stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Back to snow at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS is a great run for Pittsburgh. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:53 AM, stormtracker said: S/w stronger...2 countered vs 1 at 18z. Seems to be a trend tonight making the s/w a bit stronger Expand I’m starting to think we don’t want this. Seems to result in a slower storm and a stauncher warm nose. I could also very well be connecting the dots on something that isn’t a connect the dots puzzle. makes it more miller B coastal transfer screwjob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Still going at 6z Tuesday. All snow. light to mod 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 4:00 AM, NorthArlington101 said: I’m starting to think we don’t want this. Seems to result in a slower storm and a stauncher warm nose. I could also very well be connecting the dots on something that isn’t a connect the dots puzzle. Expand The time of needing a stronger S/w is over, we no longer have the fear of this shredding or going too far south. For a while yesterday the trend of a stronger S/w helped us but now it’s the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Still going. 9z...some coastal help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The vort moved so slow it just over amplified into oblivion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 slightly longer duration vs 18z. about to pull away at 7am Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 99% over here - trying to cut out tomorrow’s “event”… this timeframe cuts a little snow off the southern end 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 4:01 AM, SnowenOutThere said: The time of needing a stronger S/w is over, we no longer have the fear of this shredding or going too far south. For a while yesterday the trend of a stronger S/w helped us but now it’s the opposite Expand The GFS has done this before, and it also is a good bit warmer at the mid and lower levels without a CAD wedge the likes of which the euro, Ggem, and UK even have on latest runs. yes the vort can amp too much depending on location and progression, but I’m not buying what this particular run shows verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5H short wave goes thru central VA. There will be great ratios with that Ala 2/10/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 down to 4-6 in the metro area...M/D line jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Classic jumper screwjob for west of the Blue Ridge. Would not want to be a met for the shitshow that is coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 ok, yall fight about the goodness/badness of this one. I'm heading to the LR thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 4:03 AM, NorthArlington101 said: 99% over here - trying to cut out tomorrow’s “event” Expand Not horrible verbatim but if it trends any further north it’ll get ugly for most of forum where people live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Kuchera doesn't look awful for DC and Baltimore. 5" for DC and 6" for Baltimore. It still looks bad. Toss this in the bin, thank God that this run came from the GFS and not the Euro, and pray that the Euro won't follow suit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 4:04 AM, clskinsfan said: Classic jumper screwjob for west of the Blue Ridge. Would not want to be a met for the shitshow that is coming. Expand It's one run. How can yall make declarative statements already? We are going to mix...accept it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 4:03 AM, NorthArlington101 said: 99% over here - trying to cut out tomorrow’s “event”… this timeframe cuts a little snow off the southern end Expand 6” cuts through DC even taking out tomorrow. GFS is such a garbage model with that evolution. But nice to see a warning level event with such a stupid azz solution. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 4:03 AM, mitchnick said: 5H short wave goes thru central VA. There will be great ratios with that Ala 2/10/10. Expand It would be a bigtime fluff event Monday aftn/evening for sure. Toned back version of what we saw that day. I’m with Matt though, don’t see that gfs evolution having a ton of legs as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 WB OZ GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 CMC is well south of the GFS through 66hrs. Downstream confluence much stronger. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Meanwhile CMC out to hour 72 has a slightly more amped S/w but better confluence than it’s 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 4:05 AM, stormtracker said: It's one run. How can yall make declarative statements already? We are going to mix...accept it Expand On 1/3/2025 at 4:05 AM, ravensrule said: Dude it’s the Goofus. Expand You all will actually do way better than me with that run. That is classic ass out here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Not a fan of the GFS run either. We’ll see what the CMC has to say. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 CMC is slower but still looks like a good thump incoming at 7am Monday. Deeper cad - looks better 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 4:02 AM, Deck Pic said: We toss. Next. The run doesn't even make sense. How often does an occluding primary over WV pop a secondary over fucking charlotte. This run is idiotic. The GFS is terrible. Expand If we lose the euro from tonight through 12z then it's time to face the music. No point in panicking now, especially with half the models being cold, half not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 CMC also closing off the low, which all models have so far trended to. But confluence is stronger and more cold air is pressing down SW at least for the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GGEM looks to follow RGEM…should be a great run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 4:09 AM, NorthArlington101 said: CMC is slower but still looks like a good thump incoming at 7am Monday. Deeper cad - looks better Expand Looks more snowy than it’s 12z run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Let’s hope the Canadian is right despite the much later start time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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