Paleocene Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12 minutes ago, jpljr77 said: Capital Weather Gang's first map is up: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/03/dc-region-snow-winter-storm-forecast-ice/?itid=lk_fullstory This looks like a reasonable call at this stage. And it's nice to finally have a map where it's a solid stripe region wide, without gradations running SW-->NE, where the mountains/piedmont get snow, and we in the metro corridor/fall line and lowlands get mix. Reminds me of the January storms last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: This looks like a reasonable call at this stage. And it's nice to finally have a map where it's a solid stripe region wide, without gradations running SW-->NE, where the mountains/piedmont get snow, and we in the metro corridor/fall line and lowlands get mix. Reminds me of the January storms last winter. I think it’s a good call also, although the “boom” potential (at least localized) seems more likely than a bust for much of the area if the call is 4-8” 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Alright yall. Let's get into the 18z stuff. NAM is up 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 It's early...but so far s/w is LESS amp'd. But only by a hair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Phewwwwwww Blacksburg with the Winter Storm Watch for ice accretion up to 4 tenths of an inch.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Latest SREF has bwi at 8 inches and storms not over yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Still a bit flatter out front vs 12z. Nothing hugely different so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Confluence looks a bit sharper by hr 32 and s/w is a bit more flat. May be negligible in the next 10 minutes but it’s noticeable enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Thank God we use touchscreens now and not the old blackberry keyboards. I'd wear out the browser refresh button on every model run. Wish WB would just release an app that automatically loaded the newest frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 32 minutes ago, yoda said: 4 days away? Snow is like 72 hours away I thought More like 2.5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 No huge changes. S./w just a tiny bit flatter. Confluence just a tiny bit relaxed. Seems like they cancel each other and things are holding so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, IronTy said: Thank God we use touchscreens now and not the old blackberry keyboards. I'd wear out the browser refresh button on every model run. Wish WB would just release an app that automatically loaded the newest frames. On the contrary, those are a lot easier to use in the snow itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: No huge changes. S./w just a tiny bit flatter. Confluence just a tiny bit relaxed. Seems like they cancel each other and things are holding so far I like the precipitation expansion over places like Missouri etc.. seem to be juicing that up thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Just now, Buddy1987 said: I like the precipitation expansion over places like Missouri etc.. seem to be juicing that up thus far. yeah, but I think the NAM may come in a bit north, which is no bueno for us...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, konksw said: On the contrary, those are a lot easier to use in the snow itself Once it starts snowing I switch to radarscope. And I guess the HRRR so there's that I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 So far, precip northern extent has increased, temps remain the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Looks like the LP is winding.up a bit tighter over OK on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Front end is definitely trending north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Precip field's northen extend is def more norther so far...temps still are about the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It’s 3:30 on a Friday so NAM has definitely been drinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Front end is definitely trending north Classic comma head shape 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 If I had to predict, thermals are prob gonna hold or be slightly worse, altho confluence is just slightly better. Let's wait and see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Looks like the 540 line ticked a hair north. So did the front end precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 You can tell this group is desperate for Snow when we are doing Play by Play of the NAM at 60+ hours out. lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: If I had to predict, thermals are prob gonna hold or be slightly worse, altho confluence is just slightly better. Let's wait and see when do we start taking the NAM 12k Seriously? Sunday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Shad said: You can tell this group is desperate for Snow when we are doing Play by Play of the NAM at 60+ hours out. lol You must be new here 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, yoda said: Looks like a…uh, never mind. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 At 60 hrs, height line about 50 miles or so north of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The NAM looks good. Gets us more of the WAA than last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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