mattinpa Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 14 minutes ago, Heisy said: Models reverted back to what I expected. I still am holding out hope for a rogue fronto band that travels farther N than expected and surprises some folks, but right now 1-3” is my call for Philly. . I personally would go 2-4” with room to go up or down. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I personally would go 2-4” with room to go up or down.Makes sense I could roll with that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: Makes sense I could roll with that . Any hope for up here before the Nina pattern sets in at the end of the month ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 See if the gfs moving lobe over Maine out makes a difference starting at 18z look closely there’s a nudge northeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Looks like she's gonna trend N. Lobe over Maine was way overmodeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like she's gonna trend N. Lobe over Maine was way overmodeled There’s also some confluence we have to deal with in the upper Midwest. Although that could be related to that lobe over Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: We are the real weenies!!! Holding out hope to the final round, but it feels right to do. pixe dust flurries here 36f so victory! Methinks we are going to like the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Not sure if we’re about to fully get NAM’d or not but this run should be better than 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Not sure if we’re about to fully get NAM’d or not but this run should be better than 12z. Much better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Much better. Ends up being a little better but the MA forum still wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Quite the cut off on the NAM 4" at KPTW to 11" at KMQS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 16 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Ends up being a little better but the MA forum still wins. It’ll be a sleet bomb for them soon enough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 That confluence actually ends up quite a bit further south on the 18z NAM. But the vort itself seems to be more potent and juiced up and that northern confluence almost tries to phase into the backside of our upper-level shortwave trough. So it kicks up the heights ahead of our storm just a bit as it's passing through, which helps to increase positive vorticity advection and hence we see that secondary surface low spawn as it slides east associated with the vort pass. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Quite the cut off on the NAM 4" at KPTW to 11" at KMQSWith 2 full days to go before gametime, we all should be good with where we sit. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 And it looked like snow would continue beyond hour 84. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Did we get NAM'd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 https://x.com/chris_fukudawx/status/1875285611466363212?s=46 Ok fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 54 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: It’ll be a sleet bomb for them soon enough Actually, those higher amounts in DCA Baltimore and across Delaware into South Jersey very well could be that warm nose aloft causing sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS looks good for much of SE PA 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18z gfs delivers the goods. Seeing a different evolution to the system now with a quasi phase and coastal redevelopment. Interesting changes in regards to the confluence allowing some room for the system to breathe and not shear. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Newman said: GFS looks good for much of SE PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Confluence forces dry air to descend and limits QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Reading gets .5 qpf and .4 goes up to Allentown this run. Small and subtle jumps with the northern extent of precip. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 50 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: https://x.com/chris_fukudawx/status/1875285611466363212?s=46 Ok fun Cool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Deja vu GFS 18z yesterday with the north push. Is it real stay tuned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Deja vu GFS 18z yesterday with the north push. Is it real stay tuned. I'm not sure it's the fronto forcing that lifted north or if it is the effects from this new coastal development. Shame it can't stall out under the block or crawl at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just a side note....those totals out in the midwest are crazy. This thing is juicing up as it gets closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Jackpot line to me looks like RT. 422 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The timing is excellent now the snow starts 10ish Monday morning and goes through dark. I approve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm not sure it's the fronto forcing that lifted north or if it is the effects from this new coastal development. Shame it can't stall out under the block or crawl at least It's slower so it gets to crawl northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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