mappy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Icon is north uptick in QPF for us northerners across both threats. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Terpeast said: Looks like a thump to mix to dry slot verbatim. Hard to tell between 90 and 96 hr Snow should wrap back around with that 5H 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, mitchnick said: Snow should wrap back around with that 5H Much sharper than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Snow should wrap back around with that 5H Correct, it does at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Doesn't seem to matter what models do for me lol. Same outcome. Getting interested in the zr. Lots of pines on the mountains and hills here. Could look pretty cool iced up after an inch of snow at best. Not that it makes any damm difference but I'm rooting for @stormtracker, @Deck Pic, and all the other folks who literally get edged every damn storm. Make sure you rub it in REAL good if it happens Even us in North-Central VA may get a lot of ice up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 ICON was looking pretty sweet with that west to east track along the TN-KY border through H90. Then it suddenly jumped the primary to Elkins by H96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I like the sharp h5 look and that energy passage as well transfer. Places that would avoid a dry slot would see some good enhancement as that pulls through. Probably some high ratio fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: jackpot IMBY 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 36 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z NBM. (Note not kuchera so this is probably underdone.) Thanks for posting the NBM, but it's worth noting that the NBM actually does compute SLRs and doesn't just use any sort of simple 10:1 approach. If the thermal profiles and such promote healthy ratios, that will be reflected in the NBM snow totals. It doesn't use the super-aggressive Kuchera approach, but it can still go well over 10:1 where appropriate. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On to tje GFS, @stormtrackerwhere u at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, high risk said: Thanks for posting the NBM, but it's worth noting that the NBM actually does compute SLRs and doesn't just use any sort of simple 10:1 approach. If the thermal profiles and such promote healthy ratios, that will be reflected in the NBM snow totals. It doesn't use the super-aggressive Kuchera approach, but it can still go well over 10:1 where appropriate. Thanks for that info, very helpful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Man that snow distribution is different than any other previous model runs. I mean i'm in the pink so no complaints but it's definitely a different way to get there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: Man that snow distribution is different than any other previous model runs. I mean i'm in the pink so no complaints but it's definitely a different way to get there. Consider the source 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, Solution Man said: On to tje GFS, @stormtrackerwhere u at? WB only on hr3, it takes so long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 12 minutes ago, Solution Man said: On to tje GFS, @stormtrackerwhere u at? Right here. Time of interest on the GFS isn't up yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, stormtracker said: Right here. Time of interest on the GFS isn't up yet Need you warming up lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I should note, Icon has this from tomorrow's clipper and would be deducted from the map I posted, which results in a hellava even distribution across the area. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010212&fh=72&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 So far, early on, no notable differences, including our s/w out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Still, nothing notable. S/w a hair stronger and souther, but confluence moved to the NE very very slightly. None of this is earth shattering. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 From what I can see at hr 63 everything is a touch NE from 6z. The precip shield and the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 beginning edge of precip shield as at the door a bit faster. Snow starts around 10p Sunday. COnfluence seems just a touch further North...nothing shocking 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, stormtracker said: beginning edge of precip shield as at the door a bit faster. Snow starts around 10p Sunday. COnfluence seems just a touch further North...nothing shocking Seems like it should be at the very least a decent run for us, definitely not a shift to the Euro though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: beginning edge of precip shield as at the door a bit faster. Snow starts around 10p Sunday. COnfluence seems just a touch further North...nothing shocking I feel like everything thus far is pretty uniform to 6z. No huge major changes. Anything to point out would be maybe a slightly better fetch of moisture getting pulled from the gulf, as evident over the Deep South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 This looks good. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Looks about the same so far.....so at the very least, no step backs EDIT/...it's a wetter run for DC beltway people. Looks wetter overall 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Yeah, nobody's kicking this run out of bed. brb with snow maps 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Give me 96 right now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Looks about the same so far.....so at the very least, no step backs EDIT/...it's a wetter run for DC beltway people. Looks wetter overall as marcus says--the wetter the better 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Through 21z, 10-12 circling DC south and Bmore North. and all surrounding areas around 8-10 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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