Kevin Reilly Posted Friday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:41 PM 1 minute ago, mattie g said: That ULL piece has really only become a focus in the last 36-48 hours or so. Not that it wasn't there before, but we're starting to see a real potential upside with that high-ratio fluff. We tend to finish well with that - whether with good rates and ratios or just a prolonging of precip to put a nice coating on the snow that's already fallen. That piece is key for northern parts of precipitation field because less qpf and higher ratios obviously means more accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Friday at 04:45 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:45 PM GEFS also shows a stronger tighter costal low formation on about half maybe more of the boxes. The OP split the difference of the few drier solutions but it's very very far from the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Friday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:47 PM WPC with Heavy Snow possible for NVA/MD/DC in their Day 3 graphic. 13 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Friday at 04:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:48 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Friday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:54 PM Would argue the counties in red are probably lining up for a winter storm watch at some point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:56 PM 12z UKIE nudged souther looks like 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:56 PM 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: WPC with Heavy Snow possible for NVA/MD/DC in their Day 3 graphic. They seem to think that CAD holds strong and keeps mixed precip to the south of DCA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 04:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:57 PM UKIE is cold. Entire state of VA is snow at 72. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Friday at 04:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:58 PM 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z UKIE nudged souther looks like Dang it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Friday at 04:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:59 PM 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: UKIE is cold. Entire state of VA is snow at 72. Not exactly what ya wanna see up here...shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Friday at 04:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:59 PM Improvement from 0z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 04:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:59 PM Ukie also has no wraparound snow at all like the other models have. After 81 it's done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 04:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:59 PM 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Friday at 04:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:59 PM Ukie better than 0z. Looks little just a slightly later onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Friday at 05:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:00 PM 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: UKIE is cold. Entire state of VA is snow at 72. QPF slightly higher vs 00z too. DC went from 0.45” to 0.55”. All snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Friday at 05:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:00 PM 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z UKIE nudged souther looks like It’s a little north. By like 25 miles or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Friday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:01 PM Good to see the southern ticks on the latest runs. Hope the euro holds. 15min til the most important run of our lives.... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Friday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:01 PM Just now, clskinsfan said: So warning level for most on GFS/GEM/ICON...almost down to advisory on Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:01 PM Crazy to say seeing how far south it is, but the UK nudged a bit north if anything. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:01 PM Its a Chill jackpot on the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:02 PM 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Friday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:03 PM 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Remember we only use 10-1 when it shows the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Friday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:04 PM 1 minute ago, yoda said: I don't think I've seen DC get less than 6 inches on a Kuchera snowfall map for any model in the last 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Friday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:04 PM 1 minute ago, yoda said: I can live with that...as long as the south trend as stopped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Friday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:05 PM It's refreshing to see the primary stay along the KY/TN line on a lot of the guidance now. That plus a robust 700 mb low passing to our south help us win in the snowfall department. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Friday at 05:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:06 PM Hope euro. Comes a lil northThis is usually when the last minute north ticks start. We have 48 hrs to make up ground. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Friday at 05:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:06 PM Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I can live with that...as long as the south trend as stopped. Gradient over Northern Delware is crazy, from Wilmington, DE to Dover,DE is night and day. 1.7 versus 7.7 Yikes ! Hope the UKIE is wrong for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Friday at 05:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:06 PM 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Definitely north of last night's. Last night really was a big move south lol. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Friday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:07 PM All 0z runs tonight is your best bet to start trying to understand the final outcome. We are not quite there yet in my opinion and past experience following models and past set ups including this potential set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Friday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:08 PM Just now, Chris78 said: Definitely north of last night's. Last night really was a big move south lol. Yeah it looks good to me. 78 hr panel has a classic look to it, developing coastal and a band of snow right over us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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