TSSN+ Posted Thursday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:38 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Not sure it went that far norther? I think it just got wetter for you guys. Either way, same result. Don't worry, yall are going to get the jack 6z vs 12z 12z the primary is more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted Thursday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:42 PM 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 6z vs 12z 12z the primary is more north. maybe another run or two with a slight nudge north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Thursday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:42 PM 3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: DCA will still report <3" regardless ... It will be 3-4 degrees milder than surrounding official stations during the heaviest snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted Thursday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:44 PM 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: It will be 3-4 degrees milder than surrounding official stations during the heaviest snow which will be reflective of the surrounding area which is heavily urbanized and low-lying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted Thursday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:45 PM 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 6z vs 12z 12z the primary is more north. But that comparison could also be the result of timing differences (storm moving faster/slower) between runs. It's all splitting hairs anyways. For most of us, things haven't really changed, though I appreciate that some (me included) are teetering on the edge of either missing out on big totals or missing out entirely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Thursday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:45 PM Euro drives the dry slot pretty far north this run. Some backside love out this way though. Beautiful run for the Northern Shen Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Thursday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:46 PM 9 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: DCA will still report <3" regardless ... Not to shill for DCA - but they were on point during the storms last year. No suspicious activity. They even recorded .1" this year during that morning sleet a week or two ago. Think they've found a generous slant-sticker to conduct the measurements. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted Thursday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:47 PM Just now, mattie g said: I'd like the wishcasters to stop doing their wishy-casting thing. Typically it will shift slightly north but mostly noise at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Thursday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:48 PM 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I would be upset at the return of the infamous DC claw but hard to complain about only getting 8-10 instead of 10+ That's when you know the claw has really pinched our weenie pysches--that we see a map like this and have a momentary subconscious groan out of habit, lolol But agreed--this claw is (hopefully) more friendly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Thursday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:48 PM Euro is on board with a period of back end stuff, only about 0.1 but it should be fluffy. Maybe an inch or two to freshen everything up around dusk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted Thursday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:48 PM Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Not to shill for DCA - but they were on point during the storms last year. No suspicious activity. They even recorded .1" this year during that morning sleet. Think they've found a generous slant-sticker to conduct the measurements. a lot of people make a big deal about this here and in NYC, forgetting that these are the stations of record for the cities in which they reside (technically DCA is barely in Arlington County, but Arlington and DC are more or less dense urban areas). They are not the stations of record for someone's house at 500' of elevation 30 miles from the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Thursday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:50 PM 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: But that comparison could also be the result of timing differences (storm moving faster/slower) between runs. It's all splitting hairs anyways. For most of us, things haven't really changed, though I appreciate that some (me included) are teetering on the edge of either missing out on big totals or missing out entirely. No the low never got that far north on the 6z and you can see the precip also shifted north and the snow max did as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Thursday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:50 PM An inch of total QPF out this way on the Euro. Would be well over a foot if its accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted Thursday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:50 PM 6 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: DCA will still report <3" regardless ... I know that this is a joke, but they've been doing way better since getting embarrassed back a decade ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted Thursday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:50 PM Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Euro is on board with a period of back end stuff, only about 0.1 but it should be fluffy. Maybe an inch or two to freshen everything up around dusk. I'll always remember zwyts/Deck Pic saying years ago something about how we often end well around here as the upper energy swings through. I even notice similar during events in the warmer months. Those are always nice snows because they do like you say - they freshen things up with a small layer of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted Thursday at 05:53 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:53 PM My first time posting over here (hang out at the Great Lakes forum!) Was going to head to DC for Carter's memorial services with a flight out of Chicago on Monday morning. Looking like that may not be the best idea? This storm being tracked here is goign to hit the middle part of IL (I'm in Chicago) and looking like 3ish for DC seems like a safe bet right? Debating if I should cancel my trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Thursday at 05:55 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:55 PM 1 minute ago, michaelmantis said: My first time posting over here (hang out at the Great Lakes forum!) Was going to head to DC for Carter's memorial services with a flight out of Chicago on Monday morning. Looking like that may not be the best idea? This storm being tracked here is goign to hit the middle part of IL (I'm in Chicago) and looking like 3ish for DC seems like a safe bet right? Debating if I should cancel my trip. Your flight will probably be fine. But good luck getting around on the roads. We dont do snow driving very well here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Thursday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:56 PM 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: An inch of total QPF out this way on the Euro. Would be well over a foot if its accurate. That does bring some pause because I feel the Euro has been very wet ahead of systems recently, only to back off as we get closer. We want to see a steady or increase in the amounts as we approach.. for now, at least we are seeing an increase! