happen since models usually overdo confluence. Now let’s see how far north we can go. Sref also north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted yesterday at 12:29 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:29 AM 5 hours ago, MacChump said: Still thinking 4 inches is a reasonable expectation here, shouldn’t have mixing issues and could see some banding on the northern edge…can’t remember the last time we hit 6 inches here so a little disappointing but what are you gonna do I feel better about 4 now, with the trends earlier I was leaning 2 to 3. Should be interesting tomorrow (hopefully in a good way!) as we get closer and the storm evolves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted yesterday at 12:40 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:40 AM 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Sref also north Hmm that’s also 10:1 temps around 22-25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted yesterday at 12:45 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:45 AM 19 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: If you go tomorrow you should be okay. Looks like a mid to late evening start in Virginia, later up here. Thats what I am thinking but THANKS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted yesterday at 01:14 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:14 AM 28 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Thats what I am thinking but THANKS You're welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted yesterday at 01:35 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:35 AM Hrrr is way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted yesterday at 01:44 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:44 AM 8 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Hrrr is way north Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted yesterday at 01:44 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:44 AM 7 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Hrrr is way north Quite the wide swath of snow as well, although it is still showing a zone of heavier snow near and south of Philly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted yesterday at 01:46 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:46 AM Hrrr smoke job for just about everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 01:46 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:46 AM Check out the Rap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted yesterday at 01:47 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:47 AM Primary gets almost into SW pa this screams hand off to the coast and it will here on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 01:48 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:48 AM Mesos continue to expand the heaviest to the Northern side. 24hrs+ to go still and we are getting decent jumps N with precip from all the hi res models. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 01:49 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:49 AM Even NYC is into accumulating snows now. Things are escalating rather quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted yesterday at 01:51 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:51 AM 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Even NYC is into accumulating snows now. Things are escalating rather quickly. The HRRR maps look like the Euro runs 3 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted yesterday at 01:53 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:53 AM Feel like I can't get excited until the NAM starts looking like the HRRR.... we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted yesterday at 02:09 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:09 AM Geez thats border line warning criteria for Berks, can it actually be onto something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted yesterday at 02:13 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:13 AM 0z NAM not gonna make many friends here... Shifted south in response to the confluence lobe being significantly further south this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted yesterday at 02:15 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:15 AM NAM has 3" line up to Turnpike at 8am Monday.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted yesterday at 02:18 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:18 AM 0z NAM has 6 inch line up thru almost half of Chester County at 11am 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted yesterday at 02:21 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:21 AM Small tick south on both NAMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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