frd Posted Saturday at 03:09 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:09 AM 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Cautiously optimistic for us lowlanders. Edgewater/Annapolis is consistently on the northern fringe of the IP line. One thing I do love seeing is consistency on the CCB pull through for here. If that materializes....we will get raked before the storm bids, "Au Revoir!" on its way out. One of the reasons we see the 2-4" uptick for Eastern AA Co. Fingers crossed! Appears my area ENE from Baltimore benefits as well from the CCB, or at least assuming it is, as it moves East across the Northern areas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Saturday at 03:09 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:09 AM Just now, TSSN+ said: Rgem is euro south, lol I hate these models looks like the ICON is going to be south as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Saturday at 03:10 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:10 AM 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM is a smidge south this run. It’s way more than a smidge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 03:10 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:10 AM Just now, frd said: Appears my area ENE from Baltimore benefits as well from the CCB, or at least assuming it is, as it moves East across the Northern areas. Yup! DE really gets the goods on any run that gets the CCB going. Nice high ratio fluff to round it all out. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Saturday at 03:13 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:13 AM 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted Saturday at 03:14 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:14 AM RGEM really hands off to the coast earlier (and further south) than previous runs. Earlier than the NAM too. Didn’t look at the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 03:15 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:15 AM Still snowing lightly at 75 on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Saturday at 03:16 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:16 AM Ick 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted Saturday at 03:16 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:16 AM 25 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I believe the GFS runs on the FV3 core and is fairly hi-res compared to what it used to be. RGEM runs at a resolution similar to the NAM with the HRDPS the Canadian version of the hi-res 2.5km, although it has some significant issues with a multitude of parameters. This is a great question for the MDL people since they have more of the background. From what I have read, the NWS chose the FV3 as the new GFS's (and GEFS) dynamical core in part because it uses less computer resources than other options. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Saturday at 03:17 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:17 AM Still having this spread 48-60hrs out is sad. No wonder Lwx has 2-7 maps 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted Saturday at 03:17 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:17 AM 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ick Yeah northern edge of the precip is a mess. Really bad run Edit: unless you live in CVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Saturday at 03:17 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:17 AM 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ick It's starting to feel like Baltimore and north are starting to lose this one...(at least for a warning-level snow anyway) 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted Saturday at 03:20 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:20 AM 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's starting to feel like Baltimore and north are starting to lose this one... Sweating over the icon? If anything the euro (which went way south) has ticked north the last 2 or 3 runs. I know the GEM being south like the euro sucks but I would be surprised if the ICON is remotely close to the final solution… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 03:20 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:20 AM 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's starting to feel like Baltimore and north are starting to lose this one... No they’re not. Relax. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 03:20 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:20 AM 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Still having this spread 48-60hrs out is sad. No wonder Lwx has 2-7 maps Not a whole lot of spread now. The Euro wins again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Saturday at 03:21 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:21 AM Def some drama tonight. ICON isn't really that bad, nor is it very different from 18Z for most of this forum. RGEM isn't great, but it's been bouncy for the past 24 hours and is one model run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Saturday at 03:21 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:21 AM 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's starting to feel like Baltimore and north are starting to lose this one... 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Saturday at 03:22 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:22 AM 7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Some pretty weak rates up north. Most of the action is with the initial thump further south near the sleet line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted Saturday at 03:23 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:23 AM The 3km NAM gives Indy 16” of Kuchera snow. The RGEM is 4”. It is 42 hours from snow onset out there. 4 5 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted Saturday at 03:23 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:23 AM Got a nip in the air and Eagle Rare 10 in my hand (but fueled by Sapwood). What’s the latest and greatest? I’m good with cliff notes. When’s the rain coming and how much for Carbondale? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Saturday at 03:23 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:23 AM 7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ick More snow falls after this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Saturday at 03:23 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:23 AM Just now, clskinsfan said: Not a whole lot of spread now. The Euro wins again. Some models have 10” as far north as almost Harrisburg pa and others have it over Richmond. Theres still plenty of spread and we don’t know if it’s going to shift even more. Seen some ens members of both euro and gfs with hardly a system once it crosses the mountains and gives very little snow to any of us. This storm is a pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 03:24 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:24 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Saturday at 03:24 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:24 AM 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: No they’re not. Relax. You mean we, right? I am in Baltimore, lol But I'm just looking at the maps...I mean 3 inches there, 4 on the euro... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Saturday at 03:24 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:24 AM Just now, nj2va said: More snow falls after this. Not really and mostly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 03:25 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:25 AM 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's starting to feel like Baltimore and north are starting to lose this one...(at least for a warning-level snow anyway) I expect it to trend north some the final 24-36 hours. So long as this is where it is now were probably fine. It’s when DC is on the northern fringe 48 hours out that we’re in big trouble. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted Saturday at 03:25 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:25 AM 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Some models have 10” as far north as almost Harrisburg pa and others have it over Richmond. Theres still plenty of spread and we don’t know if it’s going to shift even more. Seen some ens members of both euro and gfs with hardly a system once it crosses the mountains and gives very little snow to any of us. This storm is a pain. This is how we winter around here! Whoop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Saturday at 03:26 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:26 AM Just now, TSSN+ said: Some models have 10” as far north as almost Harrisburg pa and others have it over Richmond. Theres still plenty of spread and we don’t know if it’s going to shift even more. Seen some ens members of both euro and gfs with hardly a system once it crosses the mountains and gives very little snow to any of us. This storm is a pain. The spread isn’t that large really. It’s gonna snow in Maryland and Virginia. 3-6 or 4-8 probably works for most of the area except the edges. Most storms are like this with the shifting and model disagreement about placement of bands. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Saturday at 03:27 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:27 AM 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Not really and mostly south. The 6” line goes from PW County, VA in your map to between DC/Balt. See above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Saturday at 03:27 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:27 AM I expect it to trend north some the final 24-36 hours. So long as this is where it is now were probably fine. It’s when DC is on the northern fringe 48 hours out that we’re in big trouble. My thoughts exactly. I think Baltimore and points west are still very much in the game for big totals. Even the northern tier is still in it for warning level snow given temps and ratios. Tomorrow will be very telling. If euro continues to tick north and gfs / NAM hold serve, it’s game on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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