stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Heh..snow maps are decent 10-12...but that includes sleet...so reduce that 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Nice ULL pass this run. Was closed off then opened up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Stealing @yoda's words, since we seem to post these at the same time, "interesting distribution." 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, clskinsfan said: Nice ULL pass this run. Was closed off then opened up. Fingers crossed that stays closed as long as possible through VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Heh..snow maps are decent 10-14...but that includes sleet...so reduce that Pivotal shows 7-8" snow depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It’s hard to imagine that the thermals are gfs verbatim with the euro/cmc/ukie showing much more persistent cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Been pretty steady 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: looks better. SV is so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Great GFS run there. Cold smoke up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Plenty of Juice. Just need to keep the cold in place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS not as exciting as the other model runs, but gives us an idea of what the floor might look like as far as accums go in a warmer/norther scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I hope that back end wraparound verifies. Seems to be key for us southerners on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Gfs is dead solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 46 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I kind of like seeing the spread between models because it still shows a range of possibilities between the northernmost/warmest scenario and the southernmost/coldest scenario. The goal posts are starting to narrow, and we're in a good place. Soon, we will start parsing the mesoscale details like best banding, how far N the mix line goes, and when the coastal takes over. You forgot one where the best snow ratios set up in the coldest air on the northern side of the precipitation field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Terpeast said: GFS not as exciting as the other model runs, but gives us an idea of what the floor might look like as far as accums go in a warmer/norther scenario. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, konksw said: It’s hard to imaging that the thermals are gfs verbatim with the euro/cmc/ukie showing much more persistent cold. Regardless, I'm factoring sleet in for us in the metro. It's a staple of a good event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Heh..snow maps are decent 10-12...but that includes sleet...so reduce that Won't split hairs if 1" is sleet mixed in with 6-8" of powder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Fingers crossed that stays closed as long as possible through VA. I think the confluence is interfering with it, so it probably will open at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Regardless, I'm factoring sleet in for us in the metro. It's a staple of a good event Fair enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Do not like that claw eating Centreville westward… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, TSSN+ said: Huh? Did I confuse you? Sorry. I'm speaking from mby, the other models gave me more snow than the GFS. Plus GFS dry slots me. So I'm not as excited about this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Looks like I picked the wrong weekend to quit drinking… ….like I was even remotely serious! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Terpeast said: Did I confuse you? Sorry. I'm speaking from mby, the other models gave me more snow than the GFS. Plus GFS dry slots me. So I'm not as excited about this run. That blows for us in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Terpeast said: Did I confuse you? Sorry. I'm speaking from mby, the other models gave me more snow than the GFS. Plus GFS dry slots me. So I'm not as excited about this run. It’s pretty much area wide warnings so it’s pretty nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Feels like they're slowly but surely coalescing. 18Z model runs thus far. One thing I'm noticing is how juicy and north-ish the GFS is to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Very interesting to see the maximums differ so much between the GFS and Euro. GFS has it over MD while the Euro has it south of D.C. and both have shown those solutions consistently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Did I confuse you? Sorry. I'm speaking from mby, the other models gave me more snow than the GFS. Plus GFS dry slots me. So I'm not as excited about this run. 1 man's floor is another man's ceiling. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Regardless, I'm factoring sleet in for us in the metro. It's a staple of a good event If you like long duration snow cover root for some sleet since it takes forever to melt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Huh? Duh? Dude you are in fucking PA lol. 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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