mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 21Z NBM, I know it is a blend of other previous runs.... Just in case anyone was wondering, the purpose for the NBM. As we know, most model suites have their ensembles at lower resolution. NBM was conceived to take operational models for the most part and use them as an ensemble suite. It makes sense since the operationals have the highest resolution. This was told to me on Phillywx by Rainshadow, who retired from NWS Philly a few years ago. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: After it's 1 and only coup on 1/30/10, they retired it in a private ceremony. May God rest its soul. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 14 1 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Come to papa haha. Euro doing its typical waffle 48 hours out before trending back to its 3-4 day depiction? We shall see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just in case anyone was wondering, the purpose for the NBM. As we know, most model suites have their ensembles at lower resolution. NBM was conceived to take operational models for the most part and use them as an ensemble suite. It makes sense since the operationals have the highest resolution. This was told to me on Phillywx by Rainshadow, who retired from NWS Philly a few years ago.I know many tend to hug the snowiest for their backyard, but a blend of all of the major OPs makes total sense for actual forecasting purposes. If GFS / NAM also go south tonight and euro holds serve, that’s when I’ll be a smidge worried for Baltimore & north. And by “worried” I mean 4-6” instead of 8-12” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Sure why not….FV3 with a more expansive northern precip than NAM at 00z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Isn’t it usually said the euro doesn’t usually make big jumps just small gradual ones? but if it keep doing that for the next 4 runs dc would be in the heaviest and we’d be right in the north edge of the bigs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Just in case anyone was wondering, the purpose for the NBM. As we know, most model suites have their ensembles at lower resolution. NBM was conceived to take operational models for the most part and use them as an ensemble suite. It makes sense since the operationals have the highest resolution. This was told to me on Phillywx by Rainshadow, who retired from NWS Philly a few years ago. The NBM is a very useful tool for forecasting when you know how to interpret it and understand its biases. I've been keeping an eye on it and it's been pretty great with handling the swings and limiting the crazy max/min variance from run to run the past few days. It'll be interesting once the CAMs start getting incorporated. That will be a useful way to seeing some of the proposed banding being forecast. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hmm well the euro is trending north. That's a good sign 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1st call by NBC4 going with 3-6”+ for EZF to just north of Baltimore and 2-4”+ along the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 47 minutes ago, Weather Will said: How reliable is the SREF ARW? WB 21Z Trash. Like the NAM on steroids. Not sure it’s ever been right. Always has insanely high qpf. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Trash. Like the NAM on steroids. Not sure it’s ever been right. Always has insanely high qpf. ARW = Always Really Wet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 HRRR was lining us up for a pummeling. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 NAM running 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beagles20 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Trash. Like the NAM on steroids. Not sure it’s ever been right. Always has insanely high qpf. Here's to an 80 mile shift north over the next couple of days to be in the jackpot or for the storm to stay where its at, whichever comes first! Enjoy this one you southerners in the Mid Atlantic! Hopefully, we can squeeze out a couple of inches and be happy here in PA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 So far...flow out front of our S/w is a bit flatter. Nothing dramatic. Like a half of a half of a toe hair 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Well, storm coming, Weather Channel sent someone to DC! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Well, storm coming, Weather Channel sent someone to DC! Oh no that’s not good 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppyX2 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 They “Weather Channel” don’t know any more than you folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Just now, TSSN+ said: Oh no that’s not good It's back to slightly amp'd....never judge early on. It's basically noise..nothing with any huge implications so far IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: HRRR was lining us up for a pummeling. Looks much like the Gfs, Nam, and Srefs for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Oh no that’s not good It really is basically a carbon copy so far at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Not sure if the precip shield is a touch north out west. Or if it is just juicier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It really is basically a carbon copy so far at H5 I was replying to the weather channel coming to dc not you lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Just now, TSSN+ said: I was replying to the weather channel coming to dc not you lol Shit. I might need to drink another gallon of water. Anyway...nothing of note to report so far. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: I was replying to the weather channel coming to dc not you lol They are in KC, Cin. and DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Well, storm coming, Weather Channel sent someone to DC! Has Jim Cantore been sighted? That's how we'll know it's gonna be historic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Nothing notable...s/w just a teenie tiny bit flatter. Confluence just slightly more SW. Still noise range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, IronTy said: Has Jim Cantore been sighted? That's how we'll know it's gonna be historic. KC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, IronTy said: Has Jim Cantore been sighted? That's how we'll know it's gonna be historic. He would have been freaking out about the thunder snow today. Anyhow. NAM is definitely juiced up more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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