SnowenOutThere Posted Friday at 03:53 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:53 AM 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hair more amped, but base of s/w a hair south. Confluence about the same Confluence is technically slightly further north east but only maybe half an asshairs (approximately one county further north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 03:55 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:55 AM Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Quick request: A definition of "2 countered" once PBP is finished. He mains contoured aka 2 closed contours if you look at the h5 maps. Usually indicative of a pretty substantial vort/sw 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 03:55 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:55 AM Starts around 1am Monday AM. Temp profile about the same at 81. Seems drier to the west of us vs 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Friday at 03:56 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:56 AM 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Quick request: A definition of "2 countered" once PBP is finished. How maybe closed counters there are around the low on the vort or h5 map. More closed conters is stronger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 03:56 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:56 AM Still seems a bit drier vs 18z so far...confluence is just a tiny bit more NE. Temps looks fine for now for DC metro and north unless theres some sneaky warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 03:58 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:58 AM Still a little drier...oddly enough 850 south of DC, but north of NW VA...about the same as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 03:58 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:58 AM Sleet at 90 for DC and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 03:59 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:59 AM 850s up to frederick. SFC at 32 just along DC SE border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 03:59 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:59 AM Just now, stormtracker said: Still a little drier...oddly enough 850 south of DC, but north of NW VA...about the same as 18z Wxbell maps say a lot differently. Has mix line up to FDK almost m/d line. Maybe SV looks different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 03:59 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:59 AM Just now, stormtracker said: 850s up to frederick. SFC at 32 just along DC SE border Nvm on the same page now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 03:59 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:59 AM Back to snow at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Friday at 03:59 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:59 AM GFS is a great run for Pittsburgh. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Friday at 04:00 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:00 AM 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: S/w stronger...2 countered vs 1 at 18z. Seems to be a trend tonight making the s/w a bit stronger I’m starting to think we don’t want this. Seems to result in a slower storm and a stauncher warm nose. I could also very well be connecting the dots on something that isn’t a connect the dots puzzle. makes it more miller B coastal transfer screwjob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 04:01 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:01 AM Still going at 6z Tuesday. All snow. light to mod 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Friday at 04:01 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:01 AM Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I’m starting to think we don’t want this. Seems to result in a slower storm and a stauncher warm nose. I could also very well be connecting the dots on something that isn’t a connect the dots puzzle. The time of needing a stronger S/w is over, we no longer have the fear of this shredding or going too far south. For a while yesterday the trend of a stronger S/w helped us but now it’s the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 04:01 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:01 AM Still going. 9z...some coastal help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 04:02 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:02 AM The vort moved so slow it just over amplified into oblivion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 04:02 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:02 AM We toss. Next. The run doesn't even make sense. How often does an occluding primary over WV pop a secondary over fucking charlotte. This run is idiotic. The GFS is terrible. 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 04:03 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:03 AM slightly longer duration vs 18z. about to pull away at 7am Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Friday at 04:03 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:03 AM 99% over here - trying to cut out tomorrow’s “event”… this timeframe cuts a little snow off the southern end 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 04:03 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:03 AM Just now, SnowenOutThere said: The time of needing a stronger S/w is over, we no longer have the fear of this shredding or going too far south. For a while yesterday the trend of a stronger S/w helped us but now it’s the opposite The GFS has done this before, and it also is a good bit warmer at the mid and lower levels without a CAD wedge the likes of which the euro, Ggem, and UK even have on latest runs. yes the vort can amp too much depending on location and progression, but I’m not buying what this particular run shows verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 04:03 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:03 AM 5H short wave goes thru central VA. There will be great ratios with that Ala 2/10/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 04:03 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:03 AM down to 4-6 in the metro area...M/D line jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 04:04 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:04 AM Classic jumper screwjob for west of the Blue Ridge. Would not want to be a met for the shitshow that is coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 04:04 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:04 AM ok, yall fight about the goodness/badness of this one. I'm heading to the LR thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Friday at 04:04 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:04 AM Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 99% over here - trying to cut out tomorrow’s “event” Not horrible verbatim but if it trends any further north it’ll get ugly for most of forum where people live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Friday at 04:05 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:05 AM Kuchera doesn't look awful for DC and Baltimore. 5" for DC and 6" for Baltimore. It still looks bad. Toss this in the bin, thank God that this run came from the GFS and not the Euro, and pray that the Euro won't follow suit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 04:05 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:05 AM Just now, clskinsfan said: Classic jumper screwjob for west of the Blue Ridge. Would not want to be a met for the shitshow that is coming. It's one run. How can yall make declarative statements already? We are going to mix...accept it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Friday at 04:05 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:05 AM 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 99% over here - trying to cut out tomorrow’s “event”… this timeframe cuts a little snow off the southern end 6” cuts through DC even taking out tomorrow. GFS is such a garbage model with that evolution. But nice to see a warning level event with such a stupid azz solution. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 04:06 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:06 AM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: ok, yall fight about the goodness/badness of this one. I'm heading to the LR thread what goodness? EWR gets like 10" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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