Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Chris78 said: 1 man's floor is another man's ceiling. Haha true 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: Feels like they're slowly but surely coalescing. 18Z model runs thus far. One thing I'm noticing is how juicy and north-ish the GFS is to our west. Meanwhile in Indiana the same place has between 5 and 22 inches across those runs… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Stealing @yoda's words, since we seem to post these at the same time, "interesting distribution." Siiiiign me up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Very interesting to see the maximums differ so much between the GFS and Euro. GFS has it over MD while the Euro has it south of D.C. and both have shown those solutions consistently. Yeah it’s very hard for me to buy the warmer solutions when the euro/uk say it’s 24 degrees in dc and snowing with a jack south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Siiiiign me up! Not signing that crap lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yeah it’s very hard for me to buy the warmer solutions when the euro/uk say it’s 24 degrees in dc and snowing with a jack south. I'm sure it'll all be cleared up in 90mins when we coalesce again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The GFS evolution is too wonky. Big ass dry slot. Mixing issues. Back end is decent as advertised but would probably be less impressive in realty. Much prefer the Euro, but a bit further north. 11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Better ratios up N and also some coastal love for NEMD and DE. Solid snow all around for the entire metro & surrounding areas, but as I’ve said for days, I’d be pretty surprised if DC south sees more snow than Columbia Baltimore Bel Air etc. This storm has central MD written all over it. Models have been waffling 50-75 miles here and there, which is to be expected and is still remarkable accuracy 3-5 days out, but our climo rarely fails to tell the story at the end of the day, especially at the front end of a cold pattern. 90+% of us will see warning level snowfall. About the best we could ask for to kick off a potentially epic January. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yeah it’s very hard for me to buy the warmer solutions when the euro/uk say it’s 24 degrees in dc and snowing with a jack south. Well, from this 18z forecast today and when the first flakes are supposed to start falling, it's 2.5 days. So from that perspective, it is certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, Solution Man said: That blows for us in this area Toss it 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Meanwhile in Indiana the same place has between 5 and 22 inches across those runs… I’ll bet they haven’t even had a forum post in hours. Maybe days or months. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Duh? Dude you are in fucking PA lol. What’s your point it shows DC getting 9” of snow. Y’all will complain about everything. Sure this run give me like 10” but as long as I get like 4-6” I’d be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Well, from this 18z forecast today and when the first flakes are supposed to start falling, it's 2.5 days. So from that perspective, it is certainly possible. Possible yes, but maybe not most likely. If the euro and uk start creeping towards that I’ll buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18Z Ukie appears to be staying the course with its southerly track at 18Z (only goes to 66 for me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 17 minutes ago, Terpeast said: GFS not as exciting as the other model runs, but gives us an idea of what the floor might look like as far as accums go in a warmer/norther scenario. Even then it looked pretty good. Shows the dual maxima as well. Can’t say I’m upset by any of these latest runs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Possible yes, but maybe not most likely. If the euro and uk start creeping towards that I’ll buy it. Fair point, but Euro did come north at 12z from its 6z run, so it may have already reached bottom and is on its way back. Idk. I guess we'll see shortly. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Uk still south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: What’s your point it shows DC getting 9” of snow. Y’all will complain about everything. Sure this run give me like 10” but as long as I get like 4-6” I’d be happy. You do realize a solid chunk of this subforum lives south of DC, right? You're responding to those people. I get 2" of snow and then frozen slop for 12 hrs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, TSG said: You do realize a solid chunk of this subforum lives south of DC, right? You're responding to those people. I get 2" of snow and then frozen slop for 12 hrs. We don't exist down here. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, TSG said: You do realize a solid chunk of this subforum lives south of DC, right? You're responding to those people. I get 2" of snow and then frozen slop for 12 hrs. Better than 33 deg rain or being too far north for anything. Be nice if it was a more widespread system but at least it’s more than we have had to really track in years. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: What’s your point it shows DC getting 9” of snow. Y’all will complain about everything. Sure this run give me like 10” but as long as I get like 4-6” I’d be happy. GTFOH with that crap. There would likely be a significant period of non-snow ptype on the GFS from DC south and east, plus a dry slot. DC isn't getting 9 with that evolution. But go ahead and take the model output verbatim. 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, TSSN+ said: Better than 33 deg rain or being too far north for anything. Be nice if it was a more widespread system but at least it’s more than we have had to really track in years. my point is the people complaining are not forecast to get anywhere close to 9", so give us a break! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 really nailbiting part of tracking come up. i feel like all models evolve roughly the same with that NS over the great lakes, but gfs having a slower storm allows it to buckle in while it's suppressive on models like the euro. all comes down to the way it amplifies over plains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Fair point, but Euro did come north at 12z from its 6z run, so it may have already reached bottom and is on its way back. Idk. I guess we'll see shortly. Lol Hopefully they coalesce in the middle which gives our entire region a clean warning level storm. That may be the most likely scenario at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 As many of you know, this ends up being an IMBY sport near game time. It’s hard for everyone to win, especially to win at a similar level. that being said, this has the chance to be a high % pleaser to some extent for many in the sub forum. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Here's a link to the rudimentary map of snowfall thru 84 hrs on the 18z GGEM. The totals are in millimeters, so multiply your color coded area by .4 to get approximate qpf in inches, if you didn't know. It does not account for ratios,just qpf as snow. Snow is over by the end of the run. If you change the model run on the upper right, you can compare changes from 12z and a few earlier runs. You can also change the precip types for ip or zr on the left side. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&type=SN&hi=000&hf=084&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Here's a link to the rudimentary map of snowfall thru 84 hrs on the 18z GGEM. The totals are in millimeters, so multiply your color coded area by .4 to get approximate qpf in inches, if you didn't know. It does not account for ratios,just qpf as snow. Snow is over by the end of the run. If you change the model run on the upper right, you can compare changes from 12z and a few earlier runs. You can also change the precip types for ip or zr on the left side. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&type=SN&hi=000&hf=084&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc Looks a little juicier for metro corridor and points north? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Here's a link to the rudimentary map of snowfall thru 84 hrs on the 18z GGEM. The totals are in millimeters, so multiply your color coded area by .4 to get approximate qpf in inches, if you didn't know. It does not account for ratios,just qpf as snow. Snow is over by the end of the run. If you change the model run on the upper right, you can compare changes from 12z and a few earlier runs. You can also change the precip types for ip or zr on the left side. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&type=SN&hi=000&hf=084&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc Is that showing an inch of qpf all snow for dc/south? 25 mm is approximately 1 inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 20 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Uk still south Funny with that piece of guidance....was the farthest North a few days ago and now the farthest South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, WxUSAF said: Looks a little juicier for metro corridor and points north? Yes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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