SnowGoose69 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10 minutes ago, Terpeast said: As far as recent 1-5 day verification performance goes: 500mb heights: Euro is top, CMC very close second, GFS distant third 850mb temps: Euro top, CMC and GFS are about the same Did not check ensembles. GFS is usually just bad in -NAO/+PNA patterns. The fast Pac has probably prevented it from verifying even worse as it might be playing into its bias somewhat but usually the blockier the pattern is the more likely the CMC/Euro are going to be better than the GFS and its been that way for awhile 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Hmm. Interesting What’s interesting is that GFS performance really nosedives on some specific periods (1-2 days) and then gets back in line with the CMC and Euro, which have smaller dips. I haven’t checked, but my hunch is that the GFS struggles mightily with highly dynamic storms and/or major pattern shifts. Would have to do some reanalysis to back this up, but it’s getting late 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 WB 0Z GEFS compared to 18Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 You can tell it's been a while since everyone has tracked a real dynamic storm around these parts - these model battles are half the fun. Quite literally a day ago - the GFS has the shortwave strung out and open and now we're looking at a 2 contour closed off low at H5 before the transfer to the coast. That's a considerable amount of variability within the ML evolution within a 24-36 hour window. It's going to happen. Until the CMC/Euro/Ukie camp begins to show a similar shift in regards to strength + ML warm nose - I will side with the models who have not wavered much over the last day or so versus the one playing catch up. GFS could definitely catch a win here, but there's no need to freak out about an event starting in 72 hours. Side Note: I am wondering if a couple inches up north (Metro into PA) with staying power into Sunday could help bring things down a degree or two at the sfc. I am noticing a band of slightly cooler temps along wherever the GFS sets up its maxima for tomorrow's squalls. It's slight but we'll take the help. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: What’s interesting is that GFS performance really nosedives on some specific periods (1-2 days) and then gets back in line with the CMC and Euro, which have smaller dips. I haven’t checked, but my hunch is that the GFS struggles mightily with highly dynamic storms and/or major pattern shifts. Would have to do some reanalysis to back this up, but it’s getting late Well I will admit that I do love when mets are willing to toss the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GEFS compared to 18Z. Looks like follow the leader as usual for the Gfs but we are about 3 days out so they all should start to look pretty similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Snow begins just after midnight DC metro. Snow all the way down to VA/NC border. 00z UKIE at 78 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 49 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 5H short wave goes thru central VA. There will be great ratios with that Ala 2/10/10. Is that when 500 dropped in and we went crazy blowing moderate to heavy snow from like 7am to 11am ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Ukie crushes a lot of you 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, yoda said: Snow begins just after midnight DC metro. Snow all the way down to VA/NC border. 00z UKIE at 78 It's south alright. More confluence, weaker vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Ukie is south lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Well I will admit that I do love when mets are willing to toss the GFS. Even the worst model for snow (gfs) for your area is about 6". Other are a foot or more. You're in a great spot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, yoda said: Ukie is south lol Significantly so too, some of the forum even gets fringed 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Lol so GFS is congrats Harrisburg and Ukie is congrats Richmond... at least DC-Balt is right between the goalposts? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Lulz 3 1 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 UKIE is much faster than the other guidance tonight, which I guess helps that happen. Not gonna bother puzzling out exactly why that happened since it won’t be the outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The goal posts are set. Gfs/icon on one extreme, ukie on the other. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 We will have the cold air in place to start, however, no re-enforcing cold source to funnel in. Pattern like this is for a front end thump in WAA which is our best shot. A good thump before the warmer air takes over. The stronger the low is to our west the faster the warm air takes over and then dry slot. Like threading a needle. I think the solutions with the stout CAD may be overdone a bit. Dynamic system which the GFS can have trouble locking in a solution like this. NAM, though at extended range is showing hints of more icing which in a La Niña is more climatologically favorable in a synoptic pattern like this. . 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, yoda said: Lulz And I bet half of that on the M/D line is from tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: The goal posts are set. Gfs/icon on one extreme, ukie on the other. What a nightmare for you guys. But that is what you signed up for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: The goal posts are set. Gfs/icon on one extreme, ukie on the other. CMC in the middle on Target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 At least GFS made sense with regards to the stronger s/w and slower movement that the other models in the suite caught onto. The UK says f all that and is faster and weaker with the vort. Sheesh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: It's pretty hilarious. I hope the NYC forum see this As far as us. I'd rather flirt with disaster than take a dry storm. But I live in DC and we suck at snow. DC gets 6” in both ‘extreme’ solutions on UK and GFS. We’re a snow town bro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: We will have the cold air in place to start, however, no re-enforcing cold source to funnel in. Pattern like this is for a front end thump in WAA which is our best shot. A good thump before the warmer air takes over. The stronger the low is to our west the faster the warm air takes over and then dry slot. Like threading a needle. I think the solutions with the stout CAD may be overdone a bit. Dynamic system which the GFS can have trouble locking in a solution like this. NAM, though at extended range is showing hints of more icing which in a La Niña is more climatologically favorable in a synoptic pattern like this. . While we don’t have the typical cold high to the north, we do have northerly flow from Canada down to the upper mid Atlantic thanks to the TPV to the NE. I think it effectively serves the same function as a cold high would. But this system is so dynamic that any northward shift would basically shut us out of any significant accumulation, and favor more icing. I’m just hoping that doesn’t happen, but you could be right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Guidance will be all over the place with this until 36-48 hours out. A west to east track is not the best for heavy snow for our region, however, the strong WAA riding over the cold air initially is our best shot at accumulating snow. It’s dynamic system so the guidance will have issues. . 8 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: We will have the cold air in place to start, however, no re-enforcing cold source to funnel in. Pattern like this is for a front end thump in WAA which is our best shot. A good thump before the warmer air takes over. The stronger the low is to our west the faster the warm air takes over and then dry slot. Like threading a needle. I think the solutions with the stout CAD may be overdone a bit. Dynamic system which the GFS can have trouble locking in a solution like this. NAM, though at extended range is showing hints of more icing which in a La Niña is more climatologically favorable in a synoptic pattern like this. . Good to hear from you again, even if it’s not amazing news! Always appreciate your constitutions 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: DC gets 6” in both ‘extreme’ solutions on UK and GFS. We’re a snow town bro. I think a lot of these snow maps are overdone based on the sleet/fzrn potentials. Feeling like 3-4" on a front end thump to snizzle is our low bar for the dc area. If the cold can hang on or get some coastal enhancement, those numbers can bump up. Probably some lollys in the favored higher elevation areas. The good news is whatever falls will be sticking around for awhile! Also the mountains look to cash in regardless, so we have options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 27 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: That’s wild! 1.5-2.3” of sleet. I’ve seen almost 4” when I lived in CT and it was absolutely epic! I'll have to go record check, but the year we got 7 inches of pure sleet was ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 What is going on in here, lol. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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