yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 FYI re NBM 20 minutes ago, MGorse said: The NBM is time lagged. If there is a notable pattern change in the guidance and even a trend then the NBM will take time to catch up. Closer in time, the NBM incorporates the high resolution guidance which can lead to a noticeable change in the output. More info about the NBM is available here: https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Euro...boring. No changes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 So..slight stuff....s/w seems a hair and I mean a toe hair south. Same with confluence 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 I think I can pretty confidently say it won't make any huge moves...out to 66...snow just starting on the doorstep 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Snowing pretty good at 9z. Temps plenty cold so far. JI, stop worrying. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, stormtracker said: Snowing pretty good at 9z. Temps plenty cold so far. JI, stop worrying. That's not the worry. Up my way and north are the worriers 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Snowing moderately at 15z. Thermals not even close to worrisome so far. Nothing like GFS 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: That's not the worry. Up my way and north are the worriers It’s a teeny tiny bit norther but largely a hold 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Good run, zero thermal issues. All snow on the Euro 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, stormtracker said: Snowing moderately at 15z. Thermals not even close to worrisome so far. Nothing like GFS DC would do better if you had slightly worse thermals honestly. You aren't getting the really hefty slug of QPF driven into the area near the warmer sector. Rates are a big part of the fun of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: DC would do better if you had slightly worse thermals honestly. You aren't getting the really hefty slug of QPF driven into the area near the warmer sector. Rates are a big part of the fun of course. Nah, we're good where it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Good run, zero thermal issues. All snow on the Euro How is it looking for areas north west of Roanoke close to the WV boarder? Been riding that snow mix line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, stormtracker said: Nah, we're good where it is. no were not. We could easily take a 100 mile shift on euro and not have thermal issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Richmond is over a foot 2 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Ji said: no were not. We could easily take a 100 mile shift on euro and not have thermal issues He didn't say that we were in the best possible place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Ji said: no were not. We could easily take a 100 mile shift on euro and not have thermal issues I mean even if the Euro looked like the GFS track wise, the euro is substantially colder aloft. There's a decent bit of wiggle room I'd bet for anyone DC N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Still loving me some euro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I’d love to see the Euro closing off the SW as it passes to our south. Run over run changes does show it slightly deeper which is good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 WB 12Z EURO basically held steady, a tick north in total precipitation on the north side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The Brits like the souther track, but both are incrementally norther on the 12z runs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's refreshing to see the primary stay along the KY/TN line on a lot of the guidance now. That plus a robust 700 mb low passing to our south help us win in the snowfall department. Perfect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Ji said: no were not. We could easily take a 100 mile shift on euro and not have thermal issues Ok, when it does the inevitable 100 mile shift north, remember my statement and yours. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, bncho said: He didn't say that we were in the best possible place. I'm glad somebody understood what I was saying. Do we really want to be in the best spot at 72 hours? I like where we are now because we're in the middle of the spray. Even so, I'd take the Euro in a heartbeat verbatim. Give me a solid warning criteria event vs gambling with sleet/dry slot issues. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Blend the GFS/CMC/EURO and we jack. 100% good where we sit right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Holy Fook the Euro....looking good for me here in Northern Neck of VA......but know this probably tics north the next 2 days...... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm glad somebody understood what I was saying. Do we really want to be in the best spot at 72 hours? I like where we are now because we're in the middle of the spray. Even so, I'd take the Euro in a heartbeat verbatim. Give me a solid warning criteria event vs gambling with sleet/dry slot issues. The Euro is about .45-.5 QPF for us with temps 24-25. That's a very nice event for us in metro DC. And yeah it gives us room for the inevitable creep northward between now and Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ok, when it does the inevitable 100 mile shift north, remember my statement and yours. ill take my chances with 1.30 of warmer liquid than .45 of colder 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kcones88 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, IronTy said: Still loving me some euro This doesn't account for sleet, does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm glad somebody understood what I was saying. Do we really want to be in the best spot at 72 hours? I like where we are now because we're in the middle of the spray. Even so, I'd take the Euro in a heartbeat verbatim. Give me a solid warning criteria event vs gambling with sleet/dry slot issues. Perfect, we want that right there where it is now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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