NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:23 AM, Ji said: I’ve heard back-to-back posters saying it’s a great run and a bad run all in the same second Expand can see it both ways. Shows a sharp southern cutoff. Also shows an absolutely juiced WAA thump. Choose your own adventure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:30 AM, SnowenOutThere said: Sorry man next time when I make a forecast a week out for an exact amount of snow I’ll make sure they know I did it so they would think I’m a “real forecaster”. Guess those people over at the NWS are also just posers with their fancy percentage based maps till a storms inside day 3. Expand The storm is 3 days away now, Saturday is 2 days? I’m confused why you’re not allowed to make a real call 2 days out. That’s when the NWS will issue their forecast and headlines for the storm will likely be in place… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I wonder if Eric Webb will make hay with the NAM sleet fest. He's been very downish on this threat for the MA. Today he hurt my feelings by raising the specter of Jan 2017 when central-eastern NC had a solid event forecast and at the last minute the NAM sniffed out a warm nose that reduced our 6 - 9" to maybe 1" of sleet and freezing drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:31 AM, NorthArlington101 said: can see it both ways. Shows a sharp southern cutoff. Also shows an absolutely juiced WAA thump. Choose your own adventure Expand i think why a lot of people in the forum would be scared is because even though that shows a foot, a slightly warmer warm nose (as is the case for these types of storms) would absolutely cook everyone here. though, idt the southern cutoff is really that sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skiseeker Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Thinking of heading up from hot springs Va, to snowshoe WV for this one Sunday morning… just hoping school gets called off Monday and Tuesday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:32 AM, cbmclean said: I wonder if Eric Webb will make hay with the NAM sleet fest. He's been very downish on this threat for the MA. Today he hurt my feelings by raising the specter of Jan 2017 when central-eastern NC had a solid event forecast and at the last minute the NAM sniffed out a warm nose that reduced our 6 - 9" to maybe 1" of sleet and freezing drizzle. Expand I truly feel for snow lovers south of I-64. You've been gipped far too often. 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 RGEM was lining us up for a complete beatdown. Just Obliterated. Well I66 and north. Riding that line is where you want be. As long as the models have the line in the right place. Definitely want to see the rest of the run from GGEM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:23 AM, Ji said: I’ve heard back-to-back posters saying it’s a great run and a bad run all in the same second Expand If the GFS/Euro combo is good, Im good 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Anyway, GFS running. Away we go 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:32 AM, DDweatherman said: The storm is 3 days away now, Saturday is 2 days? I’m confused why you’re not allowed to make a real call 2 days out. That’s when the NWS will issue their forecast and headlines for the storm will likely be in place… Expand Well yeah, I make one forecast when a storm is 6 days out at the start of the medium range with a general overview that goes over potential setups. Then I made one today for 4 days out at the end of the medium range that goes over distinct possibilities from the setup that the models agreed upon and then I’ll make one Sunday morning with accumulation maps and stuff as itll be in the short range then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:27 AM, nj2va said: Fetch off the Gulf too Expand Looks pretty nice. I'm hoping that everybody gets at least six inches from this. Also, am I the only one who thinks that looks like a t-bone steak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Nothing weird out of this GFS run plz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I'd like to see a 4-in-a-row thing for the GFS just for confidence in the model. Today it's been Ctrl+C and Ctrl+V for the GFS (same with the Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 No remarkable changes through 48 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 A note to snow total maps from this run of the GFS is that it gives a small blob around DC an inch of snow from Fridays squall event so make sure to keep that in mind! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AACOUNTYMD Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I can count on one hand the number of times I have been in the bullseye for snow. . . ok, I can count on one finger. But as a long time lurker and rare post-er, i know that being in the bullseye three days out isn't all that it might seem to be. Keep the good news coming, everyone. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:47 AM, AACOUNTYMD said: I can count on one hand the number of times I have been in the bullseye for snow. . . ok, I can count on one finger. But as a long time lurker and rare post-er, i know that being in the bullseye three days out isn't all that it might seem to be. Keep the good news coming, everyone. . . Expand Imagine being in Winchester where we are the bullseye with just about every single storm and fail way more than we win. It's infuriating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Hair more amped, but base of s/w a hair south. Confluence about the same 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 S/w stronger...2 countered vs 1 at 18z. Seems to be a trend tonight making the s/w a bit stronger 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:50 AM, stormtracker said: Hair more amped, but base of s/w a hair south. Confluence about the same Expand That combo could actually make for the best overall outcome later in the money frames re: no dry slot and coastal enhancement as the h5 is a bit more negative. lets see what happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:50 AM, stormtracker said: Hair more amped, but base of s/w a hair south. Confluence about the same Expand Confluence is technically slightly further north east but only maybe half an asshairs (approximately one county further north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:53 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Quick request: A definition of "2 countered" once PBP is finished. Expand He mains contoured aka 2 closed contours if you look at the h5 maps. Usually indicative of a pretty substantial vort/sw 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Starts around 1am Monday AM. Temp profile about the same at 81. Seems drier to the west of us vs 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:53 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Quick request: A definition of "2 countered" once PBP is finished. Expand How maybe closed counters there are around the low on the vort or h5 map. More closed conters is stronger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Still seems a bit drier vs 18z so far...confluence is just a tiny bit more NE. Temps looks fine for now for DC metro and north unless theres some sneaky warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Still a little drier...oddly enough 850 south of DC, but north of NW VA...about the same as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Sleet at 90 for DC and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 850s up to frederick. SFC at 32 just along DC SE border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:58 AM, stormtracker said: Still a little drier...oddly enough 850 south of DC, but north of NW VA...about the same as 18z Expand Wxbell maps say a lot differently. Has mix line up to FDK almost m/d line. Maybe SV looks different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 3:59 AM, stormtracker said: 850s up to frederick. SFC at 32 just along DC SE border Expand Nvm on the same page now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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