mitchnick Posted Saturday at 01:24 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:24 PM 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Why is CWG posting about a warm Caribbean this morning? Because Ben Noll is there. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted Saturday at 01:25 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:25 PM 3 hours ago, Ji said: Poor nyc weenies Hey, I might snag a couple inches on the northern fringe - no complaints! Happy you guys are going to get blasted, this is a nice storm. Enjoy! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyHolt Posted Saturday at 01:36 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:36 PM 34 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Can't say enough how great it is have legit cold settle in 48 hours before knowing every flake counts. Yep plus its nice with yesterdays bonus squalls to have pre-treatment not be salt and brine this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 01:37 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:37 PM The storm track is really dependent on the degree of confluence up north from pieces of vorticity rotating southeastward into the '50-50' vortex. There is no HP up top to speak of. The key difference imo remains the piece of energy(vorticity lobe) in SE Canada, west of Maine. On the GFS it stretches into a vorticity ribbon as it flows into the gyre, so there isn't as much dig southward as other guidance. The Euro, CMC, and Ukie keep that vort lobe more intact/further south, increasing confluence and acting to suppress the storm track a bit more. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Saturday at 01:44 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:44 PM 24 minutes ago, H2O said: Question. I know what happens just a little bit upstairs makes all the difference with sleet vs snow, but are we looking at a little bit different creature with this storm than most? What I mean is we have a really fresh dump of cold air where other storms are eroding or it’s a race for a backdoor front to come in before precip falls. How much benefit is a cold column all the way down prior to stem the mid level warming due to the WAA ? I’m generally curious what is causing the thermals to come up as much as modeled when it will be a colder storm than most times As cold as the antecedent airmass is, there’s no man high up over New England or Ontario to push back against the WAA. And WAA usually over performs a bit too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted Saturday at 01:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:45 PM Because we are all sickos here, snow starts at midnight Monday on the 12z HRRR. Gotta say, I'm a bit skeptical of the 30"+ projections in northeast KS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 01:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:45 PM 13 3 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted Saturday at 01:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:48 PM 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Because we are all sickos here, snow starts at midnight Monday on the 12z HRRR. Gotta say, I'm a bit skeptical of the 30"+ projections in northeast KS. Interesting - checked out the NWS projections in KS - see a blob of 12-18". Drove through Kansas in 1972 after a big dump of snow and then ice. Nothing to stop the wind out there. Roads were a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted Saturday at 01:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:50 PM 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: HRRR is the furthest north with the surface low, taking it through northern KY. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 01:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:51 PM 37 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Definitely. I have a snow on the ground fetish that need to be tickled. Me too. Also snow on snow. I will be hiking on Monday if this forecast holds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Saturday at 01:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:51 PM 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: EPS trend It appears more like the amounts expanded north, not so much a "shift" per se. Which is also good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Saturday at 01:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:54 PM The next time the extended hrrr nails synoptic snow forecasts will be the first! 3 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Saturday at 01:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:58 PM 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Me too. Also snow on snow. I will be hiking on Monday if this forecast holds. Absolutely, I’m a snow pack guy as well. This week will be ideal with the low sun angle and temps in the 20s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted Saturday at 01:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:58 PM Well the NAM is running......its finally getting into range where its somewhat useful.....remember the NAM always overdoes QPF by at least 25% so dont get too excited when you see the totals it spits out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King George Dee Posted Saturday at 01:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:58 PM Your theory is holding water so far, with DC near jackpot zone and 48 hours to go. Creep North my friend. Don’t be greedy . King George and Fredericksburg want snow too!. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 01:59 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:59 PM Just now, Shad said: Well the NAM is running......its finally getting into range where its somewhat useful.....remember the NAM always overdoes QPF by at least 25% so dont get too excited when you see the totals it spits out! I know it's a bias, but I don't think we can necessarily just cut qpf because of it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted Saturday at 02:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:00 PM 1 minute ago, King George Dee said: Don’t be greedy . King George and Fredericksburg want snow too! . I used to live at the back of Tyringham Drive off Millbank road in KG. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Saturday at 02:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:02 PM 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I still think nrn MD is the jack zone for now although I realize some of the guidance is south. Just going by how these trend and mid level features. We’ll see what 12z does. Either way a solid hit in the DC-BWI metro for sure. There will be a narrow area of 12+ I think. Sweet, thanks again for your input! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 02:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:02 PM Really nice look at 500 on the nam precip is heavier out west already because of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 02:03 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:03 PM 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: Really nice look at 500 on the nam precip is heavier out west already because of it At which hour on the 12z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Saturday at 02:06 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:06 PM Through 30, heights a touch lower out front but it’s mostly noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 02:10 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:10 PM 6 minutes ago, yoda said: At which hour on the 12z NAM? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Saturday at 02:11 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:11 PM Snowing in central va at 36, now on doorstep @40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted Saturday at 02:12 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:12 PM 1 hour ago, WVclimo said: DC with greater than a 50% chance of 8”+ Wow, DC the favored low-land contender - I'm not sure I've seen that before. Is this a bias-adjusted best estimate of the chance or the percent of ensemble members giving 8 or more inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Saturday at 02:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:15 PM Moderat snow in Nova@42, and western md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Saturday at 02:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:15 PM Where is stormtracker and why is he not tracking storms 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 02:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:15 PM Snowing DC metro at 05z Mon on 12z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 02:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:17 PM Just now, Ji said: Where is stormtracker and why is he not tracking storms Couple of options, 1 being he doesn’t care about the Nam much. 2: dc is a snow town again, so he doesn’t need to worry about models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 02:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:17 PM Nam looking good again. Good N/S interaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 02:20 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:20 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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