stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Just now, Terpeast said: Nice run, more than acceptable I can't be mad at it. Barely hanging on to snow for majority here. Still some sleet in there somewhere I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, stormtracker said: looks like 8-12 Kuchera? Yep, looks like it for the middle of this sub. Maybe foot plus lollies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I can't be mad at it. Barely hanging on to snow for majority here. Still some sleet in there somewhere I think With that 70kt+ 850 jet, that is a likely possibility but good thing we just get a little bit before dry slotting and then get the coastal going. At least according to the NAM, but other models are picking up on this scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 27 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Yup! This is the stage where if we see any deviations from the norm, it would be now with the introduction of the CAMs. The D3-5 period is pretty boring typically on the NBM with regards to changes, I've noticed unless there is a noticeable shift in the general synoptics. So far nothing shows that at this lead. Appreciate taking the top to pop in and give some low down on the model background part of things @high risk I try my best, but you and @dtk are more well versed than I on the inner workings of most, if not all relevant NWP. Does anyone know why ncep never developed a high res version of the GFS similar to the Rgem and high res euro (not sure of they discontinued that when the euro op went high res). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Jackpot from Eldersbutg to Baltimore. If only 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 MRB with the Jack this run. I dont know anything about the FV3. But man is it beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 No more north nudges. Please. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: With that 70kt+ 850 jet, that is a likely possibility but good thing we just get a little bit before dry slotting and then get the coastal going. At least according to the NAM, but other models are picking up on this scenario Isn’t this a fairly typical scenario around here (climo-ish) when the energy transfers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: MRB with the Jack this run. I dont know anything about the FV3. But man is it beautiful. Fv3 is like the high res GFS if I remember. Looks great too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Does anyone know why ncep never developed a high res version of the GFS similar to the Rgem and high res euro (not sure of they discontinued that when the euro op went high res). I thought the NAM was a high result ion GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The past couple years this is the point at which we'd throw in the towel. Not the case for this one ... ...yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Fv3 was about to beat us like a red headed step child 8 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 NAM is pretty sweet for those of us north. Solid .7-.8” qpf, no mix/dry slot issues. Just pure cold snow. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3k is way better out here for my area. I think its a 6-10 storm for just about all of us. Nothing to complain about. And its going to be here for a long while as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: No more north nudges. Please. Something tells me we won't have to worry about that for our yards. Seems like this is the good goal post now with the euro being the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Fv3 is like the high res GFS if I remember. Looks great too And I thought the FV3 was the new GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Does anyone know why ncep never developed a high res version of the GFS similar to the Rgem and high res euro (not sure of they discontinued that when the euro op went high res). I believe the GFS runs on the FV3 core and is fairly hi-res compared to what it used to be. RGEM runs at a resolution similar to the NAM with the HRDPS the Canadian version of the hi-res 2.5km, although it has some significant issues with a multitude of parameters. This is a great question for the MDL people since they have more of the background. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Fv3 was about to beat us like a red headed step child I noticed that too. Looks real good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Fv3 was about to beat us like a red headed step child I know it means nothing, but it makes me feel good, so I'm going to say it - FV3 nailed today's "event" for NoVa, at least. Even showed the two rounds we wound up getting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: I thought the NAM was a high result ion GFS? No the NAM was never aligned to the gfs the same way the high res euro and rgem are to their parent globals. You don’t see the rgem diverge from the gem much for example. You see the NAM off on a crazy tangent from the gfs often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I believe the GFS runs on the FV3 core and is fairly hi-res compared to what it used to be. RGEM runs at a resolution similar to the NAM with the HRDPS the Canadian version of the hi-res 2.5km, although it has some significant issues with a multitude of parameters. This is a great question for the MDL people since they have more of the background. It's really an EMC question, but you nailed it. The HiResW FV3 can in some ways be considered a hi-res GFS, but the GFS has been tuned a fair amount in recent years, with none of those upgrades making it into the HiResW FV3. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I believe the GFS runs on the FV3 core and is fairly hi-res compared to what it used to be. RGEM runs at a resolution similar to the NAM with the HRDPS the Canadian version of the hi-res 2.5km, although it has some significant issues with a multitude of parameters. This is a great question for the MDL people since they have more of the background. Pagin @das or @dtk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 FV3 at the end of the run, so take it for what it's worth, but considering the antecedent airmass and wet bulb temps, there's a good possibility many of us are snowing early Monday morning between 22-26F with DCA probably reporting 28-29. In any case, surface temps look really solid to stay at or below freezing for many in here. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, high risk said: It's really an EMC question, but you nailed it. The HiResW FV3 can in some ways be considered a hi-res GFS, but the GFS has been tuned a fair amount in recent years, with none of those upgrades making it into the HiResW FV3. Ah yes, EMC! I keep forgetting about them. They are literally two floors down, but they just go about their business and are quite reserved. Super knowledgeable people down there at NCWCP. Appreciate the response 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 47 minutes ago, IronTy said: Damn, guess KC is gonna be jack for this storm. We had our chance, I guess. Maybe next time. ETA - he's probably got some insider contacts at both the euro and GFS. Already knows what's gonna happen for the 00Z runs. Keep an eye on his whereabouts for the tell. Natural gas futures traders hate this one trick... Cantore is typically the kiss of death… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, mappy said: NAM is pretty sweet for those of us north. Solid .7-.8” qpf, no mix/dry slot issues. Just pure cold snow. Down here in AA County we like to ride the line. Big QPF and big snowflakes. If we don't ping, we bling. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: Down here in AA County we like to ride the line. Big QPF and big snowflakes. If we don't ping, we bling. Go big or go home. Us ‘Napolis folk know about riding the line. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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