HighStakes Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Can't say enough how great it is have legit cold settle in 48 hours before knowing every flake counts. 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: For sure this is probably the most forum-wide (likely) warning level event since…2016?? Farthest south LWX counties and areas around RIC would be ones I personally am not sure about warning level snow, but probably warning level wintry conditions with snow+ice. Yep. I think EZF definitely flips, DC SE pings a bit, but north of 50 should stay all snow, with the usual max lining up along and just south of i-70, and maybe even a secondary max little north of that due to higher ratios. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Ignoring the numbers and only looking at the max stripe - I would tick that a bit north maybe by about 20 miles but all should do well. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Having the 3k being just cold enough upstairs now for mostly snow is good to have for us close in to the immediate burbs. 5”+ looks like a good bet for most the forum. glad we won’t be sweating 42/31 as precip arrives for once. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 43 minutes ago, yoda said: This map makes no sense. Their color use doesn't even match their own scale and the numbers they've assigned. Laplata vs annapolis? Be better, NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, IronTy said: This map makes no sense. Their color use doesn't even match their own scale and the numbers they've assigned. Laplata vs annapolis? Be better, NWS. 3-8” lol woof 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Nice thing about this for you guys is that the snow will stay. Good timing for this. Big win. 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 DC with greater than a 50% chance of 8”+ 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Can't say enough how great it is have legit cold settle in 48 hours before knowing every flake counts. Amen to this. No looking out to wet pavement and dripping trees. And as @CoastalWx said, our best chance at having snowpack in a loooong while. 11 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yep. I think EZF definitely flips, DC SE pings a bit, but north of 50 should stay all snow, with the usual max lining up along and just south of i-70, and maybe even a secondary max little north of that due to higher ratios. Just south of 70 works for me 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice thing about this for you guys is that the snow will stay. Good timing for this. Big win. Definitely. I have a snow on the ground fetish that need to be tickled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, IronTy said: This map makes no sense. Their color use doesn't even match their own scale and the numbers they've assigned. Laplata vs annapolis? Be better, NWS. It changes every model run its computerized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Can't say enough how great it is have legit cold settle in 48 hours before knowing every flake counts. 100% - it is cold AF this morning with the wind too. Ground already white from yesterday. Not going to see green grass for a while now. Snow on snow coming and it’s going to stick around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, winter_warlock said: It changes every model run its computerized Then somebody needs to at least fix the colors so they actually match their predicted snow amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, IronTy said: Then somebody needs to at least fix the colors so they actually match their predicted snow amounts. I agree. That graphic is never accurate anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yep. I think EZF definitely flips, DC SE pings a bit, but north of 50 should stay all snow, with the usual max lining up along and just south of i-70, and maybe even a secondary max little north of that due to higher ratios. Question. I know what happens just a little bit upstairs makes all the difference with sleet vs snow, but are we looking at a little bit different creature with this storm than most? What I mean is we have a really fresh dump of cold air where other storms are eroding or it’s a race for a backdoor front to come in before precip falls. How much benefit is a cold column all the way down prior to stem the mid level warming due to the WAA ? I’m generally curious what is causing the thermals to come up as much as modeled when it will be a colder storm than most times 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice thing about this for you guys is that the snow will stay. Good timing for this. Big win. You guys, and your location in particular, have been royally shafted. Hopefully, we can finally get a Miller A that hits us all. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Ignoring the numbers and only looking at the max stripe - I would tick that a bit north maybe by about 20 miles but all should do well. Nice work keeping Ashburn in the swath after the 20 mile shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Why is CWG posting about a warm Caribbean this morning? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Why is CWG posting about a warm Caribbean this morning? Because Ben Noll is there. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 hours ago, Ji said: Poor nyc weenies Hey, I might snag a couple inches on the northern fringe - no complaints! Happy you guys are going to get blasted, this is a nice storm. Enjoy! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyHolt Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 34 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Can't say enough how great it is have legit cold settle in 48 hours before knowing every flake counts. Yep plus its nice with yesterdays bonus squalls to have pre-treatment not be salt and brine this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The storm track is really dependent on the degree of confluence up north from pieces of vorticity rotating southeastward into the '50-50' vortex. There is no HP up top to speak of. The key difference imo remains the piece of energy(vorticity lobe) in SE Canada, west of Maine. On the GFS it stretches into a vorticity ribbon as it flows into the gyre, so there isn't as much dig southward as other guidance. The Euro, CMC, and Ukie keep that vort lobe more intact/further south, increasing confluence and acting to suppress the storm track a bit more. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 24 minutes ago, H2O said: Question. I know what happens just a little bit upstairs makes all the difference with sleet vs snow, but are we looking at a little bit different creature with this storm than most? What I mean is we have a really fresh dump of cold air where other storms are eroding or it’s a race for a backdoor front to come in before precip falls. How much benefit is a cold column all the way down prior to stem the mid level warming due to the WAA ? I’m generally curious what is causing the thermals to come up as much as modeled when it will be a colder storm than most times As cold as the antecedent airmass is, there’s no man high up over New England or Ontario to push back against the WAA. And WAA usually over performs a bit too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Because we are all sickos here, snow starts at midnight Monday on the 12z HRRR. Gotta say, I'm a bit skeptical of the 30"+ projections in northeast KS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 3 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Because we are all sickos here, snow starts at midnight Monday on the 12z HRRR. Gotta say, I'm a bit skeptical of the 30"+ projections in northeast KS. Interesting - checked out the NWS projections in KS - see a blob of 12-18". Drove through Kansas in 1972 after a big dump of snow and then ice. Nothing to stop the wind out there. Roads were a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: HRRR is the furthest north with the surface low, taking it through northern KY. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 37 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Definitely. I have a snow on the ground fetish that need to be tickled. Me too. Also snow on snow. I will be hiking on Monday if this forecast holds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: EPS trend It appears more like the amounts expanded north, not so much a "shift" per se. Which is also good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The next time the extended hrrr nails synoptic snow forecasts will be the first! 3 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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