mitchnick Posted Saturday at 06:31 AM Share Posted Saturday at 06:31 AM Looking at the trend on the new Eps, assuming Euro thinking is correct, it's really hard to think I'll see more than an inch up here. Heck, even the old home north of BWI is around 4" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Saturday at 06:36 AM Share Posted Saturday at 06:36 AM 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Looking at the trend on the new Eps, assuming Euro thinking is correct, it's really hard to think I'll see more than an inch up here. Heck, even the old home north of BWI is around 4" now. I'll take the over for a trillion dollars 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Saturday at 06:37 AM Share Posted Saturday at 06:37 AM 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Oh my. take We take! In my old Dale City region. Just might have to fly in for this one, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Saturday at 06:38 AM Share Posted Saturday at 06:38 AM 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I'll take the over for a trillion dollars We’ll be in a dry slot and the N Md/PA crew will be like “omg I can’t believe I just measured 3” in the last 30 minutes, not sure how that happened” 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 06:39 AM Share Posted Saturday at 06:39 AM 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I'll take the over for a trillion dollars Ukie ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Saturday at 06:43 AM Share Posted Saturday at 06:43 AM 1 hour ago, Solution Man said: ROFLMAO!!!!!! I remember this from last year lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 06:45 AM Share Posted Saturday at 06:45 AM 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Looking at the trend on the new Eps, assuming Euro thinking is correct, it's really hard to think I'll see more than an inch up here. Heck, even the old home north of BWI is around 4" now. Mitch, I've been looking at cluster analysis since the 00z came in and the grand ensemble has you at 4.5" and the top two clusters have you at 5", and that's with a rudimentary 10:1 ratio across the board. I think you'll see 4-8" at this juncture, but we'll see how it all plays out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 06:49 AM Share Posted Saturday at 06:49 AM Just now, MillvilleWx said: Mitch, I've been looking at cluster analysis since the 00z came in and the grand ensemble has you at 4.5" and the top two clusters have you at 5", and that's with a rudimentary 10:1 ratio across the board. I think you'll see 4-8" at this juncture, but we'll see how it all plays out. Sounds like I should be prepared for a cluster f___! Lol Honestly, I just saw the new Srefs and they are just as great as the last run. I don't recall such a discrepancy between 2 schools of thought. Something has got to give, but it won't be tonight! Good night and thanks for your input on the Board. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 06:59 AM Share Posted Saturday at 06:59 AM FWIW 03z SREFs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted Saturday at 07:15 AM Share Posted Saturday at 07:15 AM FWIW KPHI first to issue WSWatches for this event. 3-6" Philly metro SE and 5-9 in southern NJ and Delmarva. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 07:27 AM Share Posted Saturday at 07:27 AM Since Delware/Delmarva is in our region... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021>025-042015- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.250106T0600Z-250107T0600Z/ New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic- Including the cities of Dover, Chestertown, Hammonton, Ocean City, Centreville, Atlantic City, Millville, Pennsville, Wilmington, Rehoboth Beach, Georgetown, Easton, Cape May Court House, and Denton 209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 9 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, and southern New Jersey. * WHEN...From late Sunday night through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday night and intensify through midday Monday. It will then gradually taper off Monday night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 07:37 AM Share Posted Saturday at 07:37 AM Can this thing be right just once please 12 2 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 07:39 AM Share Posted Saturday at 07:39 AM 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Can this thing be right just once please Is that like an ensemble member of the 03z SREFs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted Saturday at 07:41 AM Share Posted Saturday at 07:41 AM 03z SREF Plumes - snow totals - damn, so want those crazy totals to verify! DCA: BWI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted Saturday at 07:41 AM Share Posted Saturday at 07:41 AM 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Can this thing be right just once please PSU - thanks for posting that. Hope it is right. It's 10:1. If the temps stay in the 20's for much of the region, we should see more like 12:1 or more, which could up the ante further. Time for bed. Not many of us left up at this ungodly hour. Thanks for all your contributions here on the forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 07:44 AM Share Posted Saturday at 07:44 AM Watches will be posted overnight by offices in the Mid Atlantic. You'll see them in the morning when you wake 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 07:45 AM Share Posted Saturday at 07:45 AM Just now, MillvilleWx said: Watches will be posted overnight by offices in the Mid Atlantic. You'll see them in the morning when you wake KPHI already did. I assume CTP/LWX/AKQ will be up in 2 hours or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 07:47 AM Share Posted Saturday at 07:47 AM 1 minute ago, yoda said: KPHI already did. I assume CTP/LWX/AKQ will be up in 2 hours or so I was on the collaboration call and you would be correct haha 4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 07:57 AM Share Posted Saturday at 07:57 AM AKQ WSWs up... 4-7 in their northern most counties bordering the LWX CWA URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 250 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 MDZ021>025-VAZ048-064-075>078-509>512-517>522-041600- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.250105T2100Z-250107T1200Z/ Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Fluvanna-Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster- Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- 250 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland and central, east central, eastern, and north central Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Saturday at 07:59 AM Share Posted Saturday at 07:59 AM 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I was on the collaboration call and you would be correct haha That’s so freaking cool. A collaboration call with the regional weather offices. Like the Jedi council in Star Wars. You’re gonna be busy next few days. 4 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 08:03 AM Share Posted Saturday at 08:03 AM Looks like just a tad more confluence on the 06z NAM looking at hr 27 comparing it to 00z NAM 33? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 08:13 AM Share Posted Saturday at 08:13 AM 06z NAM precip shield is a bit norther (as in bigger) at 39 compared to 00z 45. See in WV/OH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Saturday at 08:16 AM Share Posted Saturday at 08:16 AM 38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Can this thing be right just once please We are gasping now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 08:20 AM Share Posted Saturday at 08:20 AM Snow moves in around 05z MON for DC metro... snowing moderately DC south at 06z MON on 06z NAM. Also mod snow for WV/MD west of HGR/NW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 08:25 AM Share Posted Saturday at 08:25 AM heavy snow at DCA at 09z MON. However, EZF is pinging 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Saturday at 08:25 AM Share Posted Saturday at 08:25 AM looking at the H5 on the NAM at H48... it is north of the 0Z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 08:27 AM Share Posted Saturday at 08:27 AM DCA barely holding on to heavy snow at 12z MON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Saturday at 08:28 AM Share Posted Saturday at 08:28 AM yeah I do not think the NAM will be making a lot of friends this run. But it is the NAM so when know what we are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 08:30 AM Share Posted Saturday at 08:30 AM Watches up from LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 08:31 AM Share Posted Saturday at 08:31 AM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 328 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 MDZ003>006-008-011-505>508-041630- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250106T0300Z-250107T0600Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- 328 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 inches or greater possible. A localized band with up to 10 inches of snow is possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northeast, and northern Maryland. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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