MN Transplant Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The 3km NAM gives Indy 16” of Kuchera snow. The RGEM is 4”. It is 42 hours from snow onset out there. 4 5 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Got a nip in the air and Eagle Rare 10 in my hand (but fueled by Sapwood). What’s the latest and greatest? I’m good with cliff notes. When’s the rain coming and how much for Carbondale? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ick More snow falls after this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, clskinsfan said: Not a whole lot of spread now. The Euro wins again. Some models have 10” as far north as almost Harrisburg pa and others have it over Richmond. Theres still plenty of spread and we don’t know if it’s going to shift even more. Seen some ens members of both euro and gfs with hardly a system once it crosses the mountains and gives very little snow to any of us. This storm is a pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: No they’re not. Relax. You mean we, right? I am in Baltimore, lol But I'm just looking at the maps...I mean 3 inches there, 4 on the euro... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, nj2va said: More snow falls after this. Not really and mostly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's starting to feel like Baltimore and north are starting to lose this one...(at least for a warning-level snow anyway) I expect it to trend north some the final 24-36 hours. So long as this is where it is now were probably fine. It’s when DC is on the northern fringe 48 hours out that we’re in big trouble. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Some models have 10” as far north as almost Harrisburg pa and others have it over Richmond. Theres still plenty of spread and we don’t know if it’s going to shift even more. Seen some ens members of both euro and gfs with hardly a system once it crosses the mountains and gives very little snow to any of us. This storm is a pain. This is how we winter around here! Whoop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, TSSN+ said: Some models have 10” as far north as almost Harrisburg pa and others have it over Richmond. Theres still plenty of spread and we don’t know if it’s going to shift even more. Seen some ens members of both euro and gfs with hardly a system once it crosses the mountains and gives very little snow to any of us. This storm is a pain. The spread isn’t that large really. It’s gonna snow in Maryland and Virginia. 3-6 or 4-8 probably works for most of the area except the edges. Most storms are like this with the shifting and model disagreement about placement of bands. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Not really and mostly south. The 6” line goes from PW County, VA in your map to between DC/Balt. See above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I expect it to trend north some the final 24-36 hours. So long as this is where it is now were probably fine. It’s when DC is on the northern fringe 48 hours out that we’re in big trouble. My thoughts exactly. I think Baltimore and points west are still very much in the game for big totals. Even the northern tier is still in it for warning level snow given temps and ratios. Tomorrow will be very telling. If euro continues to tick north and gfs / NAM hold serve, it’s game on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I do feel like this 72-84h south shift that almost always re-corrects north in the final 24-48 has given us DC-Balt folks false hope just to be dashed away in the past... maybe, just maybe this time it can give us false concern this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 It really is kinda wild how the spread is this "close" in 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, jayyy said: My thoughts exactly. I think Baltimore and points west are still very much in the game for big totals. Even the northern tier is still in it for warning level snow given temps and ratios. Tomorrow will be very telling. If euro continues to tick north and gfs / NAM hold serve, it’s game on Agree I’d rather be trusting the euro, nam and gfs then the icon and rgem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Def some drama tonight. ICON isn't really that bad, nor is it very different from 18Z for most of this forum. RGEM isn't great, but it's been bouncy for the past 24 hours and is one model run. That’s bad north of Baltimore. Full stop. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I expect it to trend north some the final 24-36 hours. So long as this is where it is now were probably fine. It’s when DC is on the northern fringe 48 hours out that we’re in big trouble. You better cross your fingers. The present trend is not your friend. 12z will give the bottom line. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's starting to feel like Baltimore and north are starting to lose this one...(at least for a warning-level snow anyway) Because of a icon run??? Lmao 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, winter_warlock said: Because of a icon run??? Lmao Nah not just that...rgem came south too. Now I'll wait for the GFS and the Euro though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: That’s bad north of Baltimore. Full stop. How bad did you do in Jan 2022? I’m just over the line into PA south of Hanover and we got between 7-9” throughout the area. You all didn’t? I feel your pain though… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Wxdavis5784 said: How bad did you do in Jan 2022? I’m just over the line into PA south of Hanover and we got between 7-9” throughout the area. You all didn’t? I feel your pain though… Less than an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Nah not just that...rgem came south too. Now I'll wait for the GFS and the Euro though. The driest and furthest south models still give you 4 inches. That's not a bad place to be in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Less than an inch. Holy shit… was the cutoff that drastic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I expect it to trend north some the final 24-36 hours. So long as this is where it is now were probably fine. It’s when DC is on the northern fringe 48 hours out that we’re in big trouble. This storm is making us closer to the M/D line really work for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, stormy said: You better cross your fingers. The present trend is not your friend. 12z will give the bottom line. What trend? We don’t even have the full 0z suite yet. If the euro goes significantly south I’ll worry. And there are still 5-6 model Cycles left before we get to the range the exact location of banding will be figured out. The last snow we got Feb last winter went from a MD bullseye 48 hours out to giving Allentown PA 12” and MD 1-3”. It won’t matter if it were way down south and we needed a 150 mile shift. But a 50-75 mile shift the last 24-36 hours is absolutely nothing and happens almost every storm one way or another. We do this every time. People act all “how can the models be this all over the place when it’s only 48 or 72 hours” when this is totally normal. We haven’t progressed as far as some think. 48-72 hours is still a long time. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Nah not just that...rgem came south too. Now I'll wait for the GFS and the Euro though. Rgem after 50 hours isn't all that accurate . We're still 3 days away. Models will meander Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: They're all acceptable - speaking DC specific. They are acceptable for everyone in this subforum. People just freak out because they might not get the jack. I will take 3 inches that is going to be on the ground for weeks gladly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Less than an inch. Maybe he means for the entire month? As far as 1/3/22 I never got a flurry. I think Reisterstown got around 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: I'm 100% sure that the NAM is ran on a circa 2001 Nokia flip phone. A bottle of wine deep, some inspiration, and you get this: 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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