blizzardmeiser Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: FWIW. From Joe Bastardi... "the axis of the heaviest snow looks like you take I-70 from the plains to BWI and then just extend it east. In this band about 150 miles wide is 6-12 inches of snow which is 10 to 1 south of the axis and up to 20 to 1 north of it. Some 15-inch lollipops will occur. " Prepare for storms and rumors of storms 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Capital Weather Gang article mentions the possibility of frontal enhancement in its latest article as "There are also some indications that the jet stream pattern and localized fronts may help intensify snow over our region". Has 35% of 3-6 for DC, 35% 6+ for DC, 20% 1-4 because mixing issues, and 10% chance of 1-4 for DC due to missing to the south. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/02/dc-region-snow-storm-forecast-ice-winter-weather/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_weather 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, blizzardmeiser said: Prepare for storms and rumors of storms looking forward to DT maps and Ellinwood maps. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: FWIW. From Joe Bastardi... "the axis of the heaviest snow looks like you take I-70 from the plains to BWI and then just extend it east. In this band about 150 miles wide is 6-12 inches of snow which is 10 to 1 south of the axis and up to 20 to 1 north of it. Some 15-inch lollipops will occur. " Also keeping in mind this whole conversation is bumping about 8-10 miles north each run in some cases could make for very interesting totals further north in the coldest of air in regards to those rations. I don’t think this is done bouncing around quite yet until at earliest this time tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just caught up. I’ve gone from 5-8” to 8-12” expectations after the 12z runs. Lets lock this in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I dropped from 9.3 at 06z to 5.0 at 12z on the Euro. It caved toward the GEM and GFS with the southern margin. It dropped qp in my area from .95" to .69" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Latest blend, 5-7”. Pretty much the same. About .5” north of Baltimore is from tomorrow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 43 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Just caught up. I’ve gone from 5-8” to 8-12” expectations after the 12z runs. Lets lock this in! That's a lot of snow. Here's hoping for solid 18z runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 From LWX Disco THE BIGGEST AREA OF FOCUS OF THE THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND, BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THEREFORE LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO A SNOWFALL AMOUNT AND PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST. WHILE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PROLONGED WARM NOSE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER SNOW TOTALS THAN SOME MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LIGHT SHIFT NORTH FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS CONTINUING TO SHOW A GOOD BIT OF DISCREPANCY. PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: From LWX Disco THE BIGGEST AREA OF FOCUS OF THE THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND, BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THEREFORE LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO A SNOWFALL AMOUNT AND PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST. WHILE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PROLONGED WARM NOSE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER SNOW TOTALS THAN SOME MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LIGHT SHIFT NORTH FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS CONTINUING TO SHOW A GOOD BIT OF DISCREPANCY. PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. We always flirt. Just gotta not fly too close to the sun 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 11 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: From LWX Disco THE BIGGEST AREA OF FOCUS OF THE THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND, BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THEREFORE LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO A SNOWFALL AMOUNT AND PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST. WHILE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PROLONGED WARM NOSE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER SNOW TOTALS THAN SOME MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LIGHT SHIFT NORTH FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS CONTINUING TO SHOW A GOOD BIT OF DISCREPANCY. PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. Lol models are always uncertain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We always flirt. Just gotta not fly too close to the sun In order to get larger totals we always live on the edge. Can't have boom without a potential bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 19 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: From LWX Disco THE BIGGEST AREA OF FOCUS OF THE THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND, BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THEREFORE LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO A SNOWFALL AMOUNT AND PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST. WHILE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PROLONGED WARM NOSE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER SNOW TOTALS THAN SOME MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LIGHT SHIFT NORTH FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS CONTINUING TO SHOW A GOOD BIT OF DISCREPANCY. PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. Now that's covering your azz. