stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 I get it mofos....I screwed up. Yall are about to make my cry. 1 2 15 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: This is a thing of beauty. Tomorrow we can watch that 10+ zone creep up to dc and Baltimore. Verbatim it would be better than 2016 blizzard down here. I'm keeping expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I mean it is a noise change but the south bleed on the EURO stopped for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I was off this time. Happens. See my above post No apologies necessary good sir. Thank you for your service and please continue your pbp every time. You are the goat. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: Yeah, shady call by the pbp. Tighten up @stormtracker I hope it rains in all 3 of your locations under your screenname. 1 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: The heavier band is actually a bit further north. We shouldn’t let facts get in the way of irrational panic and despair. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 I'm going to sober up and be sharp for 0z 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I was off this time. Happens. See my above post Too many drinks at lunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Those ratio's on the Euro are awesome though. Like 15-16 to 1. Cold smoke. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I still really like where we are to be very close to ground zero for this. Just let the Euro slowly nudge north and I expect at gametime it will end up a tiny bit north of modeled. I do too tbh. I’ve been saying 4-8” for our area and I don’t see a reason to change that now. But I think better chance of bumping that to 6-12” than 2-4”. 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Another thing i noticed is the confluence the NE is definitely a bit lessened on 18z euro h75 vs 12z. low also a bit stronger. I’d sort of expect a bit more north based on those 2 changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I hope it rains in all 3 of your locations under your screenname. That's the deepest cut you can throw out on this site. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, hstorm said: We shouldn’t let facts get in the way of irrational panic and despair. I assure you all panic here is rational...based on which step we are in the program. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 One tick further north and the Euro is perfect. Nothing wonky about it. Just bring that FGEN band north a tad. That 16 in SBY could so easily be in my yard. sorry @Lowershoresadness 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I said this morning that I figure a diabatically-driven north trend probably starts once the storm has developed. Given the slower trend across all guidance, that might not be until Sunday now. We’ll see. Small shifts like it just did are fine. None of us want it to correct to Scranton tho. Sorry PA people 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Please this is not that serious....it is cold outside, does everyone have a roof and heat tonight on this forum? That is the stuff to stress about. And this is not banter. This is not life and death stuff. It is supposed to be a fun hobby, not make you a nervous wreck. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, H2O said: Small shifts like it just did are fine. None of us want it to correct to Scranton tho. Sorry PA people Yeah that’s not happening. Webb still insisting PHL is gonna jack. We’ll see I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Too many drinks at lunch? Yeah. Check the banter thread. 0z tonight will be telling 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah. Check the banter thread. 0z tonight will be telling I saw pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm going to sober up and be sharp for 0z I told you to lay off the Zimas. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 If Georgetown jacks we all do 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm going to sober up and be sharp for 0z Why? I thought forecasting is like my German and Japanese. The drunker I am the better I speak em. The drunker you are the better your pbp. Don't let up now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Another thing i noticed is the confluence the NE is definitely a bit lessened on 18z euro h75 vs 12z. low also a bit stronger. I’d sort of expect a bit more north based on those 2 changes. To me isn’t this what the gfs and other models showing lobe up north moving further away. I really have a tough time trusting 18z runs there not called off runs for nothing. I’ll be patient until 0z to see real lasting changes or trends as I wave good bye to this little pesky storm stage right and get outta the way of the more important storm on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: If Georgetown jacks we all do Probably gonna be rain in Georgetown unfortunately 2 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I'll see y'all later for the 0z euro, but one quick note for the whiny northerners Based on that run alone, I'd go 6-10" for Manchester - Westminster. Don't take the precip/snow maps too seriously. We've been at this too long. The best secondary banding is going to be north of DC. That’s what I’m thinking too. Hopefully the southern band will get us and run up the accums before any mixing or dry slot, then add a few more on the backend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Feels like the bottom 10% scenario for DC is like 3-4" of snow and sleet and then a whiff on the coastal stuff, so basically GFS round 1 without GFS round 2. Which honestly is not a bad floor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Really comes down to who is handling the H5/H7 features better here. GFS opens the upper low later than the EC and as a result has a more coherent WCB and warm nose, which ends up causing p-type issues but makes up for it somewhat with a stronger backside as the H5/7 vort maxes slide just south. The tracks and timing are otherwise basically the same. Either way, there should be some banding along/just left of the mid-level vort maxes. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Really comes down to who is handling the H5/H7 features better here. GFS opens the upper low later than the EC and as a result has a more coherent WCB and warm nose, which ends up causing p-type issues but makes up for it somewhat with a stronger backside as the H5/7 vort maxes slide just south. The tracks and timing are otherwise basically the same. Either way, there should be some banding along/just left of the mid-level vort maxes. Would love to look back on Tuesday and see which one had it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Still putting my jackpot in the general latitude of Leesburg to germantown to Columbia to Easton for now. Will see how things look by tomorrow 0z but I don’t buy the dc south jack quite yet. Euro has been known to lose things 48 out to get them back closer to game time. Can’t shake the general climo aspect to this storm, especially early on in a cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Probably gonna be rain in Georgetown unfortunately This may be the best post of the thread (for anyone who remembers last year( 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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