Bob Chill Posted Friday at 07:20 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:20 PM 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I hope you know I was kidding. Great to hear. Lol. Yea man. I've known you almost as long as my younger twins. Hahaha. Now stay off my lawn and fix your walker divots on the way out 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 07:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:21 PM 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. Yea man. I've known you almost as long as my younger twins. Hahaha. Now stay off my lawn and fix your walker divots on the way out Sorry. They don't make tennis balls like they used to. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted Friday at 07:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:32 PM 25 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Been reading for the last four days. I'm now convinced the closest analogue here is January 2010, roughly 2-3 weeks before Snowmageddon. People forget the number of storms we had in '09-'10. We got quite a bit of snow outside the three blizzards. This analogue isn't on Ray's storm archive because it didn't really reach NJ. But it was depicted by several models to blast NC and VA, leaving DC with a few Advisory-level inches--and while the former came true, the moisture shield spread much farther north than anticipated. I was working at SUBWAY in College Park as a senior in college, and I remember getting snowed in at work. We easily got 6-8" that day. The track and setup are very similar here. I'm betting the precip shield ends up blooming norther than depicted now, with a wider max stripe. I remember it well -- I drove to my parents in Calvert with 8-10 expected there and 1-2 for Germantown. They got 8 and Germantown got 7 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:38 PM Sorry if posted before. Afternoon AFD from LWX. Bolded is my own emphasis. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday will start off dry as surface high pressure shifts offshore to our southeast. High temperatures will be in the 30s for most with those along the highest elevations and in the Alleghenies staying in the 20s. By Sunday afternoon, snowfall moves into the southwestern portions of the forecast area as a low pressure system tracks from the Mississippi River Valley towards the forecast area. Snowfall spreads throughout the forecast area Sunday afternoon and continues overnight. Cold temperatures will likely lead to precipitation type being primarily snow, though a warm nose aloft will likely lead to sleet/freezing rain mixing in overnight. Highest chances for sleet/freezing rain is across central Virginia and into the Allegheny Highlands. Ice accumulation forecast ranges from zero in the northwestern portions of the area to up to a quarter inch near Charlottesville. Currently have ice staying south of the I-66 corridor, though there remains uncertainty in the forecast given the event being several days out. For snowfall, highest forecast totals remain along and west of the Alleghenies where totals of 8 to 10 inches are forecast. Further east, snowfall accumulation is forecast across the entire area with totals ranging from 2 inches in the southernmost portions of the area to nearing 8 inches across central Maryland/eastern panhandle of WV and the western portions of Virginia. Metro areas will likely see 4 to 6 inches of snow with higher totals possible. The exact snow total forecast is subject to change due to the winter event being 4 days away and model variability with mixed precipitation. 12Z guidance continues to show a good bit of discrepancy with the ECMWF having highest totals farther south and the NAM having highest totals along the MD/PA border. We will continue to monitor the forecast as the event gets closer, but for now prepare for a moderate winter storm bringing mixed wintry precipitation to the area Sunday into Monday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 07:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:41 PM 4 days away? Snow is like 72 hours away I thought 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpljr77 Posted Friday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:42 PM Capital Weather Gang's first map is up: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/03/dc-region-snow-winter-storm-forecast-ice/?itid=lk_fullstory 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Friday at 07:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:50 PM 8 minutes ago, yoda said: 4 days away? Snow is like 72 hours away I thought I assume they always include first flake to last flake, which I guess would be four days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Friday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:55 PM 12 minutes ago, jpljr77 said: Capital Weather Gang's first map is up: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/03/dc-region-snow-winter-storm-forecast-ice/?itid=lk_fullstory This looks like a reasonable call at this stage. And it's nice to finally have a map where it's a solid stripe region wide, without gradations running SW-->NE, where the mountains/piedmont get snow, and we in the metro corridor/fall line and lowlands get mix. Reminds me of the January storms last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted Friday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:57 PM 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: This looks like a reasonable call at this stage. And it's nice to finally have a map where it's a solid stripe region wide, without gradations running SW-->NE, where the mountains/piedmont get snow, and we in the metro corridor/fall line and lowlands get mix. Reminds me of the January storms last winter. I think it’s a good call also, although the “boom” potential (at least localized) seems more likely than a bust for much of the area if the call is 4-8” 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 08:00 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 08:00 PM Alright yall. Let's get into the 18z stuff. NAM is up 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 08:01 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 08:01 PM It's early...but so far s/w is LESS amp'd. But only by a hair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Friday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:02 PM Phewwwwwww Blacksburg with the Winter Storm Watch for ice accretion up to 4 tenths of an inch.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Friday at 08:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:03 PM Latest SREF has bwi at 8 inches and storms not over yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 08:07 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 08:07 PM Still a bit flatter out front vs 12z. Nothing hugely different so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Friday at 08:12 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:12 PM Confluence looks a bit sharper by hr 32 and s/w is a bit more flat. May be negligible in the next 10 minutes but it’s noticeable enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Friday at 08:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:13 PM Thank God we use touchscreens now and not the old blackberry keyboards. I'd wear out the browser refresh button on every model run. Wish WB would just release an app that automatically loaded the newest frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Friday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:14 PM 32 minutes ago, yoda said: 4 days away? Snow is like 72 hours away I thought More like 2.5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 08:16 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 08:16 PM No huge changes. S./w just a tiny bit flatter. Confluence just a tiny bit relaxed. Seems like they cancel each other and things are holding so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted Friday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:17 PM 4 minutes ago, IronTy said: Thank God we use touchscreens now and not the old blackberry keyboards. I'd wear out the browser refresh button on every model run. Wish WB would just release an app that automatically loaded the newest frames. On the contrary, those are a lot easier to use in the snow itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Friday at 08:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:18 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: No huge changes. S./w just a tiny bit flatter. Confluence just a tiny bit relaxed. Seems like they cancel each other and things are holding so far I like the precipitation expansion over places like Missouri etc.. seem to be juicing that up thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 08:19 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 08:19 PM Just now, Buddy1987 said: I like the precipitation expansion over places like Missouri etc.. seem to be juicing that up thus far. yeah, but I think the NAM may come in a bit north, which is no bueno for us...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Friday at 08:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:19 PM Just now, konksw said: On the contrary, those are a lot easier to use in the snow itself Once it starts snowing I switch to radarscope. And I guess the HRRR so there's that I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 08:20 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 08:20 PM So far, precip northern extent has increased, temps remain the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Friday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:23 PM Looks like the LP is winding.up a bit tighter over OK on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Friday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:23 PM Front end is definitely trending north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 08:25 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 08:25 PM Precip field's northen extend is def more norther so far...temps still are about the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted Friday at 08:26 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:26 PM It’s 3:30 on a Friday so NAM has definitely been drinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Friday at 08:26 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:26 PM 3 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Front end is definitely trending north Classic comma head shape 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 08:28 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 08:28 PM If I had to predict, thermals are prob gonna hold or be slightly worse, altho confluence is just slightly better. Let's wait and see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 08:29 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:29 PM Looks like the 540 line ticked a hair north. So did the front end precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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