caviman2201 Posted Saturday at 03:28 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:28 AM I do feel like this 72-84h south shift that almost always re-corrects north in the final 24-48 has given us DC-Balt folks false hope just to be dashed away in the past... maybe, just maybe this time it can give us false concern this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 03:28 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:28 AM It really is kinda wild how the spread is this "close" in 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted Saturday at 03:29 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:29 AM Just now, jayyy said: My thoughts exactly. I think Baltimore and points west are still very much in the game for big totals. Even the northern tier is still in it for warning level snow given temps and ratios. Tomorrow will be very telling. If euro continues to tick north and gfs / NAM hold serve, it’s game on Agree I’d rather be trusting the euro, nam and gfs then the icon and rgem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted Saturday at 03:30 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:30 AM 8 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Def some drama tonight. ICON isn't really that bad, nor is it very different from 18Z for most of this forum. RGEM isn't great, but it's been bouncy for the past 24 hours and is one model run. That’s bad north of Baltimore. Full stop. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Saturday at 03:30 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:30 AM 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Saturday at 03:31 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:31 AM 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I expect it to trend north some the final 24-36 hours. So long as this is where it is now were probably fine. It’s when DC is on the northern fringe 48 hours out that we’re in big trouble. You better cross your fingers. The present trend is not your friend. 12z will give the bottom line. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 03:32 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:32 AM 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's starting to feel like Baltimore and north are starting to lose this one...(at least for a warning-level snow anyway) Because of a icon run??? Lmao 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Saturday at 03:33 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:33 AM Just now, winter_warlock said: Because of a icon run??? Lmao Nah not just that...rgem came south too. Now I'll wait for the GFS and the Euro though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted Saturday at 03:34 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:34 AM 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: That’s bad north of Baltimore. Full stop. How bad did you do in Jan 2022? I’m just over the line into PA south of Hanover and we got between 7-9” throughout the area. You all didn’t? I feel your pain though… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted Saturday at 03:34 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:34 AM Just now, Wxdavis5784 said: How bad did you do in Jan 2022? I’m just over the line into PA south of Hanover and we got between 7-9” throughout the area. You all didn’t? I feel your pain though… Less than an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Saturday at 03:35 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:35 AM Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Nah not just that...rgem came south too. Now I'll wait for the GFS and the Euro though. The driest and furthest south models still give you 4 inches. That's not a bad place to be in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted Saturday at 03:35 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:35 AM Just now, North Balti Zen said: Less than an inch. Holy shit… was the cutoff that drastic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Saturday at 03:36 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:36 AM 1 hour ago, nj2va said: DC still (barely) holding onto snow at 15z Monday. Hour 63 is our most vulnerable panel that matters. This is a "good" run for DC. Yeah. there would probably be some mixing. But looks like 4-7" to me. No solution is awful for us. They're all acceptable - speaking DC specific. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Saturday at 03:38 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:38 AM 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I expect it to trend north some the final 24-36 hours. So long as this is where it is now were probably fine. It’s when DC is on the northern fringe 48 hours out that we’re in big trouble. This storm is making us closer to the M/D line really work for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 03:38 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:38 AM 1 minute ago, stormy said: You better cross your fingers. The present trend is not your friend. 12z will give the bottom line. What trend? We don’t even have the full 0z suite yet. If the euro goes significantly south I’ll worry. And there are still 5-6 model Cycles left before we get to the range the exact location of banding will be figured out. The last snow we got Feb last winter went from a MD bullseye 48 hours out to giving Allentown PA 12” and MD 1-3”. It won’t matter if it were way down south and we needed a 150 mile shift. But a 50-75 mile shift the last 24-36 hours is absolutely nothing and happens almost every storm one way or another. We do this every time. People act all “how can the models be this all over the place when it’s only 48 or 72 hours” when this is totally normal. We haven’t progressed as far as some think. 48-72 hours is still a long time. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 03:38 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:38 AM 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Nah not just that...rgem came south too. Now I'll wait for the GFS and the Euro though. Rgem after 50 hours isn't all that accurate . We're still 3 days away. Models will meander Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 03:38 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:38 AM 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: They're all acceptable - speaking DC specific. They are acceptable for everyone in this subforum. People just freak out because they might not get the jack. I will take 3 inches that is going to be on the ground for weeks gladly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Saturday at 03:38 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:38 AM 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Less than an inch. Maybe he means for the entire month? As far as 1/3/22 I never got a flurry. I think Reisterstown got around 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Saturday at 03:39 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:39 AM i'm out to hour 12 on the GFS. Does anyone get it fast? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted Saturday at 03:39 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:39 AM 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: I'm 100% sure that the NAM is ran on a circa 2001 Nokia flip phone. A bottle of wine deep, some inspiration, and you get this: 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 03:40 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:40 AM Off we go. GFS has started. Hopefully we get some clarity one way or the other with the last two heavyweights...GFS/Euro 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Saturday at 03:40 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:40 AM Just now, Deck Pic said: i'm out to hour 12 on the GFS. Does anyone get it fast? Pivotal to 9 and WB to 6. You win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Saturday at 03:41 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:41 AM 10 minutes ago, Ji said: That looks like a map Tom Keirein would put out in 1987 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Saturday at 03:42 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:42 AM 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: They are acceptable for everyone in this subforum. People just freak out because they might not get the jack. I will take 3 inches that is going to be on the ground for weeks gladly. Exactly! They all freak out when they're not in the bullseye every run of every model. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 03:43 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:43 AM 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What trend? We don’t even have the full 0z suite yet. If the euro goes significantly south I’ll worry. And there are still 5-6 model Cycles left before we get to the range the exact location of banding will be figured out. The last snow we got Feb last winter went from a MD bullseye 48 hours out to giving Allentown PA 12” and MD 1-3”. It won’t matter if it were way down south and we needed a 150 mile shift. But a 50-75 mile shift the last 24-36 hours is absolutely nothing and happens almost every storm one way or another. We do this every time. People act all “how can the models be this all over the place when it’s only 48 or 72 hours” when this is totally normal. We haven’t progressed as far as some think. 48-72 hours is still a long time. We have 8, maybe 9, more model cycles after 0z between now and the first flakes fall. We don't need much more qpf with temps, so 6"+ is more than doable unless everything suddenly finds it's way to the terlet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Saturday at 03:43 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:43 AM 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: That looks like a map Tom Keirein would put out in 1987 Bill Kamal. Those are WTOP colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted Saturday at 03:44 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:44 AM 20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Dry AF here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Saturday at 03:44 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:44 AM does anyone have access to the Graf? Or is it for TV people only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted Saturday at 03:44 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:44 AM 5 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Maybe he means for the entire month? As far as 1/3/22 I never got a flurry. I think Reisterstown got around 2. We def got a warning level event here in winter of 2022. Im not sure if it was Jan or Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted Saturday at 03:44 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:44 AM Everyone remain calm. Here is the GFS for Monday. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts