DDweatherman Posted Friday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:46 PM Plenty of good fronto around as the WAA slug moves in for us, there would be some really solid rates here. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted Friday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:47 PM Just now, Chris78 said: I was just going to post this. Definitely thinner than the other models. Good luck nailing that down 3 days out lol The warmer temps shaves off snow totals on the south side hence the smaller stripe. It’s just icier is all 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Friday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:47 PM Almost everyone gets frozen precip on the NAM then we get it to stick around. Nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:47 PM Just now, mitchnick said: It's a good run for most, but there is a shift south fromn6z. This is total snowfall thru 78hrs on 12z vs 84hrs on 6z. Admittedly, I'm focused on the north side. But there is more to the storm after end of run which may compensate. Thats the EPS mitch, NAM didn't do much southing, more so tightened up the QPF distro gradient. Would be some nice high ratio snow post h84 for us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted Friday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:48 PM Not much point in looking into NAM details outside of 48 hrs for those new here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:48 PM Just now, DDweatherman said: Thats the EPS mitch, NAM didn't do much southing, more so tightened up the QPF distro gradient. Would be some nice high ratio snow post h84 for us as well. Fixed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Friday at 02:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:49 PM 1 minute ago, Shad said: Not much point in looking into NAM details outside of 48 hrs for those new here Don’t worry we’re gonna talk about the icon in 20 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 02:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:50 PM With the potency of this one and the moisture advection, it's becoming pretty clear if someone can get in the core WAA slug and then get additional snow from the backside, there's going to be double digit totals and some 12" amounts to be found. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted Friday at 02:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:50 PM 1 minute ago, Shad said: Not much point in looking into NAM details outside of 4.8 hrs for those new here Corrected. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Friday at 02:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:50 PM 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's a good run for most, but there is a shift south from 6z. This is total snowfall thru 78hrs on 12z vs 84hrs on 6z. Admittedly, I'm focused on the north side. But there is more to the storm after end of run which may compensate. Probably another 6 to 12 hours of snow after the run ends. Someone is going to end up with over 1'. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted Friday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:51 PM NAM and GFS both have a closed 500 low over WV still by Monday evening. More robust precipitation on the backside with this than what the Euro has. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Friday at 02:53 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:53 PM 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's a good run for most, but there is a shift south from 6z. This is total snowfall thru 78hrs on 12z vs 84hrs on 6z. Admittedly, I'm focused on the north side. But there is more to the storm after end of run which may compensate. I'm sure the storm keep going after hour 84. So we could add to those amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted Friday at 02:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:55 PM 8 minutes ago, Interstate said: It is crazy that the width of heavy snow is about 80 miles wide. That’s mainly because it looks like the NAM is saying this is a sleet storm for most who have been expecting a snow storm. Could be plausible given indications of a warm layer above even in the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Friday at 02:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:55 PM 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: NAM and GFS both have a closed 500 low over WV still by Monday evening. More robust precipitation on the backside with this than what the Euro has. I was just going to post that…there’d be several inches+ still to come with this look. But its the NAM yadda yadda. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 02:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:57 PM Just now, nj2va said: I was just going to post that…there’d be several inches+ still to come with this look. But its the NAM yadda yadda. It's a pretty stacked vort through the levels. That's almost an ideal location too. Other models have shown something similar, euro is quicker with moving it through but does have a potent vort as well, just not quite as slow or amped and a bit south. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Friday at 02:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:57 PM When you see a closed 700mb low swinging by near or just to the south of you, expect a last minute surprise. Someone could jackpot decently from this. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted Friday at 02:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:58 PM 11 minutes ago, H2O said: NAM usually a cold model up and down the column. But not putting a ton of stock in thermals at this range. If it can stay at or under 0C then rates can help It's frigid at 750 and we just barely lose the column at 850 at hour 81 while the surface stays cold. Looks like we'd snizzle at that point and then go back to snow after the coastal takes over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted Friday at 03:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:01 PM 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: I was just going to post that…there’d be several inches+ still to come with this look. But its the NAM yadda yadda. That vort stays south and it could bring some really heavy, fluffy snows with it on the backside. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted Friday at 03:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:01 PM 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I was just going to post that…there’d be several inches+ still to come with this look. But its the NAM yadda yadda. Looking back at the 06z GFS, it is a two-part storm in N Virginia. 3-5” while flirting with the mix on the front and then a 4-6” thump on the back. We can derive a realistic best and worst case scenario for DC. Best case is that the front end thump is robust and we get the GFS/NAM solution on the back, which could mean 12”+. Worst is that the front end is drier/warmer than we want, and then we get the Euro scenario with nothing on the backside (2-4” frozen). 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Friday at 03:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:02 PM Just now, MN Transplant said: Looking back at the 06z GFS, it is a two-part storm in N Virginia. 3-5” while flirting with the mix on the front and then a 4-6” thump on the back. We can derive a realistic best and worst case scenario for DC. Best case is that the front end thump is robust and we get the GFS/NAM solution on the back, which could mean 12”+. Worst is that the front end is drier/warmer than we want, and then we get the Euro scenario with nothing on the backside (2-4” frozen). Definitely. Thump, snizzle, then coastal is the best path forward for us close in burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 03:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:04 PM 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Definitely. Thump, snizzle, then coastal is the best path forward for us close in burbs. Stronger vort + stronger confluence will get that done for us 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted Friday at 03:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:05 PM 12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: NAM and GFS both have a closed 500 low over WV still by Monday evening. More robust precipitation on the backside with this than what the Euro has. But also more potential to drag warm air north for mixing with the warm advection especially as rates fall off. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:06 PM Just now, usedtobe said: But also more potential to drag warm air north for mixing with the warm advection especially as rates fall off. Good to see you here. I hope the south shift is correct and you get snow, too! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted Friday at 03:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:08 PM ICON looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 03:09 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:09 PM Mod to heavy snow across the region 12z Mon on at 72 on 12z icon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Friday at 03:10 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:10 PM Low might be a tickle south on the ICON, for those who celebrate. Regardless, good snows falling for most by 12Z Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted Friday at 03:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:11 PM ICON is a bit south of it's 6z Run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Friday at 03:12 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:12 PM Not as strong at H5 as some others, but a great pass through southern VA on the ICON. A tad slower than 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Friday at 03:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:13 PM You can call it a trend at this point, but works for lots of folks here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:15 PM Deutschland Deutschland Uber alles! 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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