snowfan Posted Friday at 03:20 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:20 AM 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Wanted to post the accurate, updated version. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted Friday at 03:21 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:21 AM Seems like this system is coming in more dynamic every run. Starting to feel good we see some foot+ amounts throughout the region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Friday at 03:23 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:23 AM It's the ICON man. I’ve heard back-to-back posters saying it’s a great run and a bad run all in the same second 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Friday at 03:24 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:24 AM 42 minutes ago, jayyy said: That was me for sure. It’s my go to but I’m certainly not a red tagger or as knowledgeable as CAPE PSU and others I don’t ever weight the GFS over the euro at any lead. And the NAM is pretty useless for Synoptics because it’s way too jumpy and inconsistent. No way to know when it’s off on a tangent. It’s good for getting an idea what the thermals could be, especially the mids, but only if it matches the more reliable globals with the general Synoptics. Other than that have to use gut feel and historical precedent. The euro can be wrong and if it’s off alone on a tangent there are times to take a gfs solution over it but never straight up head to head. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 03:24 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:24 AM 3 minutes ago, snowfan said: Wanted to post the accurate, updated version. Same map! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Friday at 03:24 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:24 AM Just now, Ji said: I’ve heard back-to-back posters saying it’s a great run and a bad run all in the same second Some people live in different places. And some people are just stupid. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Friday at 03:24 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:24 AM 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Reston is typically on the dividing line, so I feel you there. I'm going to be in Edgewater, another area that walks the line. It will be pretty close in our hoods. I do feel we see some sleet in this at both our locations, but it will not be long and we'll get thumped with the WAA pattern, then flip back for some CCB fun to round things out. We'll be okay (Famous last words ) Thanks for the clarification, I just always see north of I-66 and go “well I’m technically part of that group” when in reality it’s always more of a battle. Glad to know it’ll mostly be snow (for the parts that matter most anyways), either way I’m mainly in it to make sure I get Monday off school and my forecast of 40% chance of 4-8 30% chance 8+ and 20% 1-4 isn’t horribly off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 03:27 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:27 AM 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Thanks for the clarification, I just always see north of I-66 and go “well I’m technically part of that group” when in reality it’s always more of a battle. Glad to know it’ll mostly be snow (for the parts that matter most anyways), either way I’m mainly in it to make sure I get Monday off school and my forecast of 40% chance of 4-8 30% chance 8+ and 20% 1-4 isn’t horribly off. The kids liked my forecasts back in the days of school because I gave them a real forecast. Shed those %’s by Saturday and make a real call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Friday at 03:27 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:27 AM 8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Rgem would lay the hammer Fetch off the Gulf too 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Friday at 03:30 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:30 AM 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: The kids liked my forecasts back in the days of school because I gave them a real forecast. Shed those %’s by Saturday and make a real call. Sorry man next time when I make a forecast a week out for an exact amount of snow I’ll make sure they know I did it so they would think I’m a “real forecaster”. Guess those people over at the NWS are also just posers with their fancy percentage based maps till a storms inside day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Friday at 03:31 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:31 AM 6 minutes ago, Ji said: I’ve heard back-to-back posters saying it’s a great run and a bad run all in the same second can see it both ways. Shows a sharp southern cutoff. Also shows an absolutely juiced WAA thump. Choose your own adventure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 03:32 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:32 AM Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Sorry man next time when I make a forecast a week out for an exact amount of snow I’ll make sure they know I did it so they would think I’m a “real forecaster”. Guess those people over at the NWS are also just posers with their fancy percentage based maps till a storms inside day 3. The storm is 3 days away now, Saturday is 2 days? I’m confused why you’re not allowed to make a real call 2 days out. That’s when the NWS will issue their forecast and headlines for the storm will likely be in place… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Friday at 03:32 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:32 AM I wonder if Eric Webb will make hay with the NAM sleet fest. He's been very downish on this threat for the MA. Today he hurt my feelings by raising the specter of Jan 2017 when central-eastern NC had a solid event forecast and at the last minute the NAM sniffed out a warm nose that reduced our 6 - 9" to maybe 1" of sleet and freezing drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted Friday at 03:33 