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Thursday at 06:00 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:00 PM 4 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: My first time posting over here (hang out at the Great Lakes forum!) Was going to head to DC for Carter's memorial services with a flight out of Chicago on Monday morning. Looking like that may not be the best idea? This storm being tracked here is goign to hit the middle part of IL (I'm in Chicago) and looking like 3ish for DC seems like a safe bet right? Debating if I should cancel my trip. DCA was really unimpressive during last years' 3-5"ers. I think folks will have trouble coming in and out of DCA on Monday and Tuesday... with the way plane delays and cancellations roll over it could be tricky. I got my family to push our flight out of DCA from Tuesday morning -> Sunday morning instead, as much as it pained the weenie in me. The good news about DCA (or IAD, if that's your destination) is that the metro hooks right up to the airports. It operates close to normal in up to 4-6", and they'll be clearing it throughout the day. If you land, you can get to downtown proper and hopefully close to your hotel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Thursday at 06:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:02 PM 4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: That does bring some pause because I feel the Euro has been very wet ahead of systems recently, only to back off as we get closer. We want to see a steady or increase in the amounts as we approach.. for now, at least we are seeing an increase! A couple smart degreed mets I'm in chats with are throwing out a yellow flag that the AI modeling is lighter on precip than the globals... their take on the AI is that they are essentially really fancy analogs, since they work by referencing the dataset of previous storms and then guessing the outcome from there. Food for thought, I guess, don't mean to deb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Thursday at 06:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:02 PM 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: DCA was really unimpressive during last years' 3-5"ers. I think folks will have trouble coming in and out of DCA on Monday and Tuesday... with the way plane delays and cancellations roll over it could be tricky. I got my family to push our flight out of DCA from Tuesday morning -> Sunday morning instead, as much as it pained the weenie in me. The good news about DCA (or IAD, if that's your destination) is that the metro hooks right up to the airports. It operates close to normal in up to 4-6", and they'll be clearing it throughout the day. If you land, you can get to downtown proper and hopefully close to your hotel. The metro should be a lifesaver for anyone who needs to be out and about Monday. Might be fun to head into DC on the silver line and take some pictures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted Thursday at 06:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:02 PM yeah definitely take the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Thursday at 06:03 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:03 PM The importance of the 50/50 for our temps cant be overstated. Storm is driving into cold NW winds. And the CAD holds on throughout the entire event. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted Thursday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:04 PM 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: You and I know that likely won’t happen, but I like where we are for this event. There’s growing consensus on some really solid 85H FGEN across our hood. Plus we are further east than the fall line so MIGHT get a little help on the transfer fun as noted by some of the globals. I’m not expecting a jackpot by any means, but it’s a good situation for us! Scott -- It seems our last 3 events (both last year, and the one in 2022) were these similar W-E cutters with strong frontogenetic support. Areas along and south of the beltway seemed to do very well, especially South Anne Arundel into Calvert County and I believe (for the '22 event) even Fredericksburg. Last year we did quite well in Crofton -Bowie -- 4.1" for the first event, and another 4-5" with the second. All in one week. Our one week of winter, lol. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted Thursday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:08 PM 4 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: yeah definitely take the metro If I recall from the 2016 storm, metro has an amount of snow where they run only the underground portions of rail? Don't know we'll get to that number here but I do recall that being a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Thursday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:09 PM Just now, biodhokie said: If I recall from the 2016 storm, metro has an amount of snow where they run only the underground portions of rail? Don't know we'll get to that number here but I do recall that being a thing. It's either 6 or 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Thursday at 06:11 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:11 PM 5 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Scott -- It seems our last 3 events (both last year, and the one in 2022) were these similar W-E cutters with strong frontogenetic support. Areas along and south of the beltway seemed to do very well, especially South Anne Arundel into Calvert County and I believe (for the '22 event) even Fredericksburg. Last year we did quite well in Crofton -Bowie -- 4.1" for the first event, and another 4-5" with the second. All in one week. Our one week of winter, lol. Seems like another example incoming. I would be pretty excited if I was along and north of I-66 for this one. Going to be a long weekend leading in. Start my last stretch of night shifts this evening, the final of the back-to-back-to-back. Let’s reel this sucker in! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted Thursday at 06:13 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:13 PM 23 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: a lot of people make a big deal about this here and in NYC, forgetting that these are the stations of record for the cities in which they reside (technically DCA is barely in Arlington County, but Arlington and DC are more or less dense urban areas). They are not the stations of record for someone's house at 500' of elevation 30 miles from the city. Eh. Even in like Cathedral Heights or Rock Creek Park you’d see the potential for more than DCA…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Thursday at 06:13 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:13 PM 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: A couple smart degreed mets I'm in chats with are throwing out a yellow flag that the AI modeling is lighter on precip than the globals... their take on the AI is that they are essentially really fancy analogs, since they work by referencing the dataset of previous storms and then guessing the outcome from there. Food for thought, I guess, don't mean to deb. Meh. There's always a reason for any area of the MA to fail if you're looking for one. I don't think an unproven, experimental model would be my choice imho. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonTownT Posted Thursday at 06:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:14 PM 18 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: My first time posting over here (hang out at the Great Lakes forum!) Was going to head to DC for Carter's memorial services with a flight out of Chicago on Monday morning. Looking like that may not be the best idea? This storm being tracked here is goign to hit the middle part of IL (I'm in Chicago) and looking like 3ish for DC seems like a safe bet right? Debating if I should cancel my trip. Probably belongs in banter but didn't think about this. Carter is bringing the snow for his last visit to remind us of what DC was like in early January back in the 70s. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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