SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Friday at 10:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:30 PM 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Fair point, but Euro did come north at 12z from its 6z run, so it may have already reached bottom and is on its way back. Idk. I guess we'll see shortly. Lol Hopefully they coalesce in the middle which gives our entire region a clean warning level storm. That may be the most likely scenario at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 10:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:34 PM As many of you know, this ends up being an IMBY sport near game time. It’s hard for everyone to win, especially to win at a similar level. that being said, this has the chance to be a high % pleaser to some extent for many in the sub forum. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:39 PM Here's a link to the rudimentary map of snowfall thru 84 hrs on the 18z GGEM. The totals are in millimeters, so multiply your color coded area by .4 to get approximate qpf in inches, if you didn't know. It does not account for ratios,just qpf as snow. Snow is over by the end of the run. If you change the model run on the upper right, you can compare changes from 12z and a few earlier runs. You can also change the precip types for ip or zr on the left side. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&type=SN&hi=000&hf=084&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:41 PM 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Here's a link to the rudimentary map of snowfall thru 84 hrs on the 18z GGEM. The totals are in millimeters, so multiply your color coded area by .4 to get approximate qpf in inches, if you didn't know. It does not account for ratios,just qpf as snow. Snow is over by the end of the run. If you change the model run on the upper right, you can compare changes from 12z and a few earlier runs. You can also change the precip types for ip or zr on the left side. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&type=SN&hi=000&hf=084&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc Looks a little juicier for metro corridor and points north? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Friday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:41 PM 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Here's a link to the rudimentary map of snowfall thru 84 hrs on the 18z GGEM. The totals are in millimeters, so multiply your color coded area by .4 to get approximate qpf in inches, if you didn't know. It does not account for ratios,just qpf as snow. Snow is over by the end of the run. If you change the model run on the upper right, you can compare changes from 12z and a few earlier runs. You can also change the precip types for ip or zr on the left side. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&type=SN&hi=000&hf=084&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc Is that showing an inch of qpf all snow for dc/south? 25 mm is approximately 1 inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Friday at 10:42 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:42 PM 20 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Uk still south Funny with that piece of guidance....was the farthest North a few days ago and now the farthest South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 10:42 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:42 PM Just now, WxUSAF said: Looks a little juicier for metro corridor and points north? Yes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 10:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:44 PM Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Funny with that piece of guidance....was the farthest North a few days ago and now the farthest South. Wednesday and yesterday it gave me 2+" today and 12z today gave me 1+". I ended up with a coating in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Friday at 10:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:44 PM 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Is that showing an inch of qpf all snow for dc/south? 25 mm is approximately 1 inch. Example I guess is 30x .04 =1.2 @ 10 to 1= 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 10:45 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:45 PM 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Is that showing an inch of qpf all snow for dc/south? 25 mm is approximately 1 inch. But no mention of ratios. However, closest sleet is around Fredericksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 11:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:00 PM 18z GEFS looks pretty solid. Similar to 12z but just a tad drier. Mixing is a thing on a significant number of members for the lowlands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Friday at 11:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:03 PM 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z GEFS looks pretty solid. Similar to 12z but just a tad drier. Mixing is a thing on a significant number of members for the lowlands. Does the euro have 18Z eps? I'm only asking because I have never seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Friday at 11:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:04 PM 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z GEFS looks pretty solid. Similar to 12z but just a tad drier. Mixing is a thing on a significant number of members for the lowlands. What's your definition of lowlands. How far from the fall line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted Friday at 11:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:06 PM GFS continues to spit out serious amounts in the highlands over the next couple of weeks. I'm up to 7" today and 30" on the year. I hope this rosy outlook verifies - would be like the winters in the 2000s and early 2010s. @jonjon will be buried and us in Oakland/Mountain Lake Park not far behind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Friday at 11:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:07 PM Wednesday and yesterday it gave me 2+" today and 12z today gave me 1+". I ended up with a coating in spots.I’d say predicting the precise location of isolated snow squalls is different than a full storm but… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Friday at 11:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:08 PM 1 minute ago, jayyy said: I’d say predicting the precise location of isolated snow squalls is different than a full storm but… Atmospheric memory is a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 11:09 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:09 PM Alright...Varsity King has begun.... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Friday at 11:10 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:10 PM Atmospheric memory is a thing.Sure. But it’s an arctic front vs a complex storm setup. Not really the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 11:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:11 PM 6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Does the euro have 18Z eps? I'm only asking because I have never seen it. yeah...out to 144 I think Which reminds me. The 18z OP is running right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 11:11 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:11 PM Nothing new at this time. Out to hour 42 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 11:12 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:12 PM ok...out to 51...slightly amp'd s/w...slightly less confluence. No expectations...it's really really minor 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 11:14 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:14 PM Looking at precip...the shield is noticeable souther so far. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted Friday at 11:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:14 PM 1 hour ago, yoda said: Afternoon heavy snow and ice disco from WPC - https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd My colleague Josh Weiss wrote an exceptional discussion for the major winter storm portion. I took care of the other parts of the CONUS today. Lucky me...lol. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 11:14 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:14 PM Kinda recovered. At 66...snow starts at 9z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 11:15 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:15 PM snowing pretty good at 9z...previous post was kinda right..northern edge of.precip is souther...or just slower? Let's see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 11:16 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:16 PM Yeah, heaviest pushed south, but metros still doing ok. And now thermal issues. All snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 11:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:16 PM 11 minutes ago, Paleocene said: What's your definition of lowlands. How far from the fall line? Basically DC and south/east in this case 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 11:16 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:16 PM Yeah...south a bit...drier up this way. Central VA getting it pretty good 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 11:17 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:17 PM Definitely moved south. Central VA RIC gonna be smoked 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Friday at 11:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:17 PM Euro and UK vs all else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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