RVAman Posted Saturday at 12:30 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:30 AM 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I still cannot believe south of 64 still has an outside chance for a significant snowfall. I feel like the gfs actually took a step toward the euro and Ukie. I’m fully expecting ice but would be a nice surprise if we could thump out of the gate before thermals get warm upstairs. I hope everyone from Salem to Richmond to DC & surrounding areas cash out. This is what we all need. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 12:31 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:31 AM 10 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: Jan 25th 1987 is calling us Great storm! Easily top 10 for my time here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Saturday at 12:34 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:34 AM 12 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: Jan 25th 1987 is calling us I remember that, I was at 3557 Longview Ave in Woodbridge VA and we got 10 inches, after getting walloped by 14 on the 22nd. I was digging snow like a maniac. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 12:34 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:34 AM 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Great storm! Easily top 10 for my time here. I'd take that storm in a hot minute 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted Saturday at 12:47 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:47 AM 57 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Would love to look back on Tuesday and see which one had it right. So easy to say that - but - on Tuesday this show will be over and all eyes on next weekend's potential and we do it all over again! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted Saturday at 12:49 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:49 AM 17 minutes ago, RVAman said: I hope everyone from Salem to Richmond to DC & surrounding areas cash out. This is what we all need. I’m hoping the same. It must be a tough forecast for our local Mets. I’m thinking we will do fairly well I have a good feeling this will overperform for us. The CAD west of the blueridge is always underestimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Saturday at 12:50 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:50 AM How reliable is the SREF ARW? WB 21Z 1 4 7 1 1 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 12:50 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:50 AM For those that still don't like the Srefs, I have even more bad news for you. And there's maybe .1" more snow in places on the latest run after the map I used here, but I had to use the 78hrs to compare with the 84hrs on the last run. The storm is a few hours slower, which alows it to expand the precip shield i.e. wetter in some locations. A few places may have been cut back, but those localized reductions will just have to be taken for the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 12:52 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:52 AM Just now, Weather Will said: How reliable is the SREF ARW? WB 21Z That's just one of the Sref members used in the Srefs I posted. Obviously, the snowiest one! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 12:55 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:55 AM It's the trend that's most important with the Srefs at this point, and it is positive. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted Saturday at 12:59 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:59 AM How unusual is the track of this system with this nearly uniform west-to-east fetch of snow? Was the early Dec storm of 2013 similar to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Saturday at 01:00 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:00 AM How reliable is the SREF ARW? WB 21ZI know it’s the SREF blend but this is what I have had in mind for days now. Makes the most sense to me based on setup and climo. We shall see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Saturday at 01:02 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:02 AM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: It's the trend that's most important with the Srefs at this point, and it is positive. I will hug anything that shows a north trend at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Saturday at 01:03 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:03 AM WB 21Z NBM, I know it is a blend of other previous runs.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Saturday at 01:05 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:05 AM 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 21Z NBM, I know it is a blend of other previous runs.... At least something other than the GFS is north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 01:09 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:09 AM 4 minutes ago, bncho said: At least something other than the GFS is north. Like looking for someone to agree with you even though your closest and most reliable friends give you different advice. : D 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Saturday at 01:11 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:11 AM Just watched JB. He favors a 50/50 blend of the GFS and Euro, is most interested in the height rises to the east of the euro in upcoming runs. Hope he's right as I think that would make the most of us happy. And puts me at ground zero, of course. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Saturday at 01:11 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:11 AM 8 minutes ago, bncho said: At least something other than the GFS is north. That’s cause it is a blend of the models. So the gfs and Nam are in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 01:14 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:14 AM 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 21Z NBM, I know it is a blend of other previous runs.... Just in case anyone was wondering, the purpose for the NBM. As we know, most model suites have their ensembles at lower resolution. NBM was conceived to take operational models for the most part and use them as an ensemble suite. It makes sense since the operationals have the highest resolution. This was told to me on Phillywx by Rainshadow, who retired from NWS Philly a few years ago. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted Saturday at 01:20 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:20 AM 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: After it's 1 and only coup on 1/30/10, they retired it in a private ceremony. May God rest its soul. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 01:20 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:20 AM 11 14 1 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Saturday at 01:23 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:23 AM Come to papa haha. Euro doing its typical waffle 48 hours out before trending back to its 3-4 day depiction? We shall see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Saturday at 01:25 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:25 AM Just in case anyone was wondering, the purpose for the NBM. As we know, most model suites have their ensembles at lower resolution. NBM was conceived to take operational models for the most part and use them as an ensemble suite. It makes sense since the operationals have the highest resolution. This was told to me on Phillywx by Rainshadow, who retired from NWS Philly a few years ago.I know many tend to hug the snowiest for their backyard, but a blend of all of the major OPs makes total sense for actual forecasting purposes. If GFS / NAM also go south tonight and euro holds serve, that’s when I’ll be a smidge worried for Baltimore & north. And by “worried” I mean 4-6” instead of 8-12” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted Saturday at 01:26 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:26 AM Sure why not….FV3 with a more expansive northern precip than NAM at 00z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Saturday at 01:28 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:28 AM 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Isn’t it usually said the euro doesn’t usually make big jumps just small gradual ones? but if it keep doing that for the next 4 runs dc would be in the heaviest and we’d be right in the north edge of the bigs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 01:28 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:28 AM 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Just in case anyone was wondering, the purpose for the NBM. As we know, most model suites have their ensembles at lower resolution. NBM was conceived to take operational models for the most part and use them as an ensemble suite. It makes sense since the operationals have the highest resolution. This was told to me on Phillywx by Rainshadow, who retired from NWS Philly a few years ago. The NBM is a very useful tool for forecasting when you know how to interpret it and understand its biases. I've been keeping an eye on it and it's been pretty great with handling the swings and limiting the crazy max/min variance from run to run the past few days. It'll be interesting once the CAMs start getting incorporated. That will be a useful way to seeing some of the proposed banding being forecast. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 01:38 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:38 AM 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hmm well the euro is trending north. That's a good sign 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Saturday at 01:39 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:39 AM 1st call by NBC4 going with 3-6”+ for EZF to just north of Baltimore and 2-4”+ along the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted Saturday at 01:41 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:41 AM 47 minutes ago, Weather Will said: How reliable is the SREF ARW? WB 21Z Trash. Like the NAM on steroids. Not sure it’s ever been right. Always has insanely high qpf. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Saturday at 01:48 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:48 AM 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Trash. Like the NAM on steroids. Not sure it’s ever been right. Always has insanely high qpf. ARW = Always Really Wet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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