DDweatherman Posted Friday at 04:06 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:06 AM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 5H short wave goes thru central VA. There will be great ratios with that Ala 2/10/10. It would be a bigtime fluff event Monday aftn/evening for sure. Toned back version of what we saw that day. I’m with Matt though, don’t see that gfs evolution having a ton of legs as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Friday at 04:06 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:06 AM WB OZ GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Friday at 04:06 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:06 AM CMC is well south of the GFS through 66hrs. Downstream confluence much stronger. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Friday at 04:06 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:06 AM Meanwhile CMC out to hour 72 has a slightly more amped S/w but better confluence than it’s 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 04:07 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:07 AM 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's one run. How can yall make declarative statements already? We are going to mix...accept it 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: Dude it’s the Goofus. You all will actually do way better than me with that run. That is classic ass out here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 04:08 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:08 AM Not a fan of the GFS run either. We’ll see what the CMC has to say. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 04:08 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:08 AM Just now, DDweatherman said: It would be a bigtime fluff event Monday aftn/evening for sure. Toned back version of what we saw that day. I’m with Matt though, don’t see that gfs evolution having a ton of legs as is. I don't mind flirting with disaster. I'm not necessarily rooting for a suppressed solution. I'd be ok with 3-4" and then sleet if it gives me a chance at 8"+. We just need the frontrunning to blow up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Friday at 04:09 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:09 AM CMC is slower but still looks like a good thump incoming at 7am Monday. Deeper cad - looks better 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 04:10 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:10 AM 6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: We toss. Next. The run doesn't even make sense. How often does an occluding primary over WV pop a secondary over fucking charlotte. This run is idiotic. The GFS is terrible. If we lose the euro from tonight through 12z then it's time to face the music. No point in panicking now, especially with half the models being cold, half not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 04:10 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:10 AM CMC also closing off the low, which all models have so far trended to. But confluence is stronger and more cold air is pressing down SW at least for the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Friday at 04:10 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:10 AM GGEM looks to follow RGEM…should be a great run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Friday at 04:11 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:11 AM 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: CMC is slower but still looks like a good thump incoming at 7am Monday. Deeper cad - looks better Looks more snowy than it’s 12z run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted Friday at 04:11 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:11 AM Let’s hope the Canadian is right despite the much later start time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Friday at 04:12 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:12 AM GGEM drops like 8” of snow in DC in 6 hours Monday AM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Friday at 04:12 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:12 AM Just now, nj2va said: GGEM drops like 8” of snow in DC in 6 hours Monday AM. It’s a beaut. Not a threat of mixing in sight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 04:12 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:12 AM 1 minute ago, T. August said: Gonna sound like a weenie for a second. It’s frustrating how we can’t get it within 72 hours. Last night/this morning it was a Sunday evening start time. Now it’s around 2AM for the DC area. state of the guidance is what it is. Model data should never have been made available to the public. We cant have nice things. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 04:12 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:12 AM Yeah CMC is a hit. No temp issues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 04:13 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:13 AM CMC is a forum wide snowstorm with little or no mixing. I need to check its verification scores within 5 days, but it’s up there last time I looked. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted Friday at 04:14 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:14 AM It’s colder which I like the 12z got DC to 32 this run only 29 at the warmest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Friday at 04:14 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:14 AM GFS seems to be on an island with its evolution. Will take a look at ensembles to see how they behave, the rest of the 00z suite looks absolutely nothing like it. I know this is a broken record, but people have to stop living and dying by every model run. You will drive yourself crazy. CMC coming in for a major beat down and follows the rest of the suite with its 5H evolution. Everything still looks fine by my eyes. Back to QPF forecasting for me. Will chime back in after 1230 12 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Friday at 04:14 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:14 AM WB 0Z Can 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Friday at 04:14 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:14 AM MECS-Y 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted Friday at 04:15 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:15 AM CMC should take everyone off the ledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Friday at 04:16 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:16 AM 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah CMC is a hit. No temp issues DC Jackpot. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Friday at 04:16 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:16 AM CMC has been performing better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted Friday at 04:17 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:17 AM 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: MECS-Y Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 04:17 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:17 AM Canadian is cold smoke. And looks A LOT like the Euro. What an infuriating hobby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 04:17 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:17 AM 2 minutes ago, Kleimax said: CMC should take everyone off the ledge if it wasn't the CMC, sure would. Just hoping the Euro holds and the GFS just had a shit the bed run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Friday at 04:18 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:18 AM 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Can That’s wild! 1.5-2.3” of sleet. I’ve seen almost 4” when I lived in CT and it was absolutely epic! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Friday at 04:18 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:18 AM Hope the ukie follows the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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