stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Off we go. GFS has started. Hopefully we get some clarity one way or the other with the last two heavyweights...GFS/Euro 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Deck Pic said: i'm out to hour 12 on the GFS. Does anyone get it fast? Pivotal to 9 and WB to 6. You win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: They are acceptable for everyone in this subforum. People just freak out because they might not get the jack. I will take 3 inches that is going to be on the ground for weeks gladly. Exactly! They all freak out when they're not in the bullseye every run of every model. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What trend? We don’t even have the full 0z suite yet. If the euro goes significantly south I’ll worry. And there are still 5-6 model Cycles left before we get to the range the exact location of banding will be figured out. The last snow we got Feb last winter went from a MD bullseye 48 hours out to giving Allentown PA 12” and MD 1-3”. It won’t matter if it were way down south and we needed a 150 mile shift. But a 50-75 mile shift the last 24-36 hours is absolutely nothing and happens almost every storm one way or another. We do this every time. People act all “how can the models be this all over the place when it’s only 48 or 72 hours” when this is totally normal. We haven’t progressed as far as some think. 48-72 hours is still a long time. We have 8, maybe 9, more model cycles after 0z between now and the first flakes fall. We don't need much more qpf with temps, so 6"+ is more than doable unless everything suddenly finds it's way to the terlet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: That looks like a map Tom Keirein would put out in 1987 Bill Kamal. Those are WTOP colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Dry AF here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 does anyone have access to the Graf? Or is it for TV people only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Maybe he means for the entire month? As far as 1/3/22 I never got a flurry. I think Reisterstown got around 2. We def got a warning level event here in winter of 2022. Im not sure if it was Jan or Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Everyone remain calm. Here is the GFS for Monday. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: Holy shit… was the cutoff that drastic? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 16 minutes ago, Ji said: I can never understand why Fox 5 love the GRAF model and having it put out snowfall to the nearest tenth of an inch. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 A lot of yall aint gonna make it in tomorrows storm mode thread 7 1 16 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: We def got a warning level event here in winter of 2022. Im not sure if it was Jan or Feb. It was a decent month and I think 1 storm was a low end warning level but we completely got shut out on the 1st storm with a sharp cut off. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: How bad did you do in Jan 2022? I’m just over the line into PA south of Hanover and we got between 7-9” throughout the area. You all didn’t? I feel your pain though… We definitely missed 1/22. I think ur thinking 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This is really a 6-12” storm. With the fluctuations in models, this range is legitimately the best bet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: A lot of yall aint gonna make it in tomorrows storm mode thread Already had my momentsry angst release--all banter for me don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Looks like a little more confluence on the gfs out front through 48 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 What trend? We don’t even have the full 0z suite yet. If the euro goes significantly south I’ll worry. And there are still 5-6 model Cycles left before we get to the range the exact location of banding will be figured out. The last snow we got Feb last winter went from a MD bullseye 48 hours out to giving Allentown PA 12” and MD 1-3”. It won’t matter if it were way down south and we needed a 150 mile shift. But a 50-75 mile shift the last 24-36 hours is absolutely nothing and happens almost every storm one way or another. We do this every time. People act all “how can the models be this all over the place when it’s only 48 or 72 hours” when this is totally normal. We haven’t progressed as far as some think. 48-72 hours is still a long time.People have apparently forgotten both “thread storms” just last January where things looked bleak and south 48+ hours out, only to come back north… along with countless other storms that have not held serve 2+ days out over the years. It happens frequently. Does it mean it’ll happen this time? Of course not. Maybe Richmond does jackpot. But we’re talking about models waffling 50-75 miles per run based on small variations in confluence, vort strength, etc. This is largely noise. If someone asked me to bet on whether a storm (especially one with a re-developing coastal) is more likely to shift north / stronger or south / weaker inside 60 hours, I’d bet on a north bump 9 out of 10 times… unless there was some crazy strong high to our north (which there isn’t) Temps will be in upper 20s to low 30s so we’re not talking about the storm being overwhelmed by confluence to our north. History teaches us a lot. This may be one of those times where models continue south, but a compromise between the nam / gfs and euro seems most likely to me. Let’s see what 00z gfs and euro have to say, but this synoptic setup with a ULL pass to our south usually means solid snow for most of the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: We definitely missed 1/22. I think ur thinking 2021. https://www.yorkdispatch.com/story/news/2022/01/07/winter-finally-comes-york-county-how-much-snow-did-you-get/9128081002/# this was what i was thinking of. It’s been several shitty years… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Sorry...running late. So, precip is wetter out west. So far, about the same as 18z on SFC maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, LP08 said: Looks like a little more confluence on the gfs out front through 48 Definitely. Not much, but all the height lines are south a touch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This forum needs intensive therapy for insecurity ... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Wxdavis5784 said: https://www.yorkdispatch.com/story/news/2022/01/07/winter-finally-comes-york-county-how-much-snow-did-you-get/9128081002/# this was what i was thinking of. It’s been several shitty years… I thought you meant 1/3/22. Nm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 So on the GFS...there is a more souther push. Somebody else confirm. I'm talking at the northern edge of the precip. slightly colder 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I see the synoptic pattern evolving with each run. Primary out west with WAA thump from 24 hours ago to now a transfer to a coastal low that takes over. NAM showing this, hence precip filling back in late Monday into Tuesday. I think this is dynamic and still evolving into something potentially significant for our area. If the upper levels can cut off and track south of us, heavier totals will be possible. 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Heavy precip at 12z...cold. Thermals are good (remember, I'm only checking SFC and 850. Somebody else can do allat other shit) 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, mitchnick said: I thought you meant 1/3/22. Nm I couldn’t remember. I just remember having one decent snow in the last 4 years but that’s a stretch … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, stormtracker said: Heavy precip at 12z...cold. Thermals are good (remember, I'm only checking SFC and 850. Somebody else can do allat other shit) like dark blue or blue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, stormtracker said: So on the GFS...there is a more souther push. Somebody else confirm. I'm talking at the northern edge of the precip. slightly colder Confirmed, h5 vort same thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 It's definitely a little cooler. Forum wide getting hit pretty good at 15z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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