stormtracker Posted Friday at 09:56 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:56 PM Oh..1am Tuesday has a moderate blob centered over DC...snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Friday at 09:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:57 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's not close on my maps Yeah 9z definitely still snow. This is 12z. Pivotal says sleet on the maps but snow on the sounding. Heavier rates would probably keep it snow but its super close. Splitting hairs with thermals this ‘far’ out on the GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Friday at 09:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:57 PM Checked soundings. Ptype shows sleet but sounds look snowy to me but close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 09:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:57 PM Gfs has that wound up vort that's bringing in the warm tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 09:57 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:57 PM Pulling out at 9z Tuesday...looks done. SOmebody else check thermals. I may have been off with other levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Friday at 09:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:57 PM PV soundings have sleet by 15Z on Monday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 09:57 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:57 PM Just now, nj2va said: Yeah 9z definitely still snow. This is 12z. Pivotal says sleet on the maps but snow on the sounding. Heavier rates would probably keep it snow but its super close. Splitting hairs with thermals this ‘far’ out on the GFS though. Just now, LP08 said: Checked soundings. Ptype shows sleet but sounds look snowy to me but close 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 09:58 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:58 PM Heh..snow maps are decent 10-12...but that includes sleet...so reduce that 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 09:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:58 PM Nice ULL pass this run. Was closed off then opened up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Friday at 09:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:59 PM Stealing @yoda's words, since we seem to post these at the same time, "interesting distribution." 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 09:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:59 PM Just now, clskinsfan said: Nice ULL pass this run. Was closed off then opened up. Fingers crossed that stays closed as long as possible through VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Friday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:00 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Heh..snow maps are decent 10-14...but that includes sleet...so reduce that Pivotal shows 7-8" snow depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted Friday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:00 PM It’s hard to imagine that the thermals are gfs verbatim with the euro/cmc/ukie showing much more persistent cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Friday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:00 PM Been pretty steady 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 10:00 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 10:00 PM 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: looks better. SV is so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Friday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:00 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Friday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:00 PM Great GFS run there. Cold smoke up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:00 PM Plenty of Juice. Just need to keep the cold in place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:00 PM GFS not as exciting as the other model runs, but gives us an idea of what the floor might look like as far as accums go in a warmer/norther scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Friday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:00 PM I hope that back end wraparound verifies. Seems to be key for us southerners on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Friday at 10:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:01 PM Gfs is dead solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Friday at 10:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:01 PM 46 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I kind of like seeing the spread between models because it still shows a range of possibilities between the northernmost/warmest scenario and the southernmost/coldest scenario. The goal posts are starting to narrow, and we're in a good place. Soon, we will start parsing the mesoscale details like best banding, how far N the mix line goes, and when the coastal takes over. You forgot one where the best snow ratios set up in the coldest air on the northern side of the precipitation field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Friday at 10:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:01 PM Just now, Terpeast said: GFS not as exciting as the other model runs, but gives us an idea of what the floor might look like as far as accums go in a warmer/norther scenario. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 10:02 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 10:02 PM 1 minute ago, konksw said: It’s hard to imaging that the thermals are gfs verbatim with the euro/cmc/ukie showing much more persistent cold. Regardless, I'm factoring sleet in for us in the metro. It's a staple of a good event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted Friday at 10:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:02 PM 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Heh..snow maps are decent 10-12...but that includes sleet...so reduce that Won't split hairs if 1" is sleet mixed in with 6-8" of powder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 10:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:03 PM 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Fingers crossed that stays closed as long as possible through VA. I think the confluence is interfering with it, so it probably will open at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted Friday at 10:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:03 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Regardless, I'm factoring sleet in for us in the metro. It's a staple of a good event Fair enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted Friday at 10:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:04 PM 3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Do not like that claw eating Centreville westward… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 10:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:04 PM Just now, TSSN+ said: Huh? Did I confuse you? Sorry. I'm speaking from mby, the other models gave me more snow than the GFS. Plus GFS dry slots me. So I'm not as excited about this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted Friday at 10:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:04 PM Looks like I picked the wrong weekend to quit drinking… ….like I was even remotely serious! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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