WesternFringe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 14 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Beautiful 14 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: it gets dicy near the end. Need to look at soundings. I'm curious. But we get shellacked. Just a matter of when we flip. Sooo, does the 12Z GFS run give 2-3" here in NW Augusta County like WB says or 10"+ like SV says? Asking for a friend! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Actual total eta- SBY to OC an inch+ is from the tomorrow night thing Same for N MD and DE on the GFS map 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Just shed a tear. I swear if we get dooped on this I’m gunna be furious lol well i wouldn't hug the cmc snow maps if i were you. but all models give us over .5 qpf, nothing to cry about that with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Deck Pic said: move south Or better yet, expand those pretty pinks. PV version: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Could be some decent backend snows as well. This does look kind of similar to the 1/2019 setup. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Amped said: Could be some decent backend snows as well. This does look kind of similar to the 1/2019 setup. The CMC has a period of moderate to heavy snow for a few hours around 00z Tuesday. That would be really sweet. Cover everything up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Just shed a tear. I swear if we get dooped on this I’m gunna be furious lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Question for the more knowledgeable posters here: Does the Euro or the GFS do better with thermals at this range? 12Z GFS has a nasty warm nose at 700-850 mb for most of the storm here whereas the 6Z Euro shows the column staying plenty cold throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 All of the models seem pretty much in agreement now. QPF is a little different on each. But the general idea is identical. Its a 6-12 for everyone. Perfect classic snowstorm. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Hey can someone please post sleet and ZR maps for south of the snowy area please? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The GFS is very erratic with the movement of low pressure from western Tennessee/Kentucky to the east coast. This must be clarified with future runs to determine who gets what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 15 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Moisture transport is getting better and better this morning that's for sure. This is something I was noticing over the last 24 hours and 12z runs so far really demonstrate it. The slightly northward shifted solutions are also much wetter generally. This goes hand-in-hand with a stronger shortwave and/or less confluence allowing more vigorous moisture transport. So with the tracks that put RIC-Baltimore on the edge of ever flipping p-types also have greater totals. As long as it doesn't get much stronger/norther from these types of solutions, this is probably a trade most of us (north of RIC or Fredericksburg) would be willing to make since both that front end thump is more intense and there's a more coherent CCB snow shield on the back side Monday. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, StormyClearweather said: Check out those DPs There will be some decent wet bulbing once the moisture feed enters the air and starts moistening things up from the top-down. It’s one of the reasons a lot of us will start snow and stay pretty much all snow. The dividing line will likely be in VA and MAYBE portions of St Mary’s County in MD. Rest should be snow. Have to see how it trends as we move closer. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 UK is good and colder than the GFS and CMC, more Euro like with the temps. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 40 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said: Annapolis jackpot You and I know that likely won’t happen, but I like where we are for this event. There’s growing consensus on some really solid 85H FGEN across our hood. Plus we are further east than the fall line so MIGHT get a little help on the transfer fun as noted by some of the globals. I’m not expecting a jackpot by any means, but it’s a good situation for us! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Gefs members are kinda a mess. Anywhere from misses north still to weak sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Why hello there good sir 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 16 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: UK is good and colder than the GFS and CMC, more Euro like with the temps. It is also about 6 hrs slower than the 12z GFS with the onset of precipitation (3z Monday vs 21z Sunday) here, which makes a huge difference for the temps in the column. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Gefs members are kinda a mess. Anywhere from misses north still to weak sauce Also an inch of that north of Bmore is from tomorrow night. Overall it’s just a little dry. I like the orientation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Gefs members are kinda a mess. Anywhere from misses north still to weak sauce The GEFS run this morning was the only bad news I really saw - and the good news is the GEFS sucks. Folks should always prep themselves for the real chance you could see a north shift over the next 84 hours, but hard not to love where things stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The GEFS run this morning was the only bad news I really saw - and the good news is the GEFS sucks. Folks should always prep themselves for the real chance you could see a north shift over the next 84 hours, but hard not to love where things stand. What we don't need is an uh-oh moment from the Euro this afternoon...things are to shit the blinds it would be that model and in about 45mins. biggest run of the year coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: A dry slot is sort of a loose term to describe an area that is less hospitable to precipitation. Generally we get overrun snow and about when it’s ready to change we dry slot to drizzle which does not harm the accumulated snow and the transfer misses up but maybe helps northeast of Balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Doesn't seem to matter what models do for me lol. Same outcome. Getting interested in the zr. Lots of pines on the mountains and hills here. Could look pretty cool iced up after an inch of snow at best. Not that it makes any damm difference but I'm rooting for @stormtracker, @Deck Pic, and all the other folks who literally get edged every damn storm. Make sure you rub it in REAL good if it happens What got you to skedaddle us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 The European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast model has begun 1 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The GEFS run this morning was the only bad news I really saw - and the good news is the GEFS sucks. Folks should always prep themselves for the real chance you could see a north shift over the next 84 hours, but hard not to love where things stand. I wonder how big of a north shift is still on the table here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: The European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast model has begun Just be good for all our sakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Can every run of the Euro be the biggest run of the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 At 51. No notable differences vs 6z so far 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, konksw said: Can every run of the Euro be the biggest run of the Euro? yes..yes it can 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Almost carbon copy of the 6z so far 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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