Bob Chill Posted Friday at 01:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:51 PM What a sweet south trend. Just need to keeps the ticks tickin How do you like me now? Hahahaha 6 13 1 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 01:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:56 PM 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: With that new feature showing up in NE threatening to push everything south, though...wouldn't we want more amped to fight that more? Its not a new feature, but the exact timing and location of it varies from run to run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Friday at 01:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:56 PM 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: Nice run WB 6Z GFS! The funny part is that the storm is almost split in two around the DC area with roughly half of the snowfall from the WAA and half from the coastal. Not sure I would really want to bet on the coastal giving that much but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Friday at 02:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:00 PM 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: The funny part is that the storm is almost split in two around the DC area with roughly half of the snowfall from the WAA and half from the coastal. Not sure I would really want to bet on the coastal giving that much but who knows. Bet on anything when there’s a snow drought 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 02:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:00 PM 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not sure the EPS is any more dispersive from its parent than the GEFS, especially at this range. That's the expectation at this range and and moving forward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Friday at 02:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:01 PM I see we had the ol' "fake rug pull from Euro" again. It'll nudge back north by 0z and GFS will nudge south. I've seen too many of these shows by now. How do you like that for sound science? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted Friday at 02:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:03 PM 53 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That’s what it always does. North crew panics, newbs down here spike the ball and we end up with lesser amounts/mixing and hill folk get slammed. That’s what it’s funny to me when both sides act surprised. I still think we got another day and a half of see-sawing. I look at it this way. Think of Star Wars when the targeting systems in the X-Wing fighter try to lock on to a target. It swings back and forth until it locks on. Both fighters are moving. Same with the models. A lot of things moving and the models are trying to lock onto a solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted Friday at 02:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:07 PM I'm not sure why there's so much talk of the models shifting so horribly. The swath of decent snow for this system is what...maybe 150 miles wide? Excepting the crazy GFS run last night, most are shifting like 25 miles north/south from run to run (so 50-ish miles total) and have been for days. That's incredible accuracy. People on the fringes may think otherwise (and it's easy for me to say this because I'm squarely in the goalposts), but in reality the models have been pretty amazing on this. 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Friday at 02:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:11 PM Day 3 of saying this, buuuut a split between the euro / gfs is a good bet at this juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 02:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:11 PM 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm not sure why there's so much talk of the models shifting so horribly. The swath of decent snow for this system is what...maybe 150 miles wide? Excepting the crazy GFS run last night, most are shifting like 25 miles north/south from run to run (so 50-ish miles total) and have been for days. That's incredible accuracy. People on the fringes may think otherwise (and it's easy for me to say this because I'm squarely in the goalposts), but in reality the models have been pretty amazing on this. 100% this. Getting a 150 mile swath of snowfall correct from 3-4 days out is the equivalent of netting a basketball from half court. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Friday at 02:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:13 PM 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm not sure why there's so much talk of the models shifting so horribly. The swath of decent snow for this system is what...maybe 150 miles wide? Excepting the crazy GFS run last night, most are shifting like 25 miles north/south from run to run (so 50-ish miles total) and have been for days. That's incredible accuracy. People on the fringes may think otherwise (and it's easy for me to say this because I'm squarely in the goalposts), but in reality the models have been pretty amazing on this. you new here? lol Its the mid-atlantic way! 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Friday at 02:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:13 PM Just now, Terpeast said: 100% this. Getting a 150 mile swath of snowfall correct from 3-4 days out is the equivalent of netting a basketball from half court. Hopefully the Euro is Steph Curry in this scenario and not *insert wizard player* 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted Friday at 02:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:14 PM 4 hours ago, yoda said: Zoomed in PW Kuchera 06z GFS God bless America. Euro must be out to lunch 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted Friday at 02:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:17 PM Initial snow forecast for January 5-6 (late Sunday into Monday). Favoring the cluster of more northern solutions overall, with some mixing issues showing up from D.C. southward (but not before a decent amount of snow). Euro's more southern track is certainly something to keep an eye on. Main concerns are with potential mixing in the southern areas cutting into totals, and sharpening up the northern gradient once there's better confidence in the track. 27 9 1 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 02:23 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:23 PM 5 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Initial snow forecast for January 5-6 (late Sunday into Monday). Favoring the cluster of more northern solutions overall, with some mixing issues showing up from D.C. southward (but not before a decent amount of snow). Euro's more southern track is certainly something to keep an eye on. Main concerns are with potential mixing in the southern areas cutting into totals, and sharpening up the northern gradient once there's better confidence in the track. Approved. You can stay. Honestly surprised at the bullish call. 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 02:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:24 PM 6 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Initial snow forecast for January 5-6 (late Sunday into Monday). Favoring the cluster of more northern solutions overall, with some mixing issues showing up from D.C. southward (but not before a decent amount of snow). Euro's more southern track is certainly something to keep an eye on. Main concerns are with potential mixing in the southern areas cutting into totals, and sharpening up the northern gradient once there's better confidence in the track. We need an "I Love You" emoji. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Friday at 02:25 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:25 PM 35 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: One thing about the 6z Euro being further south is it's quite cold. Starts around 27 in DC and drops to 23/24 during the heaviest precip then only 26/27 for the high. Very little snow would be wasted in that situation. I love events like that. What good is cold with out the snow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 02:25 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:25 PM Ok, so NAM running. Didn't see much talk of 6z...wasn't bad from what I could tell. Anyway, so far, a little more amp'd out front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Friday at 02:25 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:25 PM Nam is slower and trending slower out west with the LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 02:26 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:26 PM Just now, stormtracker said: Ok, so NAM running. Didn't see much talk of 6z...wasn't bad from what I could tell. Anyway, so far, a little more amp'd out front. It was a big run, 6z Nam that is. Had put a lot of snow down by the end of the run with a fair bit more to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted Friday at 02:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:27 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Approved. You can stay. Honestly surprised at the bullish call. The extent of the southern blue is new territory for this storm. Usually he has the dreaded grey over my house and up to Capitol Hill. It’s a wide swath and a good call given the model shifts. hold me. It might be a good one for us 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 02:27 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:27 PM 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Is he a real met? Or a wishful thinker lol He's a met, because he has a....met tag. Normally conservative and pretty good. Long time member. 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 02:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:28 PM 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: Nam is slower and trending slower out west with the LP Very similar to 6z though. Height lines in east are dead on to 6z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Friday at 02:29 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:29 PM Wow, a 5 contour closed s/w at H54 on Pivotal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Friday at 02:29 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:29 PM Just now, mitchnick said: Very similar to 6z though. Height lines in east are dead on to 6z too. It's getting slower and slower but more amped in the Midwest same here tho for sure pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 02:30 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:30 PM 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Very similar to 6z though. Height lines in east are dead on to 6z too. Definitely a little dynamic s/w. Height lines are about the same..maybe a hair north. Would like to see the confluence a little more stout/souther on the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 02:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:31 PM That's a really impressive vort coming across the country on the 12z NAM. You're going to want to be in the meat of this thing when it hits. Definitely a bit less press from the NE influence thus far through 57h. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:33 PM Reminder just in case anyone forgot that nam bias is too wet (12k especially) and too amped. When NAM’s track agrees closely with the global guidance (18z tomorrow?), then using it for thermals/mixing/banding is the proper value-added use. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:35 PM 12z NAM sure is slow... barely snowing in VA at 06z Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Friday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:35 PM Nice squall line showing up on 12z run. Goes to show the dynamics at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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