The January 5/6 Thing

[MN Transplant]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Still going at 1am Tuesday with a burst of moderate snow centered right over DC and Loudon

Verbatim, I get more from the evening thump than the WAA.

[clskinsfan]

Its going to be a foot out here. Like the Euro and everything else. 

[snowfan]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah baby, living dangerously and on the edge.  We gotta get close to get the goods in DC metro.   We're prob gonna sleet at some point lowlanders, accept it.

Idk man. CWG just posted on X that an ice storm is coming. Stay safe. 

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah baby, living dangerously and on the edge.  We gotta get close to get the goods in DC metro.   We're prob gonna sleet at some point lowlanders, accept it.

WSWarning criteria is my goal.  Anything more is gravy 

[weathercoins]

Someone is going to jackpot big here

 

[mitchnick]

Gfs loses the lobe over Maine for the most part this run.

[rjvanals]

Let's see what the Varsity Canadian shows 

[high risk]

Friendly reminder that any "total snowfall" maps will accumulate sleet as snow.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This is close, but still snow.

I think that WB algorithm might be off.  It seems sensitive as hell with p-types

[Amped]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

No

Looks more like the ICON. Most snow for I70, even with sleet and a dryslot.

[DDweatherman]

That GFS run was a beauty, great h5 pass for ULL backside snows and a juicy WAA slug for most. Pretty decent thermals DC and north to. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah baby, living dangerously and on the edge.  We gotta get close to get the goods in DC metro.   We're prob gonna sleet at some point lowlanders, accept it.

Unless the euro runs of late are right 

[Shad]

you guys are going to like the Canadian as well.....

[nj2va]

That back-end ULL snow through DC is a thing of beaut.  Basically a two part storm…WAA snow —> sleet —> snizzle —> snow. More snow for DC on the back-end.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Shad said:

you guys are going to like the Canadian as well.....

This looks south a fair bit of the last iteration if I'm being honest. I'm sure DC folk will like it. 

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs loses the lobe over Maine for the most part this run.

That part is going to be very fickle and likely won't be resolved until right up to game time.

[yoda]

Snow comes in hot and heavy around 2am Monday DC metro on 12z CMC 

[WVclimo]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Its going to be a foot out here. Like the Euro and everything else. 

I dunno, man.  The last couple runs of the Euro have given my yard 3”.  I’m hoping to see the 12Z come more into line with the rest of the suite this morning.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Snow comes in hot and heavy around 2am Monday DC metro on 12z CMC 

All snow through 78

[stormtracker]

CMC looks good so far

[87storms]

I work with a former operational met in the aviation industry and his thoughts (right before me seeing the pbp here) are that we're dealing with a southern/colder euro vs northern/warmer gfs, but seems to lean towards a colder (given the time of year), more north solution (given that it's a west to east system, so it could lift further north than depicted).  He reiterated it'll come down to the direction of the 850mb temp advection.  If we were in the office, I'd try to get more details lol.

And just looked at the latest GFS.  I sign.

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs loses the lobe over Maine for the most part this run.

Looks like it opens the door at the last minute for a climb northeast classic look

[stormtracker]

Nice burst of heavy snow on the way out around 7pm Monday

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That part is going to be very fickle and likely won't be resolved until right up to game time.

Good luck making a snowfall forecast! I mean if it's gonna be the difference between 3-6 and mixing or a foot for the southern part of our forum, or the difference of a foot or 3-4 inches for my yard and north.....man what do you even call there?

[yoda]

12z CMC all snow for DC metro 

[clskinsfan]

Canadian is beautiful. Pummeled.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, yoda said:

12z CMC all snow for DC metro 

Hourly frames definitely seemed south of 0z, maybe by a fair bit? I'd bet it shows 4-5" up for PSU land and MBY without seeing the good maps. 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs loses the lobe over Maine for the most part this run.

It's there, but gets stretched into a vorticity ribbon as a strong jet streak moves overhead.

[jayyy]

Good luck making a snowfall forecast! I mean if it's gonna be the difference between 3-6 and mixing or a foot for the southern part of our forum, or the difference of a foot or 3-4 inches for my yard and north.....man what do you even call there?

4-8” from dc to the md/pa line with jackpot amounts up to 12” if you’re putting out an early forecast. But yeah, pinpointing the jackpot zone will be tough.

[WxUSAF]

My wag at GFS sounding analysis for immediate 495 area is that 12z Monday is probably snow with heavy rates and a tiny layer at freezing more or less.  18z is probably sleet with lighter rates and a wider warm layer.  Reminder that as we get closer, NAM and Euro profiles will be more accurate for assessing p-types.

 

p.s.:  we all should be rooting HARD for that ULL/CCB snow area to verify/intensify/biggify.  Soundings for that are gorgeous.  That is some 12-15:1 champagne powder on the GFS.