high risk Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Friendly reminder that any "total snowfall" maps will accumulate sleet as snow. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: This is close, but still snow. I think that WB algorithm might be off. It seems sensitive as hell with p-types Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: No Looks more like the ICON. Most snow for I70, even with sleet and a dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 That GFS run was a beauty, great h5 pass for ULL backside snows and a juicy WAA slug for most. Pretty decent thermals DC and north to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah baby, living dangerously and on the edge. We gotta get close to get the goods in DC metro. We're prob gonna sleet at some point lowlanders, accept it. Unless the euro runs of late are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 you guys are going to like the Canadian as well..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 That back-end ULL snow through DC is a thing of beaut. Basically a two part storm…WAA snow —> sleet —> snizzle —> snow. More snow for DC on the back-end. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Shad said: you guys are going to like the Canadian as well..... This looks south a fair bit of the last iteration if I'm being honest. I'm sure DC folk will like it. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs loses the lobe over Maine for the most part this run. That part is going to be very fickle and likely won't be resolved until right up to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Snow comes in hot and heavy around 2am Monday DC metro on 12z CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Its going to be a foot out here. Like the Euro and everything else. I dunno, man. The last couple runs of the Euro have given my yard 3”. I’m hoping to see the 12Z come more into line with the rest of the suite this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, yoda said: Snow comes in hot and heavy around 2am Monday DC metro on 12z CMC All snow through 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 CMC looks good so far 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I work with a former operational met in the aviation industry and his thoughts (right before me seeing the pbp here) are that we're dealing with a southern/colder euro vs northern/warmer gfs, but seems to lean towards a colder (given the time of year), more north solution (given that it's a west to east system, so it could lift further north than depicted). He reiterated it'll come down to the direction of the 850mb temp advection. If we were in the office, I'd try to get more details lol. And just looked at the latest GFS. I sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs loses the lobe over Maine for the most part this run. Looks like it opens the door at the last minute for a climb northeast classic look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Nice burst of heavy snow on the way out around 7pm Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: That part is going to be very fickle and likely won't be resolved until right up to game time. Good luck making a snowfall forecast! I mean if it's gonna be the difference between 3-6 and mixing or a foot for the southern part of our forum, or the difference of a foot or 3-4 inches for my yard and north.....man what do you even call there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12z CMC all snow for DC metro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Canadian is beautiful. Pummeled. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, yoda said: 12z CMC all snow for DC metro Hourly frames definitely seemed south of 0z, maybe by a fair bit? I'd bet it shows 4-5" up for PSU land and MBY without seeing the good maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs loses the lobe over Maine for the most part this run. It's there, but gets stretched into a vorticity ribbon as a strong jet streak moves overhead. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Good luck making a snowfall forecast! I mean if it's gonna be the difference between 3-6 and mixing or a foot for the southern part of our forum, or the difference of a foot or 3-4 inches for my yard and north.....man what do you even call there?4-8” from dc to the md/pa line with jackpot amounts up to 12” if you’re putting out an early forecast. But yeah, pinpointing the jackpot zone will be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 My wag at GFS sounding analysis for immediate 495 area is that 12z Monday is probably snow with heavy rates and a tiny layer at freezing more or less. 18z is probably sleet with lighter rates and a wider warm layer. Reminder that as we get closer, NAM and Euro profiles will be more accurate for assessing p-types. p.s.: we all should be rooting HARD for that ULL/CCB snow area to verify/intensify/biggify. Soundings for that are gorgeous. That is some 12-15:1 champagne powder on the GFS. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 DCA jack on the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Let’s blend the EURO, GFS and CMC and lock it up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: DCA jack on the Canadian. 10-12" here the last 2 runs. Love the Canadians. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12z Canadian 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, nj2va said: 12z Canadian Oof! I’m in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12z GFS appears to be an inch of liquid equivalent for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: My wag at GFS sounding analysis for immediate 495 area is that 12z Monday is probably snow with heavy rates and a tiny layer at freezing more or less. 18z is probably sleet with lighter rates and a wider warm layer. Reminder that as we get closer, NAM and Euro profiles will be more accurate for assessing p-types. p.s.: we all should be rooting HARD for that ULL/CCB snow area to verify/intensify/biggify. Soundings for that are gorgeous. That is some 12-15:1 champagne powder on the GFS. Sounds like a thump to dry slot / light precip and then back to powder. Although I'd prefer an all snow event through and through, that scenario is more than acceptable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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