Deck Pic Posted Friday at 04:43 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:43 AM Just now, NorthArlington101 said: We need to turn off all models but the EURO outside 72 hours if it ends up being right I'm only 25 years ahead of you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted Friday at 04:43 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:43 AM Lol so GFS is congrats Harrisburg and Ukie is congrats Richmond... at least DC-Balt is right between the goalposts? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 04:43 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:43 AM Lulz 3 1 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Friday at 04:44 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:44 AM UKIE is much faster than the other guidance tonight, which I guess helps that happen. Not gonna bother puzzling out exactly why that happened since it won’t be the outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 04:44 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:44 AM The goal posts are set. Gfs/icon on one extreme, ukie on the other. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted Friday at 04:44 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:44 AM We will have the cold air in place to start, however, no re-enforcing cold source to funnel in. Pattern like this is for a front end thump in WAA which is our best shot. A good thump before the warmer air takes over. The stronger the low is to our west the faster the warm air takes over and then dry slot. Like threading a needle. I think the solutions with the stout CAD may be overdone a bit. Dynamic system which the GFS can have trouble locking in a solution like this. NAM, though at extended range is showing hints of more icing which in a La Niña is more climatologically favorable in a synoptic pattern like this. . 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Friday at 04:44 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:44 AM Just now, yoda said: Lulz And I bet half of that on the M/D line is from tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 04:47 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:47 AM 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Lulz It's pretty hilarious. I hope the NYC forum see this As far as us. I'd rather flirt with disaster than take a dry storm. But I live in DC and we suck at snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 04:47 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:47 AM 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: The goal posts are set. Gfs/icon on one extreme, ukie on the other. What a nightmare for you guys. But that is what you signed up for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Friday at 04:48 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:48 AM 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: The goal posts are set. Gfs/icon on one extreme, ukie on the other. CMC in the middle on Target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 04:48 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:48 AM At least GFS made sense with regards to the stronger s/w and slower movement that the other models in the suite caught onto. The UK says f all that and is faster and weaker with the vort. Sheesh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Friday at 04:49 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:49 AM 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: It's pretty hilarious. I hope the NYC forum see this As far as us. I'd rather flirt with disaster than take a dry storm. But I live in DC and we suck at snow. DC gets 6” in both ‘extreme’ solutions on UK and GFS. We’re a snow town bro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 04:50 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:50 AM 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: We will have the cold air in place to start, however, no re-enforcing cold source to funnel in. Pattern like this is for a front end thump in WAA which is our best shot. A good thump before the warmer air takes over. The stronger the low is to our west the faster the warm air takes over and then dry slot. Like threading a needle. I think the solutions with the stout CAD may be overdone a bit. Dynamic system which the GFS can have trouble locking in a solution like this. NAM, though at extended range is showing hints of more icing which in a La Niña is more climatologically favorable in a synoptic pattern like this. . While we don’t have the typical cold high to the north, we do have northerly flow from Canada down to the upper mid Atlantic thanks to the TPV to the NE. I think it effectively serves the same function as a cold high would. But this system is so dynamic that any northward shift would basically shut us out of any significant accumulation, and favor more icing. I’m just hoping that doesn’t happen, but you could be right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted Friday at 04:51 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:51 AM Guidance will be all over the place with this until 36-48 hours out. A west to east track is not the best for heavy snow for our region, however, the strong WAA riding over the cold air initially is our best shot at accumulating snow. It’s dynamic system so the guidance will have issues. . 8 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Friday at 04:52 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:52 AM 7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: We will have the cold air in place to start, however, no re-enforcing cold source to funnel in. Pattern like this is for a front end thump in WAA which is our best shot. A good thump before the warmer air takes over. The stronger the low is to our west the faster the warm air takes over and then dry slot. Like threading a needle. I think the solutions with the stout CAD may be overdone a bit. Dynamic system which the GFS can have trouble locking in a solution like this. NAM, though at extended range is showing hints of more icing which in a La Niña is more climatologically favorable in a synoptic pattern like this. . Good to hear from you again, even if it’s not amazing news! Always appreciate your constitutions 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted Friday at 04:55 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:55 AM 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: DC gets 6” in both ‘extreme’ solutions on UK and GFS. We’re a snow town bro. I think a lot of these snow maps are overdone based on the sleet/fzrn potentials. Feeling like 3-4" on a front end thump to snizzle is our low bar for the dc area. If the cold can hang on or get some coastal enhancement, those numbers can bump up. Probably some lollys in the favored higher elevation areas. The good news is whatever falls will be sticking around for awhile! Also the mountains look to cash in regardless, so we have options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Friday at 04:56 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:56 AM 27 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: That’s wild! 1.5-2.3” of sleet. I’ve seen almost 4” when I lived in CT and it was absolutely epic! I'll have to go record check, but the year we got 7 inches of pure sleet was ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 04:56 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:56 AM What is going on in here, lol. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Friday at 04:56 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:56 AM Only the EURO matters...we will know soon enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Friday at 04:56 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:56 AM Just now, stormtracker said: What is going on in here, lol. Model chaos=forum chaos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 04:57 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:57 AM Anyway, GFS seems to be the only whackfest so far at 0z. NAM is kinda in the middle? Not worried...yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted Friday at 04:57 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:57 AM 12 minutes ago, mdhokie said: How much did Short Pump have to pay to advertise their town on these maps? it's not even incorporated! it's just a census designated place in Henrico County lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted Friday at 05:00 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:00 AM 3 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: I'll have to go record check, but the year we got 7 inches of pure sleet was ridiculous. Feb 2007 and the concrete that ensued? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted Friday at 05:00 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:00 AM 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anyway, GFS seems to be the only whackfest so far at 0z. NAM is kinda in the middle? Not worried...yet Did you catch the UKMET dropping 10” on Bob Chill’s hill ? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 05:02 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:02 AM 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: Did you catch the UKMET dropping 10” on Bob Chill’s hill ? I did. I'm all for it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Friday at 05:07 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:07 AM I'm still a day out, models this set of runs have jackpot running from PA/MD line down to south-central VA. Some models do things better than others, we shall know better tomorrow. It is a fun and frustrating game, as always lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 05:13 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:13 AM Euro a 'running 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 05:15 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:15 AM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Euro a 'running 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 05:16 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:16 AM Just now, Deck Pic said: Just need a hold and I can drift off until 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Friday at 05:17 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:17 AM 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro a 'running Hopefully no turbulence and we have a smooth flight. Would love to see it pretty much bet the same maybe just wetter or a small 10-25 mile shift either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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