yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 09z MON DCA is 24 degrees and heavy snow on 06z EURO 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, yoda said: 09z MON DCA is 24 degrees and heavy snow on 06z EURO DC is gonna get smacked. In a really good spot for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Why not compare it to the previous run? These maps have been posted every model cycle- the difference between the current and last run is all that matters at this point. Ok....WB 6Z EURO compared to 0Z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I personally love the euro/ol Uncle Ukie lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said: Local stations predictions this AM in my area. Calling for quite a bit more than the NWS. As well as about a 10th to a quarter inch of ice. I’m surprised.. that’s kind of a ballsy call by them. I feel like they’re usually a little more reserved. I’m right on that line of 3-6. I’ll believe that when I see it. You think the backside of that vort gets us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Ok.... Definitely got wetter and brought the big time qpf more north. Tightening up the gradient which we’ve seen in a number of big ones. It and gfs aren’t far off now. Today whatever moves they make will probably be in the same direction. Our north crew would take 50 miles and the dc contingent would get smashed still. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Ok.... Beautiful - that’s about a 30 mile northward bump by the 1 inch contour and a much expanded 1.2 contour. Legit shot at 8-14 for DC if that thing makes one more bump north. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I’m surprised.. that’s kind of a ballsy call by them. I feel like they’re usually a little more reserved. I’m right on that line of 3-6. I’ll believe that when I see it. You think the backside of that vort gets us? It’s hard to tell, it looks like they damn near copy and pasted the Euro. Channel 10 is lower than them and the NWS has us around 1-2 inches with ice. Who knows. We are in a weird spot. My gut is telling me that cold air will stay a little more stout against the blue-ridge, and north of 460 will stay snow longer and over perform. Just feels like the CAD in our area is always underestimated on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Beautiful - that’s about a 30 mile northward bump by the 1 inch contour and a much expanded 1.2 contour. Legit shot at 8-14 for DC if that thing makes one more bump north. Whole precip field expanded north and south. It's great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Benjamn3 said: It’s hard to tell, it looks like they damn near copy and pasted the Euro. Channel 10 is lower than them and the NWS has us around 1-2 inches with ice. Who knows. We are in a weird spot. My gut is telling me that cold air will stay a little more stout against the blue-ridge, and north of 460 will stay snow longer and over perform. Just feels like the CAD in our area is always underestimated on the models. That was my thought as well wrt the euro Ukie blend. Can’t say I blame them. It’s like taking the -800 odds on a sports betting site. The Nam concerns me with the non existent amount of moisture down here but from what I’ve seen it’s the only one doing it. Otherwise it’s a pretty well juiced system, with qpf values around 1 inch. One thing I am pumped about is Sunday morning is damn near 19 here so anything that falls should stick nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: That was my thought as well wrt the euro Ukie blend. Can’t say I blame them. It’s like taking the -800 odds on a sports betting site. The Nam concerns me with the non existent amount of moisture down here but from what I’ve seen it’s the only one doing it. Otherwise it’s a pretty well juiced system, with qpf values around 1 inch. One thing I am pumped about is Sunday morning is damn near 19 here so anything that falls should stick nicely. I agree about the NAM. I’m tossing it out this AM. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 59 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Just woke up. Let me see if my summary is correct? - Euro didn’t budge - GFS ticked south - NAM NAMed DC north, flirt with mix line - SREF a whole new level of NAMing - Ukie even more south - LWX disregarded euro and ukie I didn't know LWX disregarded euro and ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Euro creeping north, GFS creeping south. Getting closer to a consensus. Either way DC looks like they are in a perfect spot. Its the Philadelphia and Richmond areas where its a nailbiter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 New Srefs. Rock solid again with the northern edge creeping north. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Outside the Ukie (and remember how we survived just fine forecasting without it for years?), I think guidance is all converging to about the solution that makes sense given climo and this setup. Going to be a fun one! 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, WxUSAF said: Outside the Ukie (and remember how we survived just fine forecasting without it for years?), I think guidance is all converging to about the solution that makes sense given climo and this setup. Going to be a fun one! In your opinion, what makes more sense given climo and setup: GFS or Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 EPS trend 16 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: EPS trend Your theory is holding water so far, with DC near jackpot zone and 48 hours to go. Creep North my friend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS trend Post the Dr evil again lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: In your opinion, what makes more sense given climo and setup: GFS or Euro? Snippet from WPC Heavy snow disco this morning- Over the past few days models have converged on a stronger and slightly north solution regarding the initial placement of this upper low, with still some differences regarding it's track and ability to maintain strength as it moves eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Downstream confluence is quite strong and limits to what extent the precipitation shield can lift north. The GFS/GEFS remains alone in a stronger solution which leads to more potent WAA and a farther north heavy snow axis, as well as mixing issues spanning farther north than most other guidance. The answer likely lies somewhere in between, but may be closer to the ECMWF suite given latest trends. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS trend About time it turned around meaningfully. I said the other day that the shortwave wouldn't hit the nw Pac coast until 6z Saturday and to expect a honing in at that point. No excuses from now on. Hopefully, 12z follows the 6z trend across all the models. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Euro will likely tick north a bit more over the next few model cycles, or at least expand the precip shield in that direction. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: In your opinion, what makes more sense given climo and setup: GFS or Euro? I think max snow between 495 and @mitchnickland. DC doesn’t max out because they ping for a bit Monday and because it’s DC. Just my 2C. 5 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I still think nrn MD is the jack zone for now although I realize some of the guidance is south. Just going by how these trend and mid level features. We’ll see what 12z does. Either way a solid hit in the DC-BWI metro for sure. There will be a narrow area of 12+ I think. 14 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I know everyone focuses on the Jack stripe but overall forum wise a lot of people will get a good snow out of this. Euro ticked N as expected, GFS corrected a little south and our maple leaf friends are right there with us. Hard to argue with 3 models agreeing and the JVs close too 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS trend I like that bump north!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, H2O said: I know everyone focuses on the Jack stripe but overall forum wise a lot of people will get a good snow out of this. Euro ticked N as expected, GFS corrected a little south and our maple leaf friends are right there with us. Hard to argue with 3 models agreeing and the JVs close too For sure this is probably the most forum-wide (likely) warning level event since…2016?? Farthest south LWX counties and areas around RIC would be ones I personally am not sure about warning level snow, but probably warning level wintry conditions with snow+ice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: For sure this is probably the most forum-wide (likely) warning level event since…2016?? Farthest south LWX counties and areas around RIC would be ones I personally am not sure about warning level snow, but probably warning level wintry conditions with snow+ice. Yep will be my biggest event since the blizzard of 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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