The January 5/6 Thing

[IUsedToHateCold]

The models have been swingy in this one - but I do know it is going to snow. Maybe 3 inches. Maybe 13. I’m good 

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

The models have been swingy in this one - but I do know it is going to snow. Maybe 3 inches. Maybe 13. I’m good 

Must be new to the area lol. 

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, latest SREF snowfall did shift south, but did put DC/BWI area in the bullseye. Question remains "when does it stop?"

[winter_warlock]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, latest SREF snowfall did shift south, but did put DC/BWI area in the bullseye. Question remains "when does it stop?"

Link?

[Terpeast]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, latest SREF snowfall did shift south, but did put DC/BWI area in the bullseye. Question remains "when does it stop?"

Total hunch, i think it stops today 12z or 18z then once the system gets going east of the rockies, they tick back north

[vastateofmind]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

honestly, I'd laugh very hard if by Sunday night the storm missed most of the forum and we spent all this time tracking something we don't actually get. 

100% But upshots are 1. I learn more each season about the climatological nuts & bolts that put us in "thread the needle" mode around here, and 2) because of that accumulated knowledge, I refuse to rend my garments or gnash my teeth any longer if tracking a potential storm for days doesn't pan out...which is the rule rather than the exception here on the DMV southside.   

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Total hunch, i think it stops today 12z or 18z then once the system gets going east of the rockies, they tick back north

Hope so.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

The euro is a real blaring warning signal for us. This would be another galling miss up this way if it unfolds like this. 

Man for someone who moved to get more snow the last 5 years have got to have royally sucked...so sorry you haven't cashed in yet. I'd like to think that one of these years (perhaps this year ) you'll cash in. But I feel your fringed frustation...with these southern slider-like storms post 2016 I've had some fringe issues too, smh. Oy...let's hope this turns around again!

[mitchnick]

Sref

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025010309&fh=87&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Total hunch, i think it stops today 12z or 18z then once the system gets going east of the rockies, they tick back north

 

Just now, mitchnick said:

Hope so.

That’s what it always does. North crew panics, newbs down here spike the ball and we end up with lesser amounts/mixing and hill folk get slammed.  That’s what it’s funny to me when both sides act surprised. 
 

I still think we got another day and a half of see-sawing. 

[DDweatherman]

Really, if you look west of the apps and see the swath of high totals along I-70, that’s where you’d expect (at worst) to see them on our side. This only really hurts the north crew if the precip then moved south of east which isn’t very typical. 

I usually am on the late north trend crew but definitely noticed the somewhat newly sampled lobe of energy up north of New England that seems to be playing in this one. Good or bad day ahead lol

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

 

That’s what it always does. North crew panics, newbs down here spike the ball and we end up with lesser amounts/mixing and hill folk get slammed.  That’s what it’s funny to me when both sides act surprised. 
 

I still think we got another day and a half of see-sawing. 

You have the history right, but I've never seen an ocean storm like the one that's forecasted nor have seen modeling go from heavy snow, little or no snow, back to heavy snow, then back down to ___? So idk if we can rely on history as a good example for this one. Maybe and maybe not. Lol

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Usually in overunning situations like this where we are waiting for the system to actually develop guidance bounces all around. Once this gets going around Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon is when we should finally have some sort of realistic concensus. We are playing the windshield wiper game still with that heavier fronto band and we just can't know N , S , or center yet. 

This hobby lol-"We should know more 5 days out", "we should know more 3 days out", "we should know more 6 minutes out!!" Hahahaha

[Chris78]

This shows that Lobe above Maine perfectly. A 100 miles south shift on the lobe makes a big difference in what snow we see or don't see.

Moved south on the GFS also just not as much.

We need that to stop  trending south asap.

 

[Solution Man]

Keep an eye on snowfall totals in Kansas City and St. Louis, totals there tend to correlate with D.C. area totals, albeit a bit lower here. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

This shows that Lobe above Maine perfectly. A 100 miles south shift on the lobe makes a big difference in what snow we see or don't see.

Moved south on the GFS also just not as much.

We need that to stop  trending south asap.

 

This is giving me legit December 2018 vibes. There was a "lobe" of energy in NE that suppressed the whole thing down to NC, smh. Not saying to goes that far south, but if that energy tends stronger...oof.

