penndotguy Posted Saturday at 05:59 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:59 PM 56 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: From Meteorologist Drew Anderson at Fox 29 (If I was forecasting this is what mine would look like) That can’t be right, I’m only in the 2” mark Next!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Saturday at 06:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:00 PM Euro has me in the half inch range the same as yesterday haha Yesterday was a heavy trace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted Saturday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:01 PM 39 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Call me crazy but I still think the Lehigh Valley gets an advisory level event while warning level snow approaches Philly. I’ve seen these types of storms come 50 miles north in the last day or two too many times before. It feels like a matter of when it’ll happen, not if. My gut tells me the same, I think 2-4 will be a good call for Berks, southern Lehigh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted Saturday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:30 PM 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: Trend has been the same here, the modeled pile size has been shrinking. Really hoping for a reversal of the south/drier trend, as are most of us. Whatever we get will stick, so if it snows, there will be pics! Still thinking 4 inches is a reasonable expectation here, shouldn’t have mixing issues and could see some banding on the northern edge…can’t remember the last time we hit 6 inches here so a little disappointing but what are you gonna do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted Saturday at 06:44 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:44 PM 2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: Could it be because the air is drier and colder that the storm is running into? Confluence is forcing dry air eating up potential accumulation along with a weaker surface low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted Saturday at 06:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:49 PM 2 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Confluence is forcing dry air eating up potential accumulation along with a weaker surface low I’ve been a victim of that damn confluence zone and it’s not fun, only to have snow falling 5 miles south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted Saturday at 06:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:50 PM Just now, penndotguy said: I’ve been a victim of that damn confluence zone and it’s not fun, only to have snow falling 5 miles south Yeah man get it out of here. Any way you can plow it away into upstate New York Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted Saturday at 07:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:27 PM 2 hours ago, LVblizzard said: Call me crazy but I still think the Lehigh Valley gets an advisory level event while warning level snow approaches Philly. I’ve seen these types of storms come 50 miles north in the last day or two too many times before. It feels like a matter of when it’ll happen, not if. I said this same thing yesterday. The confluence will hopefully weaken a little as the LP moves slighlty northeast of the projected path possibly creating higher snow ratios for the LV. This storm will also be rembembered for ushering into our area the very windy and dry cold weather for the entire week. Freeze up the lakes and river time. Ice jams later in Jan/Feb? Hope people have humidifiers in their houses and alot of chapstick as baby the static electricity will be unreal. The heating bill will skyrocket after this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Saturday at 07:35 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:35 PM Nobody here will like the new DT map lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Saturday at 07:37 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:37 PM Currently 31f Looks like on the water vapor map the confluence is now slowly pulling away to the northeast. Looks like the back edge of that very strong confluence is lifting ne in a line from Pottstown over to say Langhorne, PA. I will notice here that the winds have died down dramatically here in Media last 30 minutes or so we are no longer getting those strong gusts past 30-35 mph now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Saturday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:38 PM 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Nobody here will like the new DT map lol I am sure it shows 1-3" down here in Delaware County which at this time will not be far off outside of cold snow ratios that we don't know about yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Saturday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:42 PM 3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I am sure it shows 1-3" down here in Delaware County which at this time will not be far off outside of cold snow ratios that we don't know about yet. Basically yeah the 3" line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Saturday at 07:45 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 07:45 PM 18z HRRR looks decent for us. Moderate to heavy snow up to the Poconos on Monday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Saturday at 07:47 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 07:47 PM Still snowing at this frame. We’d all be happy with this. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Saturday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:49 PM 3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: 18z HRRR looks decent for us. Moderate to heavy snow up to the Poconos on Monday morning. I sure hope the other models follow suit! Let's do this!!! The north trend has commenced, and the confluence is leaving Quakertown to Langhorne, PA to Long Beach Island NJ off to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Saturday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:49 PM 4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Still snowing at this frame. We’d all be happy with this. Very happy!!! I am so glad that DT put that 3" snowfall map out for Delaware County! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Saturday at 07:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:52 PM Hrrr at this range is as accurate as the Farmers almanac 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Saturday at 07:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:54 PM 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Hrrr at this range is as accurate as the Farmers almanac Now that's funny!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Saturday at 07:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:58 PM HRRR the “Farmers Almanac” does have support from the NBM and SREF lol FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted Saturday at 08:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:15 PM 15 hours ago, Albedoman said: First and last call 2-4 inches for the LV if we are really lucky with the snow ratios. Just enough to get the ground white. Time to put this storm to rest for the LV. No drought buster for sure. From Philly west to Harrisburg 6-8 in is a good bet --Warning level for them- advisory for the LV. This storm is a Ohio Valley special. From Indianapolis to Columbus to Washington, they get buried. They deserve it as they have been snow starved for years too. Our turn will becoming around Martin Luther King Day. Cold and dry will become the norm like the December 20th-25th time period. Holy Moly the 12z went bat sheet crazy on potential snow events up to MLK day as seen below: I was right on my outlook if this comes to fruition. Looks like we get ours here in the next two weeks. Next Sunday looking nice too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Saturday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:20 PM 18z Nam changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Saturday at 08:27 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 08:27 PM NAM is essentially unchanged from 12z at the surface. 3km NAM, however, has jumped north, bringing warning level snow to Philly, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Saturday at 08:29 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:29 PM 18z NAM with it's typical NAMmed run with an increase in snow amounts over 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Saturday at 08:35 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:35 PM 5 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: 18z NAM with it's typical NAMmed run with an increase in snow amounts over 12z Yep liquid available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted Saturday at 08:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:45 PM 15 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: 18z NAM with it's typical NAMmed run with an increase in snow amounts over 12z It's still nice to see some increase in the northern areas even if it's overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Saturday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:52 PM 41 minutes ago, Albedoman said: 38" and patience pays off for Ralph Wrong thread though yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Saturday at 09:04 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 09:04 PM Meanwhile the RGEM ticks south and screws over everyone north of the turnpike. I genuinely have no idea what to think at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Saturday at 09:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:15 PM Pretty much as expected all the meso models are initializing better and seeing the bump N as we get closer. NAM 3k, RAP, HRRR, SREFs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Saturday at 09:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:15 PM 11 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Meanwhile the RGEM ticks south and screws over everyone north of the turnpike. I genuinely have no idea what to think at this point. Go with the mesos at this range 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Saturday at 09:17 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 09:17 PM Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Go with the mesos at this range I generally like to do that but the RGEM is a short range model despite not being super hi-res. So I feel like I can’t completely toss it like I am with the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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