WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: What a sweet south trend. Just need to keeps the ticks tickin How do you like me now? Hahahaha Tell me again please where you moved to and did you keep property around here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: 12z Canadian That is a bit south of 0z though...for us Baltimore north folks we're sweating it (the rest of you shouldn't have to though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 So often we lose steam heading into a storm. This baby just keeps juicing up on the way in. Models appear to finally be 'agreeing' now. Let's get the euro to move north just a bit from 06z and lock this in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Reminder before it gets asked - WSWatches are only issued up to 48 hours in advance. So... we shouldn't expect to see one until tomorrow morning 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: Tell me again please where you moved to and did you keep property around here ? He responded to you in banter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Unlike the euro the GFS is just waffling at this point. Curious to ukie and euro has to come back some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, LeesburgWx said: So often we lose steam heading into a storm. This baby just keeps juicing up on the way in. Models appear to finally be 'agreeing' now. Let's get the euro to move north just a bit from 06z and lock this in. Summary of the 12z suite ICON - slightly south of 6z, 6"+ S PA to NoVA GFS - carbon copy of 6z but wetter for jackpot zone, DC to M/D line GGEM - Slightly south of 0z, 6"+ S PA to PWC. RGEM - Slightly north of 6z, 6" line at the M/D and south 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, 87storms said: He responded to you in banter. Ok and thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Reminder before it gets asked - WSWatches are only issued up to 48 hours in advance. So... we shouldn't expect to see one until tomorrow morning Yeah I'd expect the overnight shift tonight to issue them for most if not all LWX area and probably PHL too 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Tell me again please where you moved to and did you keep property around here ? I re posted his response to you in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: I re posted his response to you in the banter thread. Hey thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 25 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Unless the euro runs of late are right That's what worries me. It's so far south that my yard is on the lower end as well as north if me...and we've been fringed several times the last 9 years. That's why I'm mentally preparing for a just a low low-end warning or advisory event until we see just how far south the euro is gonna go (I do wonder where the goal post is there) and if other guidance caves to it (so far the rest of the 12z suite hasn't caved though ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Less than 3 days out and no collapse or significant walk back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Gefs mean 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Gefs mean I was just about to say the individuals look really good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 32 minutes ago, snowfan said: Idk man. CWG just posted on X that an ice storm is coming. Stay safe. It's an awful headline from what should be a respectable source. It's not a forecast piece, it's a general purpose "what is an ice storm" article. The timing is rotten or needed a better headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Gefs mean That southern gradient of snow totals suggests the mix line bisecting DC at its northernmost extent, but staying south for the most part. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: DCA jack on the Canadian. 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: 10-12" here the last 2 runs. Love the Canadians. A line of latitude from Fredericksburg to Baltimore has pretty much been in the bullseye (with wobbles being accounted for). It's really not changed much, so this stripe of heaviest precip makes sense. CMC has been striping MBY pretty good, so I love seeing the consistency continue into this suite. We'll see some more adjustments between now and gametime, but at this point I'd be really surprised if Winchester/DC/Baltimore missed out on the goodest of goods (hopefully I don't eat those words). I know I've said this before, but I have a feeling that someone near the Mason Dixon or around Fredericksburg will be a little disappointed simply because of the relatively narrow stripe of higher totals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That is a bit south of 0z though...for us Baltimore north folks we're sweating it (the rest of you shouldn't have to though) Based off that map I’d be getting slightly more snow than PSU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: My wag at GFS sounding analysis for immediate 495 area is that 12z Monday is probably snow with heavy rates and a tiny layer at freezing more or less. 18z is probably sleet with lighter rates and a wider warm layer. Reminder that as we get closer, NAM and Euro profiles will be more accurate for assessing p-types. p.s.: we all should be rooting HARD for that ULL/CCB snow area to verify/intensify/biggify. Soundings for that are gorgeous. That is some 12-15:1 champagne powder on the GFS. Is there any great way to tell a sounding between borderline sleet and snow? I know roughly that 600 feet plus of warm nose is where trouble happens but hard to tell if thats on the sounding maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, JenkinsJinkies said: Based off that map I’d be getting slightly more snow than PSU Well yeah that map is fantastic! What worries me is the Euro runs. Those got Baltimore north to like 4 inches maybe. Yeah it's a bit of an outlier but there's still tine for other guidance to bleed that way, smh Hopefully 12z euro is better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: My wag at GFS sounding analysis for immediate 495 area is that 12z Monday is probably snow with heavy rates and a tiny layer at freezing more or less. 18z is probably sleet with lighter rates and a wider warm layer. Reminder that as we get closer, NAM and Euro profiles will be more accurate for assessing p-types. p.s.: we all should be rooting HARD for that ULL/CCB snow area to verify/intensify/biggify. Soundings for that are gorgeous. That is some 12-15:1 champagne powder on the GFS. That ULL piece has really only become a focus in the last 36-48 hours or so. Not that it wasn't there before, but we're starting to see a real potential upside with that high-ratio fluff. We tend to finish well with that - whether with good rates and ratios or just a prolonging of precip to put a nice coating on the snow that's already fallen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Is there any great way to tell a sounding between borderline sleet and snow? I know roughly that 600 feet plus of warm nose is where trouble happens but hard to tell if thats on the sounding maps. if the temp straddles the 0C line on the sounding, but doesn't nose to the right of it, it's snow. But if we see an obvious nose to the right of 0C for about 500+ feet, it's sleet or freezing rain depending on how thick the surface cold layer is. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, mattie g said: That ULL piece has really only become a focus in the last 36-48 hours or so. Not that it wasn't there before, but we're starting to see a real potential upside with that high-ratio fluff. We tend to finish well with that - whether with good rates and ratios or just a prolonging of precip to put a nice coating on the snow that's already fallen. That piece is key for northern parts of precipitation field because less qpf and higher ratios obviously means more accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GEFS also shows a stronger tighter costal low formation on about half maybe more of the boxes. The OP split the difference of the few drier solutions but it's very very far from the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 WPC with Heavy Snow possible for NVA/MD/DC in their Day 3 graphic. 13 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Would argue the counties in red are probably lining up for a winter storm watch at some point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12z UKIE nudged souther looks like 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: WPC with Heavy Snow possible for NVA/MD/DC in their Day 3 graphic. They seem to think that CAD holds strong and keeps mixed precip to the south of DCA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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