caviman2201 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: How about up here? 4.6" for inner harbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We’re not in the jackpot zone but I’ll take the free room and buffet and 100 free slot play Who knows how this shakes out, but having the jackpot zone a little south of our backyards 60 hours out on the Euro is a great spot to be IMHO. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: They seem to think that CAD holds strong and keeps mixed precip to the south of DCA Just a heads up, but that map is very very rudimentary and only takes into account what could be the predominant Ptype for the 24 period. That is also not an exact science. It’s a quick and dirty way to put precip forecast on the map. Typically used as a glance for public and people just wanting something very quick to look at which you would be surprised the higher level people that end up seeing that map. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I like that jack zone being 50 miles south of us at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Just a heads up, but that map is very very rudimentary and only takes into account what could be the predominant Ptype for the 24 period. That is also not an exact science. It’s a quick and dirty way to put precip forecast on the map. Typically used as a glance for public and people just wanting something very quick to look at which you would be surprised the higher level people that end up seeing that map. Gotcha, thanks. Good to know it wasn't intended for scrutiny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Probabilities bumped up on the northern end and the axis of highest probabilities shifted a bit north too. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 33 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We’re not in the jackpot zone but I’ll take the free room and unlimited Alaskan crab legs buffet and $1000 free slot play. Fixed. And after your buffet and free slot play, you go outside and are surprised by 8 inches pow on the ground and a death band overhead that refuses to budge, and you are forced to stay overnight in the casino and that was how you ended up winning a 55,000 dollar jackpot AND got jackpotted by the HECS as well, after all. That's the kind of winter you guys are gonna enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 For the northern crew, remember the banding near the northern edge is always tighter and underdone. That huge area of light qpf will end up sharper and heavier until you hit the wall. Add in the higher ratios and this is just a generalization but if you are inside the .3 qpf heading into the final 24 hours you’re good. Outside that you risk the fringe. 15 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: For the northern crew, remember the banding near the northern edge is always tighter and underdone. That huge area of light qpf will end up sharper and heavier until you hit the wall. Add in the higher ratios and this is just a generalization but if you are inside the .3 qpf heading into the final 24 hours you’re good. Outside that you risk the fringe. Are you going to do live model analysis tonight and send out a link to join? Always enjoy that and it’s been a while since it was worthwhile. Either way, Happy New Year! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 If you care about what the srefs have to say, good news. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: If you care about what the srefs have to say, good news. Tough forecast for the Wakefield office. Very high bust potential... even moreso than here or Mt Holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 For the northern crew, going off the Euro only, things don't look as bad as some might portray. Surface temps are in the low 20's throughout but more importantly 850's are -8. Pretty reasonable to expect 15-18 to 1 ratios. As long as expectations are reasonable we're still very much in the game for 4-6 with the very strong possibility this nudges further north. If we get .3-.4 liquid were good to go. Accumulated snow still gets well into PA even on the south/dry runs. The upside is much better than the downside with this event in my opinion. Plus something like GFS is showing isn't completely out of the question. 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: For the northern crew, going off the Euro only, things don't look as bad as some might portray. Surface temps are in the low 20's throughout but more importantly 850's are -8. Pretty reasonable to expect 15-18 to 1 ratios. As long as expectations are reasonable we're still very much in the game for 4-6 with the very strong possibility this nudges further north. If we get .3-.4 liquid were good to go. Accumulated snow still gets well into PA even on the south/dry runs. The upside is much better than the downside with this event in my opinion. Plus something like GFS is showing isn't completely out of the question. Yeah. It is worth noting that the EPS only has 10:1 snowfall ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Tough forecast for the Wakefield office. Very high bust potential... even moreso than here or Mt Holly That is true, I think for Wakefield purposes, Louisa, Caroline and Fluvanna counties will probably go under WSW I would think at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Been reading for the last four days. I'm now convinced the closest analogue here is January 2010, roughly 2-3 weeks before Snowmageddon. People forget the number of storms we had in '09-'10. We got quite a bit of snow outside the three blizzards. This analogue isn't on Ray's storm archive because it didn't really reach NJ. But it was depicted by several models to blast NC and VA, leaving DC with a few Advisory-level inches--and while the former came true, the moisture shield spread much farther north than anticipated. I was working at SUBWAY in College Park as a senior in college, and I remember getting snowed in at work. We easily got 6-8" that day. The track and setup are very similar here. I'm betting the precip shield ends up blooming norther than depicted now, with a wider max stripe. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 42 minutes ago, nj2va said: Probabilities bumped up on the northern end and the axis of highest probabilities shifted a bit north too. Whoa, University of Virginia is going to get 90"-100" inches of snow. That's like 4 feet!!! No streaking the "The Lawn" on Sunday night! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Been reading for the last four days. I'm now convinced the closest analogue here is January 2010, roughly 2-3 weeks before Snowmageddon. People forget the number of storms we had in '09-'10. We got quite a bit of snow outside the three blizzards. This analogue isn't on Ray's storm archive because it didn't really reach NJ. But it was depicted by several models to blast NC and VA, leaving DC with a few Advisory-level inches--and while the former came true, the moisture shield spread much farther north than anticipated. I was working at SUBWAY in College Park as a senior in college, and I remember getting snowed in at work. We easily got 6-8" that day. The track and setup are very similar here. I'm betting the precip shield ends up blooming norther than depicted now, with a wider max stripe. that would be sweet. Keep the Euro track but moisten up the northern edge up to Rt 30 in PA to around 0.4 or 0.5 liquid and everyone gets an easy win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 54 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Looks like max stripe is between RIC and DC. Hmm, based on the history of my area, that's congrats I-66, but I'm happy to wrong. