DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 With the potency of this one and the moisture advection, it's becoming pretty clear if someone can get in the core WAA slug and then get additional snow from the backside, there's going to be double digit totals and some 12" amounts to be found. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Shad said: Not much point in looking into NAM details outside of 4.8 hrs for those new here Corrected. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's a good run for most, but there is a shift south from 6z. This is total snowfall thru 78hrs on 12z vs 84hrs on 6z. Admittedly, I'm focused on the north side. But there is more to the storm after end of run which may compensate. Probably another 6 to 12 hours of snow after the run ends. Someone is going to end up with over 1'. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 NAM and GFS both have a closed 500 low over WV still by Monday evening. More robust precipitation on the backside with this than what the Euro has. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's a good run for most, but there is a shift south from 6z. This is total snowfall thru 78hrs on 12z vs 84hrs on 6z. Admittedly, I'm focused on the north side. But there is more to the storm after end of run which may compensate. I'm sure the storm keep going after hour 84. So we could add to those amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, Interstate said: It is crazy that the width of heavy snow is about 80 miles wide. That’s mainly because it looks like the NAM is saying this is a sleet storm for most who have been expecting a snow storm. Could be plausible given indications of a warm layer above even in the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: NAM and GFS both have a closed 500 low over WV still by Monday evening. More robust precipitation on the backside with this than what the Euro has. I was just going to post that…there’d be several inches+ still to come with this look. But its the NAM yadda yadda. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, nj2va said: I was just going to post that…there’d be several inches+ still to come with this look. But its the NAM yadda yadda. It's a pretty stacked vort through the levels. That's almost an ideal location too. Other models have shown something similar, euro is quicker with moving it through but does have a potent vort as well, just not quite as slow or amped and a bit south. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 When you see a closed 700mb low swinging by near or just to the south of you, expect a last minute surprise. Someone could jackpot decently from this. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 minutes ago, H2O said: NAM usually a cold model up and down the column. But not putting a ton of stock in thermals at this range. If it can stay at or under 0C then rates can help It's frigid at 750 and we just barely lose the column at 850 at hour 81 while the surface stays cold. Looks like we'd snizzle at that point and then go back to snow after the coastal takes over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: I was just going to post that…there’d be several inches+ still to come with this look. But its the NAM yadda yadda. That vort stays south and it could bring some really heavy, fluffy snows with it on the backside. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I was just going to post that…there’d be several inches+ still to come with this look. But its the NAM yadda yadda. Looking back at the 06z GFS, it is a two-part storm in N Virginia. 3-5” while flirting with the mix on the front and then a 4-6” thump on the back. We can derive a realistic best and worst case scenario for DC. Best case is that the front end thump is robust and we get the GFS/NAM solution on the back, which could mean 12”+. Worst is that the front end is drier/warmer than we want, and then we get the Euro scenario with nothing on the backside (2-4” frozen). 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, MN Transplant said: Looking back at the 06z GFS, it is a two-part storm in N Virginia. 3-5” while flirting with the mix on the front and then a 4-6” thump on the back. We can derive a realistic best and worst case scenario for DC. Best case is that the front end thump is robust and we get the GFS/NAM solution on the back, which could mean 12”+. Worst is that the front end is drier/warmer than we want, and then we get the Euro scenario with nothing on the backside (2-4” frozen). Definitely. Thump, snizzle, then coastal is the best path forward for us close in burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Definitely. Thump, snizzle, then coastal is the best path forward for us close in burbs. Stronger vort + stronger confluence will get that done for us 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: NAM and GFS both have a closed 500 low over WV still by Monday evening. More robust precipitation on the backside with this than what the Euro has. But also more potential to drag warm air north for mixing with the warm advection especially as rates fall off. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, usedtobe said: But also more potential to drag warm air north for mixing with the warm advection especially as rates fall off. Good to see you here. I hope the south shift is correct and you get snow, too! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 ICON looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Mod to heavy snow across the region 12z Mon on at 72 on 12z icon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Low might be a tickle south on the ICON, for those who celebrate. Regardless, good snows falling for most by 12Z Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 ICON is a bit south of it's 6z Run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Not as strong at H5 as some others, but a great pass through southern VA on the ICON. A tad slower than 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 You can call it a trend at this point, but works for lots of folks here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Deutschland Deutschland Uber alles! 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: You can call it a trend at this point, but works for lots of folks here. It can stop now. Also, too bad it's the iCON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It looks like a very wet run as well. This would be a lot of sleet south of the immediate DC suburbs, and significant ice in Central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 ICON is maybe a slight south but overall, works for most and looks very similar to 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AACOUNTYMD Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 i was lurking on another forum- if the high is stronger coming out of the Tennessee Valley, will that bring up warmer-ish air and more moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, usedtobe said: But also more potential to drag warm air north for mixing with the warm advection especially as rates fall off. It's great to see you Wes. Thank you for gracing us with your presence. Whenever i see you posting i know a big storm is coming. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 RGEM long range looks good for this storm also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, rjvanals said: RGEM long range looks good for this storm also And ticked north a tad. Noise, but still. **edit to end of run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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