The January 5/6 Thing

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Crazy how well a Met like Millville makes me sound like a clown.

You are most definitely not a clown! The reason I know that is because I'm a clown, and you're never at any of the meetings 

[Buddy1987]

Since we’re all dissecting the Nam the one thing I will say is any time I see thermals are wonky upstairs it is a red flag. All the years that thing has been around it usually has held superiority over models when it comes to low level cold. Naturally there’s elements of meteorology that will affect it, I.e. placement of low pressure, etc.. but if it is showing some pronounced warm layer Aleet Aleet could show its ugly face. Food for thought. I personally wouldn’t put much stock into this far out but just be mindful of how it can still be useful in its own way. 

[mitchnick]

Icon rolling. A little faster than 18z thru 54 hrs.

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

has held superiority over models

I mean the NAM holds superiority over no model......like ever.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Icon rolling. A little faster than 18z thru 54 hrs.

its slower 

[clskinsfan]

ICON is WAY colder than the NAM heading into the event. 

Edit: Sorry meant warmer. It;s Thursday night. Im hammered....whatever

[87storms]

It's the 84hr NAM, so we can usually take with a grain of salt. There are some elements I did like seeing on the run, however that should be really solid for our hood. Take a look at the 7H VV panel on the final frame. This is indicative to some incredible lift areawide that coincides with the heaviest QPF being advected southwest to northeast. This is literally how we get those classic WAA snows that overperform in our hood. The antecedent airmass is COLD leading in and remember, the 12km isn't the finer 3km resolution from the Nest, so it could be skewing the warm nose a little more in an areal sense. There will be a warm nose and there will be a shift to sleet for some, but just have to remember climo. Where does that usually occur? If you're out west of US15 and north of I-70, probably not much to worry about. South and east of there, there COULD be a short period, but this system is leaning towards a very dynamic vort pass and surface reflection developing off the coast. That potential CCB to round out the storm would likely develop in this case if you took what the NAM was spitting out, verbatim. Just look at this 700mb panel for VV's with the 7H contours overlaid. Look at the closed 7H reflection to our west? Any flip to sleet will not be a long standing issue and the shift back to snow will occur. I didn't see much to hate from this run, NAM not withstanding. Let's move on

I can walk to rt 15, but still west of it. I hope that counts.

This vort keeps looking better. It was getting sheared out a few days ago. The lack of a strong coastal low will keep it capped as a mecs, but still looks like a classic west to east, i70 storm.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

ICON is WAY colder than the NAM heading into the event. 

NAM not gonna course correct until like 48 hours.   Then it'll be too cold.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

ICON is WAY colder than the NAM heading into the event. 

It just needs to not hold onto its huge jump north. If I remember correctly it did some weird stuff yesterday at 18z before coming back into agreement with the other (better) models by 0z

[Weather Will]

ICON is colder, better run.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

I mean the NAM holds superiority over no model......like ever.

I does sometimes. System last Januarywas supposed to snow 4" then change to ip/or. 6z run of Nam cought the warm wedge and none of the other models did until some at 12z, after it started. Euro never cought on.

[poolz1]

That is one amped system at h5.  Damn

[MillvilleWx]

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Since we’re all dissecting the Nam the one thing I will say is any time I see thermals are wonky upstairs it is a red flag. All the years that thing has been around it usually has held superiority over models when it comes to low level cold. Naturally there’s elements of meteorology that will affect it, I.e. placement of low pressure, etc.. but if it is showing some pronounced warm layer Aleet Aleet could show its ugly face. Food for thought. I personally wouldn’t put much stock into this far out but just be mindful of how it can still be useful in its own way. 

The warm nose will be pretty pronounced thanks to a very strong 85H LLJ. There will be a northern edge to said jet, however and that should hit the proverbial wall somewhere in the customary spot. Down by your hood, the issue is the depth of the cold is not nearly as primed compared to those north of I-66. You can see it in the 850mb temp profiles. The cold there is much more shallow, but it will be hard to scour out. Pending the speed at which the precip edge arrives, some snow is certainly plausible before the eventual flip to sleet and eventually ZR. I would be worried for areas south of CHO for ZR in this one. Blacksburg area up to Harrisonburg look like a rough spot to be in. I'm sure the jet will promote a period of mixing a little north of where I expect, but the hot and heavy thump of WAA snows will be significant, and that will offset some of the hurt before the CAA regime takes back over with the CCB and we finish we 1-4" of pure fluff before we bid farewell to our system. Sometimes you gotta smell the rain to get the heavy snow in these parts 

[nj2va]

SW is stronger but heights lower in the NE with stronger confluence through 60.

[high risk]

Just now, mitchnick said:

I does sometimes. System last Januarywas supposed to snow 4" then change to ip/or. 6z run of Nam cought the warm wedge and none of the other models did until some at 12z, after it started. Euro never cought on.

       Yes, inside of 36 hours,  I'll take the NAM vertical profiles in a warm advection event over any model.    But at longer ranges, its synoptic errors (and yeah, people dump on the NAM, but regional models really shouldn't be expected to be great beyond Day 2) can dwarf its legitimate skill with sorting out inversions.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z ICON, kuchera should be better.

[StormyClearweather]

I take back what I said about the ICON 6 hours ago. She looks good. Love that follow-up thump. 

[clskinsfan]

I might have been wrong. ICON might be a worse model than the NAM....Just saying. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z ICON, kuchera should be better.

Snow still falling at 102hrs, but light.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

spot. Down by your hood, the issue is the depth of the cold is not nearly as primed compared to those north of I-66.

Not to “how much for my backyard” too much but I’ve seen a couple knowledgeable posters talk about how I-66 should be a decent dividing line between the heavier mixing risk to the south and a more snowy solution to the north, which sorta puts me in a rough spot because I live maybe 5 miles north of 66 (out near Reston) so I’m a little uncertain which group I fall. Anyways, it would be nice to know mentally how to interpret the I-66 stuff. 

[stormtracker]

ICON is awful.  Look what it did in 12 hours.   It's shit yall

[mitchnick]

[clskinsfan]

NAM and ICON are actually nasty ass ice storms out here. I hope they are wrong. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I mean, as someone living in upper NW DC...I'd rock that

[DDweatherman]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Jesus, a 17” jack over my house is some work of a shit model. Tell you what, I love the evolution this run though. Extremely dynamic and a 994 on OC usually makes for a big hit. 

 

[stormtracker]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

NAM and ICON are actually nasty ass ice storms out here. I hope they are wrong. 

It's the ICON man.  

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Not to “how much for my backyard” too much but I’ve seen a couple knowledgeable posters talk about how I-66 should be a decent dividing line between the heavier mixing risk to the south and a more snowy solution to the north, which sorta puts me in a rough spot because I live maybe 5 miles north of 66 (out near Reston) so I’m a little uncertain which group I fall. Anyways, it would be nice to know mentally how to interpret the I-66 stuff. 

Reston is typically on the dividing line, so I feel you there. I'm going to be in Edgewater, another area that walks the line. It will be pretty close in our hoods. I do feel we see some sleet in this at both our locations, but it will not be long and we'll get thumped with the WAA pattern, then flip back for some CCB fun to round things out. We'll be okay (Famous last words )

[TSSN+]

Rgem would lay the hammer 

 

[mitchnick]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I mean, as someone living in upper NW DC...I'd rock that

Yeah, I was a little surprised you didn't seem to like it. One more minor adjustment south and ur 9-10"

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Yeah, I was a little surprised you didn't seem to like it. One more minor adjustment south and ur 9-10"

I mean, sure I like that output, but it's a shit model.   I'm all in on Euro/GFS combo attm