The January 5/6 Thing

[clskinsfan]

DCA jack on the Canadian.

[jaydreb]

Let’s blend the EURO, GFS and CMC and lock it up.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

DCA jack on the Canadian.

10-12" here the last 2 runs. Love the Canadians.

[nj2va]

12z Canadian

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

12z Canadian

Oof!  I’m in

[Eskimo Joe]

12z GFS appears to be an inch of liquid equivalent for most of us.

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

My wag at GFS sounding analysis for immediate 495 area is that 12z Monday is probably snow with heavy rates and a tiny layer at freezing more or less.  18z is probably sleet with lighter rates and a wider warm layer.  Reminder that as we get closer, NAM and Euro profiles will be more accurate for assessing p-types.

 

p.s.:  we all should be rooting HARD for that ULL/CCB snow area to verify/intensify/biggify.  Soundings for that are gorgeous.  That is some 12-15:1 champagne powder on the GFS.  

Sounds like a thump to dry slot / light precip and then back to powder. Although I'd prefer an all snow event through and through, that scenario is more than acceptable.

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

What a sweet south trend. Just need to keeps the ticks tickin 

How do you like me now? Hahahaha

Tell me again please where you moved to and did you keep property around here ?

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

12z Canadian

That is a bit south of 0z though...for us Baltimore north folks we're sweating it (the rest of you shouldn't have to though)

[LeesburgWx]

So often we lose steam heading into a storm. This baby just keeps juicing up on the way in. Models appear to finally be 'agreeing' now. Let's get the euro to move north just a bit from 06z and lock this in.

[yoda]

Reminder before it gets asked - WSWatches are only issued up to 48 hours in advance.  So... we shouldn't expect to see one until tomorrow morning

[87storms]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Tell me again please where you moved to and did you keep property around here ?

He responded to you in banter.

[Ravens94]

Unlike the euro the GFS is just waffling at this point. Curious to ukie and euro has to come back some

[DDweatherman]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

So often we lose steam heading into a storm. This baby just keeps juicing up on the way in. Models appear to finally be 'agreeing' now. Let's get the euro to move north just a bit from 06z and lock this in.

Summary of the 12z suite 

ICON - slightly south of 6z, 6"+ S PA to NoVA

GFS - carbon copy of 6z but wetter for jackpot zone, DC to M/D line

GGEM - Slightly south of 0z, 6"+ S PA to PWC. 

RGEM - Slightly north of 6z, 6" line at the M/D and south

[WEATHER53]

Just now, 87storms said:

He responded to you in banter.

Ok and thanks 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Reminder before it gets asked - WSWatches are only issued up to 48 hours in advance.  So... we shouldn't expect to see one until tomorrow morning

Yeah I'd expect the overnight shift tonight to issue them for most if not all LWX area and probably PHL too

[nw baltimore wx]

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Tell me again please where you moved to and did you keep property around here ?

I re posted his response to you in the banter thread.

[WEATHER53]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

I re posted his response to you in the banter thread.

Hey thank you 

[Maestrobjwa]

25 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Unless the euro runs of late are right 

That's what worries me. It's so far south that my yard is on the lower end as well as north if me...and we've been fringed several times the last 9 years. That's why I'm mentally preparing for a just a low low-end warning or advisory event until we see just how far south the euro is gonna go (I do wonder where the goal post is there) and if other guidance caves to it (so far the rest of the 12z suite hasn't caved though )

[JenkinsJinkies]

Less than 3 days out and no collapse or significant walk back.

[clskinsfan]

Gefs mean

[Ravens94]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Gefs mean

I was just about to say the individuals look really good

[dukeblue219]

32 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Idk man. CWG just posted on X that an ice storm is coming. Stay safe. 

It's an awful headline from what should be a respectable source. It's not a forecast piece, it's a general purpose "what is an ice storm" article. The timing is rotten or needed a better headline.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Gefs mean

That southern gradient of snow totals suggests the mix line bisecting DC at its northernmost extent, but staying south for the most part. 

[mattie g]

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

DCA jack on the Canadian.

 

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

10-12" here the last 2 runs. Love the Canadians.

A line of latitude from Fredericksburg to Baltimore has pretty much been in the bullseye (with wobbles being accounted for). It's really not changed much, so this stripe of heaviest precip makes sense. CMC has been striping MBY pretty good, so I love seeing the consistency continue into this suite.

We'll see some more adjustments between now and gametime, but at this point I'd be really surprised if Winchester/DC/Baltimore missed out on the goodest of goods (hopefully I don't eat those words). I know I've said this before, but I have a feeling that someone near the Mason Dixon or around Fredericksburg will be a little disappointed simply because of the relatively narrow stripe of higher totals.

[JenkinsJinkies]

15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That is a bit south of 0z though...for us Baltimore north folks we're sweating it (the rest of you shouldn't have to though)

Based off that map I’d be getting slightly more snow than PSU

[SnowenOutThere]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

My wag at GFS sounding analysis for immediate 495 area is that 12z Monday is probably snow with heavy rates and a tiny layer at freezing more or less.  18z is probably sleet with lighter rates and a wider warm layer.  Reminder that as we get closer, NAM and Euro profiles will be more accurate for assessing p-types.

 

p.s.:  we all should be rooting HARD for that ULL/CCB snow area to verify/intensify/biggify.  Soundings for that are gorgeous.  That is some 12-15:1 champagne powder on the GFS.  

Is there any great way to tell a sounding between borderline sleet and snow? I know roughly that 600 feet plus of warm nose is where trouble happens but hard to tell if thats on the sounding maps. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

Based off that map I’d be getting slightly more snow than PSU

Well yeah that map is fantastic! What worries me is the Euro runs. Those got Baltimore north to like 4 inches maybe. Yeah it's a bit of an outlier but there's still tine for other guidance to bleed that way, smh Hopefully 12z euro is better.

[mattie g]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

My wag at GFS sounding analysis for immediate 495 area is that 12z Monday is probably snow with heavy rates and a tiny layer at freezing more or less.  18z is probably sleet with lighter rates and a wider warm layer.  Reminder that as we get closer, NAM and Euro profiles will be more accurate for assessing p-types.

 

p.s.:  we all should be rooting HARD for that ULL/CCB snow area to verify/intensify/biggify.  Soundings for that are gorgeous.  That is some 12-15:1 champagne powder on the GFS.  

That ULL piece has really only become a focus in the last 36-48 hours or so. Not that it wasn't there before, but we're starting to see a real potential upside with that high-ratio fluff. We tend to finish well with that - whether with good rates and ratios or just a prolonging of precip to put a nice coating on the snow that's already fallen.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Is there any great way to tell a sounding between borderline sleet and snow? I know roughly that 600 feet plus of warm nose is where trouble happens but hard to tell if thats on the sounding maps. 

if the temp straddles the 0C line on the sounding, but doesn't nose to the right of it, it's snow. But if we see an obvious nose to the right of 0C for about 500+ feet, it's sleet or freezing rain depending on how thick the surface cold layer is.