clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 01:50 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:50 AM HRRR was lining us up for a pummeling. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 01:51 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:51 AM NAM running 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beagles20 Posted Saturday at 01:53 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:53 AM 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Trash. Like the NAM on steroids. Not sure it’s ever been right. Always has insanely high qpf. Here's to an 80 mile shift north over the next couple of days to be in the jackpot or for the storm to stay where its at, whichever comes first! Enjoy this one you southerners in the Mid Atlantic! Hopefully, we can squeeze out a couple of inches and be happy here in PA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 01:55 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 01:55 AM So far...flow out front of our S/w is a bit flatter. Nothing dramatic. Like a half of a half of a toe hair 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Saturday at 01:56 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:56 AM Well, storm coming, Weather Channel sent someone to DC! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Saturday at 01:57 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:57 AM 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Well, storm coming, Weather Channel sent someone to DC! Oh no that’s not good 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppyX2 Posted Saturday at 01:58 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:58 AM They “Weather Channel” don’t know any more than you folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 01:59 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 01:59 AM Just now, TSSN+ said: Oh no that’s not good It's back to slightly amp'd....never judge early on. It's basically noise..nothing with any huge implications so far IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 01:59 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:59 AM 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: HRRR was lining us up for a pummeling. Looks much like the Gfs, Nam, and Srefs for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 01:59 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 01:59 AM 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Oh no that’s not good It really is basically a carbon copy so far at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 02:01 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:01 AM Not sure if the precip shield is a touch north out west. Or if it is just juicier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Saturday at 02:01 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:01 AM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It really is basically a carbon copy so far at H5 I was replying to the weather channel coming to dc not you lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 02:02 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:02 AM Just now, TSSN+ said: I was replying to the weather channel coming to dc not you lol Shit. I might need to drink another gallon of water. Anyway...nothing of note to report so far. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Saturday at 02:03 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:03 AM 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: I was replying to the weather channel coming to dc not you lol They are in KC, Cin. and DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Saturday at 02:05 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:05 AM 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Well, storm coming, Weather Channel sent someone to DC! Has Jim Cantore been sighted? That's how we'll know it's gonna be historic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 02:06 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:06 AM Nothing notable...s/w just a teenie tiny bit flatter. Confluence just slightly more SW. Still noise range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Saturday at 02:06 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:06 AM 1 minute ago, IronTy said: Has Jim Cantore been sighted? That's how we'll know it's gonna be historic. KC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 02:06 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:06 AM Just now, IronTy said: Has Jim Cantore been sighted? That's how we'll know it's gonna be historic. He would have been freaking out about the thunder snow today. Anyhow. NAM is definitely juiced up more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 02:09 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:09 AM Boring so far. Smoothed it's just 18z on replay so far. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Saturday at 02:09 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:09 AM 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: He would have been freaking out about the thunder snow today. Anyhow. NAM is definitely juiced up more. I still remember when I was a kid and Jim Cantore was live during a storm in Boston. He got some thundersnow live on the air and he went crazy. He started chewing screen like a C-list actor. Thought he turned into Steve Irwin or something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 02:10 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:10 AM Maybe a touch slower? But really not much has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Saturday at 02:10 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:10 AM 58 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Just in case anyone was wondering, the purpose for the NBM. As we know, most model suites have their ensembles at lower resolution. NBM was conceived to take operational models for the most part and use them as an ensemble suite. It makes sense since the operationals have the highest resolution. This was told to me on Phillywx by Rainshadow, who retired from NWS Philly a few years ago. I'll spare everyone the NBM history, but right now, the winter suite at this range actually uses all ECMWF and GEFS ensemble members, along with 10 SREF ARW members and the GFS. We're now coming into the range where it will start using the NAM Nest and HiRes Window FV3. 6 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Saturday at 02:10 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:10 AM 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: KC... Damn, guess KC is gonna be jack for this storm. We had our chance, I guess. Maybe next time. ETA - he's probably got some insider contacts at both the euro and GFS. Already knows what's gonna happen for the 00Z runs. Keep an eye on his whereabouts for the tell. Natural gas futures traders hate this one trick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 02:11 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:11 AM I see faster flow at h5 on the western flank of the big low to our NE. Might play a role later. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Saturday at 02:14 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:14 AM The Nam is soooo slow to come out. Come on already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 02:15 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:15 AM Just now, high risk said: I'll spare everyone the NBM history, but right now, the winter suite at this range uses all ECMWF and GEFS ensemble members, along with 10 SREF ARW members and the GFS. We're now coming into the range where it will start using the NAM Nest and HiRes Window FV3. Yup! This is the stage where if we see any deviations from the norm, it would be now with the introduction of the CAMs. The D3-5 period is pretty boring typically on the NBM with regards to changes, I've noticed unless there is a noticeable shift in the general synoptics. So far nothing shows that at this lead. Appreciate taking the top to pop in and give some low down on the model background part of things @high risk I try my best, but you and @dtk are more well versed than I on the inner workings of most, if not all relevant NWP. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 02:16 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:16 AM 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I see faster flow at h5 on the western flank of the big low to our NE. Might play a role later. I noticed it too, just not trying to make people feel one way or the other since is not anything huge at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 02:17 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 02:17 AM I'm 100% sure that the NAM is ran on a circa 2001 Nokia flip phone. 2 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 02:17 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:17 AM Storm looks healthy so far via the 00z NAM. Man, NE Kansas is going to get the business with this storm. Sheesh. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 02:19 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:19 AM Maybe nothing, but s/w low is less deep than 18z (h5 vorticity) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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