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:33 AM 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: can see it both ways. Shows a sharp southern cutoff. Also shows an absolutely juiced WAA thump. Choose your own adventure i think why a lot of people in the forum would be scared is because even though that shows a foot, a slightly warmer warm nose (as is the case for these types of storms) would absolutely cook everyone here. though, idt the southern cutoff is really that sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skiseeker Posted Friday at 03:33 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:33 AM Thinking of heading up from hot springs Va, to snowshoe WV for this one Sunday morning… just hoping school gets called off Monday and Tuesday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Friday at 03:34 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:34 AM Just now, cbmclean said: I wonder if Eric Webb will make hay with the NAM sleet fest. He's been very downish on this threat for the MA. Today he hurt my feelings by raising the specter of Jan 2017 when central-eastern NC had a solid event forecast and at the last minute the NAM sniffed out a warm nose that reduced our 6 - 9" to maybe 1" of sleet and freezing drizzle. I truly feel for snow lovers south of I-64. You've been gipped far too often. 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 03:35 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:35 AM RGEM was lining us up for a complete beatdown. Just Obliterated. Well I66 and north. Riding that line is where you want be. As long as the models have the line in the right place. Definitely want to see the rest of the run from GGEM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 03:36 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:36 AM 13 minutes ago, Ji said: I’ve heard back-to-back posters saying it’s a great run and a bad run all in the same second If the GFS/Euro combo is good, Im good 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 03:37 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:37 AM Anyway, GFS running. Away we go 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Friday at 03:39 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:39 AM 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The storm is 3 days away now, Saturday is 2 days? I’m confused why you’re not allowed to make a real call 2 days out. That’s when the NWS will issue their forecast and headlines for the storm will likely be in place… Well yeah, I make one forecast when a storm is 6 days out at the start of the medium range with a general overview that goes over potential setups. Then I made one today for 4 days out at the end of the medium range that goes over distinct possibilities from the setup that the models agreed upon and then I’ll make one Sunday morning with accumulation maps and stuff as itll be in the short range then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Friday at 03:40 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:40 AM 10 minutes ago, nj2va said: Fetch off the Gulf too Looks pretty nice. I'm hoping that everybody gets at least six inches from this. Also, am I the only one who thinks that looks like a t-bone steak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted Friday at 03:40 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:40 AM Nothing weird out of this GFS run plz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Friday at 03:43 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:43 AM I'd like to see a 4-in-a-row thing for the GFS just for confidence in the model. Today it's been Ctrl+C and Ctrl+V for the GFS (same with the Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 03:45 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:45 AM No remarkable changes through 48 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Friday at 03:46 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:46 AM A note to snow total maps from this run of the GFS is that it gives a small blob around DC an inch of snow from Fridays squall event so make sure to keep that in mind! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AACOUNTYMD Posted Friday at 03:47 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:47 AM I can count on one hand the number of times I have been in the bullseye for snow. . . ok, I can count on one finger. But as a long time lurker and rare post-er, i know that being in the bullseye three days out isn't all that it might seem to be. Keep the good news coming, everyone. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 03:50 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:50 AM 2 minutes ago, AACOUNTYMD said: I can count on one hand the number of times I have been in the bullseye for snow. . . ok, I can count on one finger. But as a long time lurker and rare post-er, i know that being in the bullseye three days out isn't all that it might seem to be. Keep the good news coming, everyone. . . Imagine being in Winchester where we are the bullseye with just about every single storm and fail way more than we win. It's infuriating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 03:50 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:50 AM Hair more amped, but base of s/w a hair south. Confluence about the same 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 03:53 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:53 AM S/w stronger...2 countered vs 1 at 18z. Seems to be a trend tonight making the s/w a bit stronger 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 03:53 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:53 AM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Hair more amped, but base of s/w a hair south. Confluence about the same That combo could actually make for the best overall outcome later in the money frames re: no dry slot and coastal enhancement as the h5 is a bit more negative. lets see what happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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