WEATHER53 Posted Friday at 05:09 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:09 PM I’m a big believer in the overrunning but not the coastal. The low usually jumps too far northeast and we miss out. We can get substantial backlash but only in like 1 out of every 5 B transfer set ups . The overrun hit is like 4+ out of every 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Friday at 05:09 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:09 PM Moved towards euro / gfs / cmc. All I wanted to see out of the Ukie. The setup upstairs looks good. Not worried about short pump seeing more than us ultimately. Big run coming up shortly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Friday at 05:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:11 PM 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Precip on the doorstep at 3z...starts shortly after It would be way more fun for this to get going at 10pm as opposed to 3am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted Friday at 05:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:11 PM 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: I’m a big believer in the overrunning but not the coastal. The low usually jumps too far northeast and we miss out. We can get substantial backlash but only in like 1 out of every 5 B transfer set ups . The overrun hit is like 4+ out of every 5 When there's a good block our region behaves more like northern Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 05:14 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:14 PM The Varsity King has begun. I'm looking for a hold or just a tiny bump north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Friday at 05:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:16 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: The Varsity King has begun. I'm looking for a hold or just a moderate bump north Fixed (shameless imby-ism) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Friday at 05:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:16 PM WB 15Z NBM 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 05:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:18 PM FYI re NBM 20 minutes ago, MGorse said: The NBM is time lagged. If there is a notable pattern change in the guidance and even a trend then the NBM will take time to catch up. Closer in time, the NBM incorporates the high resolution guidance which can lead to a noticeable change in the output. More info about the NBM is available here: https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 05:26 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:26 PM Euro...boring. No changes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 05:28 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:28 PM So..slight stuff....s/w seems a hair and I mean a toe hair south. Same with confluence 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 05:30 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:30 PM I think I can pretty confidently say it won't make any huge moves...out to 66...snow just starting on the doorstep 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 05:32 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:32 PM Snowing pretty good at 9z. Temps plenty cold so far. JI, stop worrying. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Friday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:32 PM Just now, stormtracker said: Snowing pretty good at 9z. Temps plenty cold so far. JI, stop worrying. That's not the worry. Up my way and north are the worriers 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 05:32 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:32 PM Snowing moderately at 15z. Thermals not even close to worrisome so far. Nothing like GFS 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Friday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:33 PM Just now, Maestrobjwa said: That's not the worry. Up my way and north are the worriers It’s a teeny tiny bit norther but largely a hold 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 05:33 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:33 PM Good run, zero thermal issues. All snow on the Euro 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:34 PM Just now, stormtracker said: Snowing moderately at 15z. Thermals not even close to worrisome so far. Nothing like GFS DC would do better if you had slightly worse thermals honestly. You aren't getting the really hefty slug of QPF driven into the area near the warmer sector. Rates are a big part of the fun of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 05:36 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:36 PM 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: DC would do better if you had slightly worse thermals honestly. You aren't getting the really hefty slug of QPF driven into the area near the warmer sector. Rates are a big part of the fun of course. Nah, we're good where it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted Friday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:37 PM 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Good run, zero thermal issues. All snow on the Euro How is it looking for areas north west of Roanoke close to the WV boarder? Been riding that snow mix line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Friday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:37 PM Just now, stormtracker said: Nah, we're good where it is. no were not. We could easily take a 100 mile shift on euro and not have thermal issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:38 PM Richmond is over a foot 2 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Friday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:38 PM Just now, Ji said: no were not. We could easily take a 100 mile shift on euro and not have thermal issues He didn't say that we were in the best possible place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:39 PM Just now, Ji said: no were not. We could easily take a 100 mile shift on euro and not have thermal issues I mean even if the Euro looked like the GFS track wise, the euro is substantially colder aloft. There's a decent bit of wiggle room I'd bet for anyone DC N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted Friday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:39 PM 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Friday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:40 PM Still loving me some euro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Friday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:40 PM I’d love to see the Euro closing off the SW as it passes to our south. Run over run changes does show it slightly deeper which is good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Friday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:40 PM WB 12Z EURO basically held steady, a tick north in total precipitation on the north side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:40 PM The Brits like the souther track, but both are incrementally norther on the 12z runs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Friday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:41 PM 35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's refreshing to see the primary stay along the KY/TN line on a lot of the guidance now. That plus a robust 700 mb low passing to our south help us win in the snowfall department. Perfect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 05:41 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:41 PM 3 minutes ago, Ji said: no were not. We could easily take a 100 mile shift on euro and not have thermal issues Ok, when it does the inevitable 100 mile shift north, remember my statement and yours. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts