stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Boring so far. Smoothed it's just 18z on replay so far. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: He would have been freaking out about the thunder snow today. Anyhow. NAM is definitely juiced up more. I still remember when I was a kid and Jim Cantore was live during a storm in Boston. He got some thundersnow live on the air and he went crazy. He started chewing screen like a C-list actor. Thought he turned into Steve Irwin or something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Maybe a touch slower? But really not much has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 58 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Just in case anyone was wondering, the purpose for the NBM. As we know, most model suites have their ensembles at lower resolution. NBM was conceived to take operational models for the most part and use them as an ensemble suite. It makes sense since the operationals have the highest resolution. This was told to me on Phillywx by Rainshadow, who retired from NWS Philly a few years ago. I'll spare everyone the NBM history, but right now, the winter suite at this range actually uses all ECMWF and GEFS ensemble members, along with 10 SREF ARW members and the GFS. We're now coming into the range where it will start using the NAM Nest and HiRes Window FV3. 6 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: KC... Damn, guess KC is gonna be jack for this storm. We had our chance, I guess. Maybe next time. ETA - he's probably got some insider contacts at both the euro and GFS. Already knows what's gonna happen for the 00Z runs. Keep an eye on his whereabouts for the tell. Natural gas futures traders hate this one trick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I see faster flow at h5 on the western flank of the big low to our NE. Might play a role later. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The Nam is soooo slow to come out. Come on already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, high risk said: I'll spare everyone the NBM history, but right now, the winter suite at this range uses all ECMWF and GEFS ensemble members, along with 10 SREF ARW members and the GFS. We're now coming into the range where it will start using the NAM Nest and HiRes Window FV3. Yup! This is the stage where if we see any deviations from the norm, it would be now with the introduction of the CAMs. The D3-5 period is pretty boring typically on the NBM with regards to changes, I've noticed unless there is a noticeable shift in the general synoptics. So far nothing shows that at this lead. Appreciate taking the top to pop in and give some low down on the model background part of things @high risk I try my best, but you and @dtk are more well versed than I on the inner workings of most, if not all relevant NWP. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I see faster flow at h5 on the western flank of the big low to our NE. Might play a role later. I noticed it too, just not trying to make people feel one way or the other since is not anything huge at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 I'm 100% sure that the NAM is ran on a circa 2001 Nokia flip phone. 2 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Storm looks healthy so far via the 00z NAM. Man, NE Kansas is going to get the business with this storm. Sheesh. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Maybe nothing, but s/w low is less deep than 18z (h5 vorticity) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Thought they were retiring the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Well, definitely wetter way out west over S IL and S IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Snow entering CVA portions of the subforum 7p Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Maybe nothing, but s/w low is less deep than 18z (h5 vorticity) Yup, when we’re analyzing minute changes from the 18z to 0z NAM, there must be a storm coming. Love it. Seems all similar to me from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well, definitely wetter way out west over S IL and S IN 70kt 85H LLJ aimed right at them doing the trick. System is still very dynamic in its structure. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 New LWX map. Seems low imo. 2-7” is a huge range for some lol 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Yeah, wetter out there. Not sure it translates to us. Anyway, money panels for us coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Thought they were retiring the NAM? MAYBE in 2026. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, mappy said: New LWX map. Seems low imo. 2-7” is a huge range for some lol Under no circumstances would I have put out a map that looks like that with those ranges. I've made these decisions before for these types of maps. This is honestly a no-no. Ugh 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, mappy said: New LWX map. Seems low imo. 2-7” is a huge range for some lol Still unknowns. They can always go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Slow af. 1am Monday, still nothing up here...DC north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Under no circumstances would I have put out a map that looks like that with those ranges. I've made these decisions before for these types of maps. This is honestly a no-no. Ugh Yeah, it feels like the narrower the ranges are, the more certain they are. But 2-7” is really wide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6Z snow begins out here in the Shenandoah Valley. Perfect timing really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 New LWX map. Seems low imo. 2-7” is a huge range for some lol This map bothers me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, stormtracker said: Slow af. 1am Monday, still nothing up here...DC north Taking 1hrs per 6hr panel. Run will finish by tomorrow. If euro started at the same time as the Nam it would be out to 360 already lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Terpeast said: Yeah, it feels like the narrower the ranges are, the more certain they are. But 2-7” is really wide. That wide range is like putting out a map of shoulder shrug emojis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 While we wait for the next panel, it's definitely more juiced up out west...S IN and S OH. Hope we can get that to translate to us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Pivotal has snow across NVA at 1a, literally right up to the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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