LVblizzard Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It now appears pretty certain that it will snow on Monday. So I don’t think a thread can curse us. The question is, how much? Some models, like the Canadian, keep the heavy snow to our south in Baltimore and DC. While the GFS has a MECS for all of us. It’ll be an interesting weekend of tracking, hopefully we can all get in on the fun with this one. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Here's a comparison of the early 0z runs. The Canadian trended slightly stronger with our vort, but it's still positively tilted and not closed off. The GFS and ICON, however, close it off and slide it under the region. The timing is almost identical, and the confluence is lifted far enough north on almost all models to leave room for this to come north. The difference comes down to how potent the shortwave is and if it turns neutral or even negatively tilted 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It looks pretty good for our region for at least a moderate event. Would like to see Euro come north a little and GFS stop going north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 DT first guess map Not much love for eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, tcutter said: DT first guess map Not much love for eastern PA That's gotta be based on old data. The models have all been trending north for 3-4 runs now. Unless he knows something we don't. Which he probably does, I'm not a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, CoolHandMike said: That's gotta be based on old data. The models have all been trending north for 3-4 runs now. Unless he knows something we don't. Which he probably does, I'm not a met. He just posted that about 10 minutes ago I was a little surprised by it myself but I thought it was worth sharing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Ukie says what snow lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3-6" for here as a first guess isn't bad. Only the GFS went hog wild so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 13 minutes ago, tcutter said: DT first guess map Not much love for eastern PA The 3" line all the way up to Easton is actually pretty bullish right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie says what snow Referred to as crazy uncle for a reason 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 27 minutes ago, tcutter said: DT first guess map Not much love for eastern PA WELL…If you’re old enough to recall what a “DT” was when we were adolescents⁉️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Canadian with a move south with heaviest totals from 12z and sharper cutoff to the NE than earlier run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 south and GFS north hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, RedSky said: 3 south and GFS north hmm We r prolly toast. Tho I sacrifice this one for the 2nd half January hecs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 JMA was old need the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, RedSky said: JMA was old need the 0z NAVGEM was north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAVGEM was north The 96hr NAM was north too right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, RedSky said: The 96hr NAM was north too right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 ECM south GFS can go to hell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Euro starts off fine but ends up positively tilting the trough as it approaches the Mid-Atlantic, as opposed to the GFS which amps it up and keeps it closed off. Pretty ugly run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM south GFS can go to hell Or maybe the gfs is right. I have no clue why everyone thinks the euro is some kind of a great model. Gfs has kicked its ass many times lately. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Or maybe the gfs is right. I have no clue why everyone thinks the euro is some kind of a great model. Gfs has kicked its ass many times lately. Eh the three better scoring models went south not a positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Eh the three better scoring models went south not a positive Of course but I remember a few instances where we all went with the euro and the gfs ended up being right . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 We lost the euro ensemble suite as well, this things knocking and banging and ready to blow a rod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I'm hugging the DT first guess yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Still 3 days until gametime. Thats an eternity in our sick hobby. I think we've seen the goalposts but will continue to see wobbles north or south. History would say this still wobbles back north. Maybe not gfs north but hopefully a nice compromise. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 NAM is slower/souther. Looks like we would still do well but it's the NAM at range. Let's see what the goofus does. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Welp the early death thread did its thing, I’ll settle for 2-4, 3-6 and have it hang around a few days. The big dog is coming it’s just gonna take patience. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Welp the early death thread did its thing, I’ll settle for 2-4, 3-6 and have it hang around a few days. The big dog is coming it’s just gonna take patience. Still a bit early to declare defeat imo. Still time. Like you said 3-6 is fine. Also whatever falls is not going anywhere anytime soon. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 We won't get shutout but we won't hit the jackpot clearly. Mid Atl turn and that is fine. Just get me a few inches Monday to fill my fix for now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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