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Just now, mitchnick said: Now that's covering your azz. Yeah, they do that at the onset a lot. But on the flip side, I'm actually glad to see they just don't rip and read model and incorporate regional climo in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, they do that at the onset a lot. But on the flip side, I'm actually glad to see they just don't rip and read model and incorporate regional climo in. ya know what we say, "our best events are when LWX is playing catchup..." it is funny that perhaps the best meteorological agency in the world comes in and says something totally reasonable and we say "meh" lol. I honestly read that as very much in line with the 6" NBM... just probably not gonna hit 10"+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 NAM looking juicy at 60. A little less cold push on the east coast than 12Z. But minimal changes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Bastards 1 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12 minutes ago, Ruin said: Lol models are always uncertain They aren’t uncertain on the overall scheme that will unfold but small shifts in certain features can lead to detrimental shifts in QPF/Snow/Ptypes. NWP is not exact and will never be exact. It’s a complex physical process that so far we have done a crazy good job at depicting with better leads as we move through time. This storm has been on the radar for over a week….this was a very rare occurrence even 5-10 years ago, but here we are. The key is being able to parse details and understand the overall footprint of what is going on to depict these outcomes. Probabilities and utilizing ensembles who have different parameterization baked in to offer different results pending other variables are importantly in forecast things with greater certainty while also showing a probabilitistic outcome which is important for stakeholders. Considering the circumstance, NWP has been pretty good with this event and wavering at leads is par for the course. It’s up to humans to know how to interpret the data. There is no magically perfect solution to everything and until we solve every intricate detail that pertains to meteorological phenomena, we will never ever ever get it 100% on the nose. This isn’t finance when you count money and the answers are finite properties that can be discerned through analyzing accounts and what not. This is a complex, physically driven paradigm that takes more than just regurgitation when it comes to providing a forecast. If you’re looking for something more concrete in analysis, you are in the wrong hobby/profession. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I see we've reached the 'model disclaimer' portion of the storm. Next should 'gnashing of teeth' phase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I think LWX is smart to call out potential for sleet/freezing rain because that will have bigger impacts on the Monday morning commute than an all snow event. Anytime we're flirting with the mix/changeover line, it has to be addressed and made known to the public. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Pummeled 2 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Capital Weather Gang article mentions the possibility of frontal enhancement in its latest article as "There are also some indications that the jet stream pattern and localized fronts may help intensify snow over our region". Has 35% of 3-6 for DC, 35% 6+ for DC, 20% 1-4 because mixing issues, and 10% chance of 1-4 for DC due to missing to the south. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/02/dc-region-snow-storm-forecast-ice-winter-weather/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_weather 0”=5% 1-3”-20% 4-6”-60% 7 or greater 15% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Now that's covering your azz. They said nothing other than we can’t forecast 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I think LWX is smart to call out potential for sleet/freezing rain because that will have bigger impacts on the Monday morning commute than an all snow event. Anytime we're flirting with the mix/changeover line, it has to be addressed and made known to the public. Absolutely 100% agree, but it's not showing up in the grid forecasts. Everything I'm seeing is all snow. It's almost like they're talking directly to us nerds or something, i.e. "Stop focusing on the snow maps." 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Where is the energy located now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Absolutely 100% agree, but it's not showing up in the grid forecasts. Everything I'm seeing is all snow. It's almost like they're talking directly to us nerds or something, i.e. "Stop focusing on the snow maps." Yes, but if the storm were to take a further north course say as currently modeled continues nudging north you do introduce the possibility of sleet, freezing rain and mixed precipitation. You often do get a warm nose of air upstairs off of the Atlantic that's normal climo stuff around here especially if the storm center is nearby while transferring to another low off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Can we like...not post these maps before they're finished running? I know it's just a panel more here and it's the NAM, but others have been doing the same with the snow maps. Those were point in time maps, not cumulative, so why would it matter if the model is still running? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: DCA official measurement T-1”=10% 1-3”-20% 3-5.9” - 45% 6" or greater - 25% I’m going to venture that if, just if, BWI and IAD and Andrew’s come in at 7” then DCA will be 4.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Icon significant north move 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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