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just for the mental exercise and curiosity, I checked soundings on the euro for smith mtn lake area. I don't lose the column until 12z Monday and over .75 liquid falls. Obviously grape nuts are hitting pretty good by 12z but sounding says all snow at 9z so idk? Am I going to back my way into this? Lol Eta: just realized it's the 6z run. TT is slow lol. 12z prob stole all my snow 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Bob Chill said: Just for the mental exercise and curiosity, I checked soundings on the euro for smith mtn lake area. I don't lose the column until 12z Monday and over .75 liquid falls. Obviously grape nuts are hitting pretty good by 12z but sounding says all snow at 9z so idk? Am I going to back my way into this? Lol Our area really is all over on this one. I’ll also be curious to see how the CAD helps us. I’m up in Eagle Rock so I’m thinking we will see more snow than is being shown on the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Just for the mental exercise and curiosity, I checked soundings on the euro for smith mtn lake area. I don't lose the column until 12z Monday and over .75 liquid falls. Obviously grape nuts are hitting pretty good by 12z but sounding says all snow at 9z so idk? Am I going to back my way into this? Lol No you're not. In fact, you're wasting our time and your time, so beat it. How you doing otherwise Bob? 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: No you're not. In fact, you're wasting our time and your time, so beat it. How you doing otherwise Bob? Loving life man even if I get no snow. I'm interested in 12z soundings. I haven't looked at any really because I figured my fate was sealed mostly. My initial gut call some days ago was an inch b4 mixy mess with the boom scenario being 3" tops. Still probably a good call but my interest has gone up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Bob Chill said: Loving life man even if I get no snow. I'm interested in 12z soundings. I haven't looked at any really because I figured my fate was sealed mostly. My initial gut call some days ago was an inch b4 mixy mess with the boom scenario being 3" tops. Still probably a good call but my interest has gone up I hope you know I was kidding. Great to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I hope you know I was kidding. Great to hear. Lol. Yea man. I've known you almost as long as my younger twins. Hahaha. Now stay off my lawn and fix your walker divots on the way out 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. Yea man. I've known you almost as long as my younger twins. Hahaha. Now stay off my lawn and fix your walker divots on the way out Sorry. They don't make tennis balls like they used to. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 25 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Been reading for the last four days. I'm now convinced the closest analogue here is January 2010, roughly 2-3 weeks before Snowmageddon. People forget the number of storms we had in '09-'10. We got quite a bit of snow outside the three blizzards. This analogue isn't on Ray's storm archive because it didn't really reach NJ. But it was depicted by several models to blast NC and VA, leaving DC with a few Advisory-level inches--and while the former came true, the moisture shield spread much farther north than anticipated. I was working at SUBWAY in College Park as a senior in college, and I remember getting snowed in at work. We easily got 6-8" that day. The track and setup are very similar here. I'm betting the precip shield ends up blooming norther than depicted now, with a wider max stripe. I remember it well -- I drove to my parents in Calvert with 8-10 expected there and 1-2 for Germantown. They got 8 and Germantown got 7 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Sorry if posted before. Afternoon AFD from LWX. Bolded is my own emphasis. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday will start off dry as surface high pressure shifts offshore to our southeast. High temperatures will be in the 30s for most with those along the highest elevations and in the Alleghenies staying in the 20s. By Sunday afternoon, snowfall moves into the southwestern portions of the forecast area as a low pressure system tracks from the Mississippi River Valley towards the forecast area. Snowfall spreads throughout the forecast area Sunday afternoon and continues overnight. Cold temperatures will likely lead to precipitation type being primarily snow, though a warm nose aloft will likely lead to sleet/freezing rain mixing in overnight. Highest chances for sleet/freezing rain is across central Virginia and into the Allegheny Highlands. Ice accumulation forecast ranges from zero in the northwestern portions of the area to up to a quarter inch near Charlottesville. Currently have ice staying south of the I-66 corridor, though there remains uncertainty in the forecast given the event being several days out. For snowfall, highest forecast totals remain along and west of the Alleghenies where totals of 8 to 10 inches are forecast. Further east, snowfall accumulation is forecast across the entire area with totals ranging from 2 inches in the southernmost portions of the area to nearing 8 inches across central Maryland/eastern panhandle of WV and the western portions of Virginia. Metro areas will likely see 4 to 6 inches of snow with higher totals possible. The exact snow total forecast is subject to change due to the winter event being 4 days away and model variability with mixed precipitation. 12Z guidance continues to show a good bit of discrepancy with the ECMWF having highest totals farther south and the NAM having highest totals along the MD/PA border. We will continue to monitor the forecast as the event gets closer, but for now prepare for a moderate winter storm bringing mixed wintry precipitation to the area Sunday into Monday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 days away? Snow is like 72 hours away I thought 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpljr77 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Capital Weather Gang's first map is up: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/03/dc-region-snow-winter-storm-forecast-ice/?itid=lk_fullstory 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, yoda said: 4 days away? Snow is like 72 hours away I thought I assume they always include first flake to last flake, which I guess would be four days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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