[mdhokie]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

I remember in October November how the cfs kept insisting on a memorable January

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

Remember when the JMA nailed that big storm back in 09/10? Yea, blind squirrel..

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

This shows that Lobe above Maine perfectly. A 100 miles south shift on the lobe makes a big difference in what snow we see or don't see.

Moved south on the GFS also just not as much.

We need that to stop  trending south asap.

 

Yes. And when you look at it from a N. Atlantic view and put it in motion, you can see what a mess it will be figuring it out. Interestingly, if you go to the link below and use the slide function to go back from the 84 hrs map of the link, you will see that the lobe in question is the remains of the storm that came through NE yesterday and caused all our wind. It circled around the 50/50 low to now haunt us.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2025010300&fh=84

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Something to note about the synoptic setup for this storm is the absence of high pressure to the north. Without that feature in place we don't want to see the initial low become too amped and tracking to our NW with no wedge in place. Nice to see the GFS depiction of a weaker low as it tracks into WV with a secondary low to our south becoming more prominent.

With that new feature showing up in NE threatening to push everything south, though...wouldn't we want more amped to fight that more?

[Ji]

Remember when the JMA nailed that big storm back in 09/10? Yea, blind squirrel..

It was February 2006

[wxmvpete]

12 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

This shows that Lobe above Maine perfectly. A 100 miles south shift on the lobe makes a big difference in what snow we see or don't see.

Moved south on the GFS also just not as much.

We need that to stop  trending south asap.

 

Perhaps just as notable is the separation from the weak shortwave over southern Ontario and eastern Michigan. It interacted less with the primary trough and the lowest heights rose from ~540dm to ~546dm. Funny enough though, the 06Z GFS had more height rises out in front of the primary trough (maybe just a timing thing, i.e. slower this run). All that to say-- it's a complex setup and there are enough players here that we may noy get more agreement on guidance until we get closer to CAMs range where we also get better sampling of convection in the south, and the shortwaves revolving around the 500mb gyre to the north come into focus.

[Ravens94]

RGEM shifted atleast 90 miles south too. 12z will be telling if it's a trend or if it's just a waffle

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

This shows that Lobe above Maine perfectly. A 100 miles south shift on the lobe makes a big difference in what snow we see or don't see.

Moved south on the GFS also just not as much.

We need that to stop  trending south asap.

 

It's a delicate balance. The vorticity feeding the gyre is what flattens the flow and de-amplifies the wave enough to force it to track underneath. 

[T. August]

Just for kicks, looked through the euro ens panels. For DC/Nova - there are now zero misses to the north, and 5-6 complete whiffs to the south (less than 2 inches). Up north of Baltimore it’s even worse, I think 18 members show 1-2”, with half of that from tonight.

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, T. August said:

Just for kicks, looked through the euro ens panels. For DC/Nova - there are now zero misses to the north, and 5-6 complete whiffs to the south (less than 2 inches). Up north of Baltimore it’s even worse, I think 18 members show 1-2”, with half of that from tonight.

Not sure the EPS is any more dispersive from its parent than the GEFS, especially at this range. 

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, T. August said:

Just for kicks, looked through the euro ens panels. For DC/Nova - there are now zero misses to the north, and 5-6 complete whiffs to the south (less than 2 inches). Up north of Baltimore it’s even worse, I think 18 members show 1-2”, with half of that from tonight.

sweet! that would be 1-2" more than I have as a total. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6z Euro AI is a 3-6 inch event for our region with the 3 around Baltimore and the 6 south of DC.  Temps in the 20s throughout.   Would be a nice event.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

One thing about the 6z Euro being further south is it's quite cold.  Starts around 27 in DC and drops to 23/24 during the heaviest precip then only 26/27 for the high.  Very little snow would be wasted in that situation.  I love events like that.

[WhiteoutMD]

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[aldie 22]

Seems like the 6z euro is back to one of its earlier runs...i recall the next one came north and H20 pointed out rather vociferously how that was a huge fucking jump north over 80 miles. Although the euro has seemed the most stable of all of the models it certainly has had its own envelope of uncertainty. That stuff is pointed at our local area now we wait until gametime to see who cashes in. Good luck all...not anyone in NJ/NY though their trolling left a bad taste