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The January 5/6 Thing


stormtracker
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We will have the cold air in place to start, however, no re-enforcing cold source to funnel in. Pattern like this is for a front end thump in WAA which is our best shot. A good thump before the warmer air takes over. The stronger the low is to our west the faster the warm air takes over and then dry slot. Like threading a needle. I think the solutions with the stout CAD may be overdone a bit. Dynamic system which the GFS can have trouble locking in a solution like this. NAM, though at extended range is showing hints of more icing which in a La Niña is more climatologically favorable in a synoptic pattern like this.


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3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

We will have the cold air in place to start, however, no re-enforcing cold source to funnel in. Pattern like this is for a front end thump in WAA which is our best shot. A good thump before the warmer air takes over. The stronger the low is to our west the faster the warm air takes over and then dry slot. Like threading a needle. I think the solutions with the stout CAD may be overdone a bit. Dynamic system which the GFS can have trouble locking in a solution like this. NAM, though at extended range is showing hints of more icing which in a La Niña is more climatologically favorable in a synoptic pattern like this.


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IMG_7090.thumb.png.694c9e275c8432b8874535a7481bee2a.png

While we don’t have the typical cold high to the north, we do have northerly flow from Canada down to the upper mid Atlantic thanks to the TPV to the NE. I think it effectively serves the same function as a cold high would. But this system is so dynamic that any northward shift would basically shut us out of any significant accumulation, and favor more icing. I’m just hoping that doesn’t happen, but you could be right. 

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Guidance will be all over the place with this until 36-48 hours out. A west to east track is not the best for heavy snow for our region, however, the strong WAA riding over the cold air initially is our best shot at accumulating snow. It’s dynamic system so the guidance will have issues.


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7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

We will have the cold air in place to start, however, no re-enforcing cold source to funnel in. Pattern like this is for a front end thump in WAA which is our best shot. A good thump before the warmer air takes over. The stronger the low is to our west the faster the warm air takes over and then dry slot. Like threading a needle. I think the solutions with the stout CAD may be overdone a bit. Dynamic system which the GFS can have trouble locking in a solution like this. NAM, though at extended range is showing hints of more icing which in a La Niña is more climatologically favorable in a synoptic pattern like this.


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Good to hear from you again, even if it’s not amazing news! Always appreciate your constitutions 

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

DC gets 6” in both ‘extreme’ solutions on UK and GFS.  We’re a snow town bro. ;) 

I think a lot of these snow maps are overdone based on the sleet/fzrn potentials. Feeling like 3-4" on a front end thump to snizzle is our low bar for the dc area. If the cold can hang on or get some coastal enhancement, those numbers can bump up. Probably some lollys in the favored higher elevation areas. 

The good news is whatever falls will be sticking around for awhile! Also the mountains look to cash in regardless, so we have options :)

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