Amped Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 People need to realize you can mix and still get the jackpot. The January 2011 storm had about 6hrs of sleet in areas that got over 10". It might be the case with this storm as well due to the strong confluence zone and trailing ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Even with the NAM overprediction of precip, that is a wild number for an event where the surface never gets above 28 degrees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Don't know if anyone noticed, but the sfc low track was about 40 miles south of previous NAM runs. Yet precip more North and NE with heavier amounts, coastal impact? Faster transfer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: As a central MDer I'm not sure whether to root for that or not... It doesn't hurt us as much because the northern edge isn't nearly as tight and the WAA slug isn't hitting the wall. The lobe of energy to the north edges in once the snow has crossed into our area from what the NAM shows. Also, the damn coastal had taken over and was kicking really nicely at h84. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Even with the NAM overprediction of precip, that is a wild number for an event where the surface never gets above 28 degrees. And ~1.25”+ of that is snow on the precip type maps. Wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 This type of setup is one where you can still cash pretty good despite any flip to IP. I feel the WAA regime will likely provide some pingers to areas as far north as Rt32, but it could be brief before the thermals improve with the CCB takeover as the surface low off the coast matures. The 5H/7H vort pass is becoming important, but the good news right now is that is becoming increasingly favorable for the region. There will be 8+” totals from this for several locations as I mentioned early this morning before I left work. I will continue going on the record mentioning that there will be dual maxima in this setup with one likely along and north of I-70 and another between I-66 and Rt32. Very impressive dynamics at play as progged. The chances for WSW snowfall is improving incrementally at this juncture. There would have to be a very hard shift in order for the region to fail completely. The players are all on the field. I feel 00z is when we will start seeing less spread and tomorrow evening is when we can start parsing more intricate details. It’s gonna snow y’all 24 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is precip happy though. I'd keep that in mind. Normally I'd peg the zone of S+ much farther north given mid level track, but strong 850-700 fronto may keep the snow max a little south of one might expect. I still think nrn MD to far srn PA may be jack for now. Genuine question: Would you disregard the ECMWF's/Ukie's far southern track, then? It seems other models have been shifting that way today, but maybe it's going to wind up as a meet-in-the-middle type deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This type of setup is one where you can still cash pretty good despite any flip to IP. I feel the WAA regime will likely provide some pingers to areas as far north as Rt32, but it could be brief before the thermals improve with the CCB takeover as the surface low off the coast matures. The 5H/7H vort pass is becoming important, but the good news right now is that is becoming increasingly favorable for the region. There will be 8+” totals from this for several locations as I mentioned early this morning before I left work. I will continue going on the record mentioning that there will be dual maxima in this setup with one likely along and north of I-70 and another between I-66 and Rt32. Very impressive dynamics at play as progged. The chances for WSW snowfall is improving incrementally at this juncture. There would have to be a very hard shift in order for the region to fail completely. The players are all on the field. I feel 00z is when we will start seeing less spread and tomorrow evening is when we can start parsing more intricate details. It’s gonna snow y’all Did you mean MD route 32? I checked, it runs north-south, so its kinda confusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, StormyClearweather said: Genuine question: Would you disregard the ECMWF's/Ukie's far southern track, then? It seems other models have been shifting that way today, but maybe it's going to wind up as a meet-in-the-middle type deal? Like I said earlier, it's the NAM beyond 36 hrs out lol. You have a big block that is just north of New England. It's not going to launch 150miles north at this stage. But I know for those on the line, any subtle shift matters. NAM solution is viable to me though. Definitely in the range of possibilities and I always watch for a shift north from now until go-time. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Did you mean MD route 32? I checked, it runs north-south, so its kinda confusing Probably meant the eastern part of 32 where it's a bit more E/W ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Did you mean MD route 32? I checked, it runs north-south, so its kinda confusing Yes, sorry for any confusion! MD32 to be more specific. I’m still waking up. I laid back down for a little more sleep and woke up to my spidey senses tingling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The NAM is definitely known to be overly optimistic on qpf but was the qpf on this run that out of line on what we saw from some other model runs earlier? There might be a larger area of the heavier qpf on the NAM but other models showed areas with 1.25 to 1.5ish inches of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is precip happy though. I'd keep that in mind. Normally I'd peg the zone of S+ much farther north given mid level track, but strong 850-700 fronto may keep the snow max a little south of where one might expect. I still think nrn MD to far srn PA may be jack for now. Sweet thanks. Holding you to that. - resident along MD line 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Some changes definitely less confluence so far and more northern stream interaction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I am not too sure I am going to like the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 ICON is gonna be south of 12Z with less thump north of the Potomac 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Interstate said: I am not too sure I am going to like the ICON Yea def more south southeast of its 12z position with moisture and the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Getting NAM'd means this storm is legit. We obviously know we're not getting 15" but a NAM'ing is a rite of passage for these storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Model spray is kinda crazy for this close to the game 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 ICON is fine. Delivers on the backside as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Something to really pay attention to I guess. You can see the northern energy/confluence making a more concerted effort to push down from north of Wisconsin into Wisconsin now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Icon has gone off the rails the last 9 18z runs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 A definite southward shift in Nam at 18z. D.C. now in the bullseye. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 ICON has the bullseye between DC and EZF. 6” line just north of DC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: I am not too sure I am going to like the ICON Its the icon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 RGEM coming in hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 28 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm not mad at it. Just needs a few degrees colder. This far out, can't really ask for much more from the NAM It was super torchy at 12z and this cooled off some. Not sweating it when its still way out at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just slight changes 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: ICON is fine. Delivers on the backside as well. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, yoda said: Backside love. That’s great. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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