The January 5/6 Thing

[Solution Man]

CMC looks like a plausible outcome, but that model….damn. If King is rock steady again we should be tracking.

[Rd9108]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

He needs to stop with the yinz crap he's sending it to pitt

Cmc gives my area a foot as well. Let's just shake on it now and everybody is happy.

[DDweatherman]

The Canadian is what I expect that kinda upstairs look to result in. There's still a formidable cold dome and associated confluence being driven into by the s/w. Yes its potent on these runs this evening, but it actually can result in a solid CAD wedge, which the GFS is notorious for not representing well. The Euro, GGEM, NAM, and Icon thermals were all pretty solid at 0z. 

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

if it wasn't the CMC, sure would.   Just hoping the Euro holds and the GFS just had a shit the bed run

The CMC scores quite a bit better than the GFS, so I’m not sure why you’re saying this. 

[T. August]

I know we are closing in on this event, but I’m curious to see what gfs ens show. 18z gefs had some real stinkers that looked a lot like 0z op honestly.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said:

GFS is hammered and needs to go to bed. The Euro will hold serve. It has been consistent while the gfs has taken bullseye from North Carolina to southern PA.


.

GFS is not alone though. It has all the American suite plus the German's on its side. Euro and Canadians are on the other side. 

[Jrlg1181]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

That’s wild! 1.5-2.3” of sleet. I’ve seen almost 4” when I lived in CT and it was absolutely epic! 

President's Day 2 back in 2003 , measured half inch of snow followed by 7 inches of pure sleet down here - in western Albemarle county then... We didn't get the huge snow totals like just to our north got...

[Terpeast]

As far as recent 1-5 day verification performance goes:

500mb heights: Euro is top, CMC very close second, GFS distant third

850mb temps: Euro top, CMC and GFS are about the same

Did not check ensembles. 

[Amped]

I am liking this CMC trend. Temporarily lifting finger slightly off the panic button.

 

 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Jrlg1181 said:

President's Day 2 back in 2003 , measured half inch of snow followed by 7 inches of pure sleet down here - in western Albemarle county then... We didn't get the huge snow totals like just to our north got...

It was insane. And I actually dont think I would hate a sleet bomb with the cold that is coming. I could slide down my front yard every day to my car. 

[Weather Will]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS is not alone though. It has all the American suite plus the German's on its side. Euro and Canadians are on the other side. 

WB 0Z ICON was south of GFS with heaviest snow band.

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

As far as recent 1-5 day verification performance goes:

500mb heights: Euro is top, CMC very close second, GFS distant third

850mb temps: Euro top, CMC and GFS are about the same

Did not check ensembles. 

Hmm.  Interesting

[NorthArlington101]

Too tired to grab the maps, but GEFS with a mild shift north. Makes sense that it follows the OP. 

[LordBaltimore]

15 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

That’s wild! 1.5-2.3” of sleet. I’ve seen almost 4” when I lived in CT and it was absolutely epic! 

can't recall the exact event, but I remember a couple of inches of sleet in downtown baltimore around 2017ish. The texture of it was crazy

[Deck Pic]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

As far as recent 1-5 day verification performance goes:

500mb heights: Euro is top, CMC very close second, GFS distant third

850mb temps: Euro top, CMC and GFS are about the same

Did not check ensembles. 

I know these things matter and factor in, but my thing with the GFS is that I think it is just particularly bad with east coast snowstorms.  It does really well in a lot of other areas I know.  For all I know it might be the gold standard for certain important energy metrics.  But east coast snowstorms - It scores a win here and there, but It can never get its act together for very long.

[SnowGoose69]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

As far as recent 1-5 day verification performance goes:

500mb heights: Euro is top, CMC very close second, GFS distant third

850mb temps: Euro top, CMC and GFS are about the same

Did not check ensembles. 

GFS is usually just bad in -NAO/+PNA patterns.  The fast Pac has probably prevented it from verifying even worse as it might be playing into its bias somewhat but usually the blockier the pattern is the more likely the CMC/Euro are going to be better than the GFS and its been that way for awhile

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Hmm.  Interesting

What’s interesting is that GFS performance really nosedives on some specific periods (1-2 days) and then gets back in line with the CMC and Euro, which have smaller dips. I haven’t checked, but my hunch is that the GFS struggles mightily with highly dynamic storms and/or major pattern shifts.  Would have to do some reanalysis to back this up, but it’s getting late  

[Deck Pic]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

What’s interesting is that GFS performance really nosedives on some specific periods (1-2 days) and then gets back in line with the CMC and Euro, which have smaller dips. I haven’t checked, but my hunch is that the GFS struggles mightily with highly dynamic storms and/or major pattern shifts.  Would have to do some reanalysis to back this up, but it’s getting late  

You have a good hour before the euro comes out.  Plenty of time for reanalysis while we wait.  

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GEFS compared to 18Z. 

[Alfoman]

You can tell it's been a while since everyone has tracked a real dynamic storm around these parts - these model battles are half the fun. 

Quite literally a day ago - the GFS has the shortwave strung out and open and now we're looking at a 2 contour closed off low at H5 before the transfer to the coast. That's a considerable amount of variability within the ML evolution within a 24-36 hour window. It's going to happen. 

Until the CMC/Euro/Ukie camp begins to show a similar shift in regards to strength + ML warm nose - I will side with the models who have not wavered much over the last day or so versus the one playing catch up. GFS could definitely catch a win here, but there's no need to freak out about an event starting in 72 hours. 

Side Note: I am wondering if a couple inches up north (Metro into PA) with staying power into Sunday could help bring things down a degree or two at the sfc. I am noticing a band of slightly cooler temps along wherever the GFS sets up its maxima for tomorrow's squalls. It's slight but we'll take the help.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

What’s interesting is that GFS performance really nosedives on some specific periods (1-2 days) and then gets back in line with the CMC and Euro, which have smaller dips. I haven’t checked, but my hunch is that the GFS struggles mightily with highly dynamic storms and/or major pattern shifts.  Would have to do some reanalysis to back this up, but it’s getting late  

Well I will admit that I do love when mets are willing to toss the GFS.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z GEFS compared to 18Z. 

Looks like follow the leader as usual for the Gfs but we are about 3 days out so they all should start to look pretty similar 

[yoda]

Snow begins just after midnight DC metro.  Snow all the way down to VA/NC border.  00z UKIE at 78

[WEATHER53]

49 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

5H short wave goes thru central VA. There will be great ratios with that Ala 2/10/10.

Is that when 500 dropped in and we went crazy  blowing moderate to heavy snow from like 7am to 11am  ?

[ineedsnow]

Ukie crushes a lot of you

[mitchnick]

Just now, yoda said:

Snow begins just after midnight DC metro.  Snow all the way down to VA/NC border.  00z UKIE at 78

It's south alright. More confluence, weaker vort.

[yoda]

Ukie is south lol

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Well I will admit that I do love when mets are willing to toss the GFS.

Even the worst model for snow (gfs) for your area is about 6". Other are a foot or more. You're in a great spot

 

[ineedsnow]

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Ukie is south lol

Significantly so too, some of the forum even gets fringed