ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Latest HRRR for this PM tries to bring a couple inches to some.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:34 PM, ChescoWx said: Latest HRRR for this PM tries to bring a couple inches to some.... Expand Wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:34 PM, ChescoWx said: Latest HRRR for this PM tries to bring a couple inches to some.... Expand The orientation is completely changed on this model from 3 pm yesterday a NW to SE flow is very apparent on this map now can this NW flow move out quick enough for Monday think this set up holds the keys and what’s going on up north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 GFS gives SE PA weenies hope again. Warning level snow up to Quakertown. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 One thing to note is the orientation of the vort lobe north of Maine plays as much a factor as the strength of it, if not more. The models showing that in a zonal W -> E orientation allow it to squash heights much more effectively. Those that keep it more NW -> SE oriented (i.e. the recent 12z GFS) allow for *just* enough space for our system to amplify to get appreciable snows into SE PA 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:57 PM, LVblizzard said: GFS gives SE PA weenies hope again. Warning level snow up to Quakertown.Yes, we take.Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 12:00 PM, Violentweatherfan said: From what I understand is this is an overrunning event. Moisture won’t come from coastal redevelopment. Models pushing this south are picking up on a “lobe” from the PV above Maine is what might be causing the southward trend Expand On 1/3/2025 at 3:58 PM, Newman said: One thing to note is the orientation of the vort lobe north of Maine plays as much a factor as the strength of it, if not more. The models showing that in a zonal W -> E orientation allow it to squash heights much more effectively. Those that keep it more NW -> SE oriented (i.e. the recent 12z GFS) allow for *just* enough space for our system to amplify to get appreciable snows into SE PA Expand MA forum mentioned that the it’s missing on this latest run on GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:59 PM, mitchnick said: Gfs loses the lobe over Maine for the most part this run. Expand On 1/3/2025 at 4:10 PM, CAPE said: It's there, but gets stretched into a vorticity ribbon as a strong jet streak moves overhead. Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 4:23 PM, Violentweatherfan said: Expand And this is precisely why nobody should claim victory or failure too prematurely. This is a rather delicate setup and it will not take much at all to turn this into a pleasant surprise for some. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Canadian won't make any friends here. Shifted south again with the heavier axis of snow. Still gets 2-3" into the majority of the sub but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Feel like this happens with north trends that they kind of settle so to speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Wouldn't you know it, a close friend of mine just booked a flight out of Allentown (to Florida) for Monday at 4pm. I really wish she would have asked me first, or at least checked the weather. Here I was, all hyped to track this storm, and now I'm just worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 UK is a nut punch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 4:56 PM, CoolHandMike said: Wouldn't you know it, a close friend of mine just booked a flight out of Allentown (to Florida) for Monday at 4pm. I really wish she would have asked me first, or at least checked the weather. Here I was, all hyped to track this storm, and now I'm just worried. Expand Might be a flurry in Allentown at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 5:01 PM, anthonyweather said: UK is a nut punch Expand It’s called the crazy uncle for a reason. As much as it sucks it’s still better than the abomination it showed last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 5:01 PM, anthonyweather said: Might be a flurry in Allentown at this point Expand I would be very surprised if this storm trended down to just flurries and snow showers for us. In the Poconos, sure, but I’m confident accumulating snow will get to the Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:34 PM, ChescoWx said: Latest HRRR for this PM tries to bring a couple inches to some.... Expand I hope so I sit right under the number 2.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 5:01 PM, anthonyweather said: Might be a flurry in Allentown at this point Expand Yeah I should have mentioned that it's not the flight I'm worried about. She's driving from Phoenixville during what could be the first real snow any of us have seen in a while. You know how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 DT will be trimming back when he see's the new euro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Going to sleep through most of my inch of snow Monday morning, next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 6:02 PM, RedSky said: Going to sleep through most of my inch of snow Monday morning, next Expand What next? Next year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 6:04 PM, Birds~69 said: What next? Next year? Expand Good question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 After our next 2 events (today and Monday) - Expect another storm to track for next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 6:06 PM, RedSky said: Good question Expand I'm starving for a little clipper at this point... Remember when they used to happen a couple times a year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 6:09 PM, Birds~69 said: I'm starving for a little clipper at this point... Remember when they used to happen a couple times a year? Expand Looks like a band setting up just south of the Turnpike in Chester County so there is that heading due east. Also, I am still willing to bet( not too much money though) that models tick northbound tonight when our system today leaves stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 6:08 PM, ChescoWx said: After our next 2 events (today and Monday) - Expect another storm to track for next weekend. Expand Let me know what the gefs say and I'll consider tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 6:15 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Let me know what the gefs say and I'll consider tracking Expand This is now the patience stage then right? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 If your not patient it's this stage lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Models reverted back to what I expected. I still am holding out hope for a rogue fronto band that travels farther N than expected and surprises some folks, but right now 1-3” is my call for Philly. . 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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