yoda Posted Friday at 09:57 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:57 AM I will accept hr 90 as well @CAPE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Friday at 09:58 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:58 AM Nice run WB 6Z GFS! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 09:58 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:58 AM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 10:03 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:03 AM Zoomed in PW Kuchera 06z GFS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Friday at 10:03 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:03 AM Wow insane wetSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 10:05 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:05 AM GFS is adjusting towards the other guidance. Less amplified/weaker with the initial low and earlier secondary development. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Friday at 10:09 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:09 AM Let's lock that up and call it a winter Till next weekend Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted Friday at 10:10 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:10 AM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 10:10 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:10 AM This is the modeled snow from the 6z GFS for today so factor that in the the snow total maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Friday at 10:14 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:14 AM About as good as winter gets around here forecasted the week of January 6! Snow and deep freeze. Rarity lately... 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Friday at 10:32 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:32 AM About as good as winter gets around here forecasted the week of January 6! Snow and deep freeze. Rarity lately...I remember in October November how the cfs kept insisting on a memorable January Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 10:36 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:36 AM Something to note about the synoptic setup for this storm is the absence of high pressure to the north. Without that feature in place we don't want to see the initial low become too amped and tracking to our NW with no wedge in place. Nice to see the GFS depiction of a weaker low as it tracks into WV with a secondary low to our south becoming more prominent. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Friday at 10:41 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:41 AM 43 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Nice run WB 6Z GFS! According to the latest guidance, this would be an excellent time to take a leisurely drive up Rt 28 from Manassas up to Dulles, to Rt 7 then Rt 9 past Paeonian Springs into Charles Town. Gonnabe lots of snow up there! Take in a beautiful jebwalk in 12-16 inches of snow while winning big on Craps. Used to do this all the time when there was a snow up there and plain soaking rain in Dale City! Instant gratificational fix! Everyone in the Mid Atlantic is going to get to savor massive snow fixes throughout January 2025! The snow drought is over. Everyone is going to get multiple strenuous workouts digging massive amounts of snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 10:41 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:41 AM Good morning. I woke up at 5 and tried to get back to sleep, but I caved and checked this forum to see what the euro said. Happy that I did. Even the 06z gfs! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 10:43 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:43 AM 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Something to note about the synoptic setup for this storm is the absence of high pressure to the north. Without that feature in place we don't want to see the initial low become too amped and tracking to our NW with no wedge in place. Nice to see the GFS depiction of a weaker low as it tracks into WV with a secondary low to our south becoming more prominent. It is a delicate balance that involves luck and timing. We have that northerly cyclonic flow from Canada, but it really is a thread the needle situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Friday at 10:45 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:45 AM What really puts that GFS run over the top is the 2-4 inches we get from the coastal after 0z Tuesday. The euro is a little less enthused with that aspect and gives us the majority of our snow from the overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 10:50 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:50 AM 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Good morning. I woke up at 5 and tried to get back to sleep, but I caved and checked this forum to see what the euro said. Happy that I did. Even the 06z gfs! Me too, and I'm exhausted fighting this d@mn covid crap. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 10:52 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:52 AM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Me too, and I'm exhausted fighting this d@mn covid crap. Feel better soon! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 11:10 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:10 AM Yesterday I was thinking that the “real” north trend probably wouldn’t show up until the storm is really forming over the plains and convection, etc. is giving it that strong diabatic heat release. So then the guidance would start to “see” the strength of the WAA and shift things a bit north. So even though I figured the GFS was out to lunch, it moving north all day yesterday already did make me a little nervous. Put those two north shifts together and it really could be a congrats NYC thing. With 60-72 hours to go until snow starts and the system not yet really developed, I’m quite happy to be on the north side of the modeled jackpot zone. I would still expect a modest shift north on guidance tomorrow-ish. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Friday at 11:15 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:15 AM Thanks @WxUSAF for cleaning up the thread. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Friday at 11:15 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:15 AM Nothing like waking up and having 113 new posts. You know something major happened, good or bad. Euro definitely made things interesting down this way. Nam showing 0.84” of ice is terrifying. Cheers to a fun day of model watching as everyone reels in what they want and hope out of this storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted Friday at 11:15 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:15 AM Woke up and just read pages 21-29. The whirlwind of emotions has me reeling… GFS finally got its act together at 06z. Goal posts seem to be narrowing. Still really liking Loudoun to DC. As long as we stay near the bullseye, we can afford subtle shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 11:16 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:16 AM 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yesterday I was thinking that the “real” north trend probably wouldn’t show up until the storm is really forming over the plains and convection, etc. is giving it that strong diabatic heat release. So then the guidance would start to “see” the strength of the WAA and shift things a bit north. So even though I figured the GFS was out to lunch, it moving north all day yesterday already did make me a little nervous. Put those two north shifts together and it really could be a congrats NYC thing. With 60-72 hours to go until snow starts and the system not yet really developed, I’m quite happy to be on the north side of the modeled jackpot zone. I would still expect a modest shift north on guidance tomorrow-ish. I've got that sinking south feeling. 6z Gem looks like 6z Rgem fwiw. Confluence seems to be the main culprit, at least on the Euro. I will say that no matter what ultimately happens, modeling has not been stellar with all the shifts that all have made over the past 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 11:23 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:23 AM 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I've got that sinking south feeling. 6z Gem looks like 6z Rgem fwiw. Confluence seems to be the main culprit, at least on the Euro. I will say that no matter what ultimately happens, modeling has not been stellar with all the shifts that all have made over the past 3 days. I think @psuhoffmanis probably doing the “guy peaking out from behind the tree rubbing his hands” gif thing once he sees the overnight runs. I think you’re good. If the max ends up along the VA/NC border, then that’s probably too far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 11:24 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:24 AM 06z Euro nudged souther again 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Friday at 11:25 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:25 AM 6z euro is south again. 4 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 11:26 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:26 AM 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think @psuhoffmanis probably doing the “guy peaking out from behind the tree rubbing his hands” gif thing once he sees the overnight runs. I think you’re good. If the max ends up along the VA/NC border, then that’s probably too far. Yep, and even if the M/D line or i-70 north don’t get the qpf max, their ratios should make up for it. Mitchnick is still good, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 11:27 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:27 AM 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: 6z euro is south again. We have some breathing room. Again. For how long? Who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Friday at 11:27 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:27 AM 45 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Good morning. I woke up at 5 and tried to get back to sleep, but I caved and checked this forum to see what the euro said. Happy that I did. Even the 06z gfs! Getting close to all systems go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted Friday at 11:27 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:27 AM I think [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention]is probably doing the “guy peaking out from behind the tree rubbing his hands” gif thing once he sees the overnight runs. I think you’re good. If the max ends up along the VA/NC border, then that’s probably too far.Euro disagrees… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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