mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: I mean the NAM holds superiority over no model......like ever. I does sometimes. System last Januarywas supposed to snow 4" then change to ip/or. 6z run of Nam cought the warm wedge and none of the other models did until some at 12z, after it started. Euro never cought on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 That is one amped system at h5. Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Since we’re all dissecting the Nam the one thing I will say is any time I see thermals are wonky upstairs it is a red flag. All the years that thing has been around it usually has held superiority over models when it comes to low level cold. Naturally there’s elements of meteorology that will affect it, I.e. placement of low pressure, etc.. but if it is showing some pronounced warm layer Aleet Aleet could show its ugly face. Food for thought. I personally wouldn’t put much stock into this far out but just be mindful of how it can still be useful in its own way. The warm nose will be pretty pronounced thanks to a very strong 85H LLJ. There will be a northern edge to said jet, however and that should hit the proverbial wall somewhere in the customary spot. Down by your hood, the issue is the depth of the cold is not nearly as primed compared to those north of I-66. You can see it in the 850mb temp profiles. The cold there is much more shallow, but it will be hard to scour out. Pending the speed at which the precip edge arrives, some snow is certainly plausible before the eventual flip to sleet and eventually ZR. I would be worried for areas south of CHO for ZR in this one. Blacksburg area up to Harrisonburg look like a rough spot to be in. I'm sure the jet will promote a period of mixing a little north of where I expect, but the hot and heavy thump of WAA snows will be significant, and that will offset some of the hurt before the CAA regime takes back over with the CCB and we finish we 1-4" of pure fluff before we bid farewell to our system. Sometimes you gotta smell the rain to get the heavy snow in these parts 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 SW is stronger but heights lower in the NE with stronger confluence through 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, mitchnick said: I does sometimes. System last Januarywas supposed to snow 4" then change to ip/or. 6z run of Nam cought the warm wedge and none of the other models did until some at 12z, after it started. Euro never cought on. Yes, inside of 36 hours, I'll take the NAM vertical profiles in a warm advection event over any model. But at longer ranges, its synoptic errors (and yeah, people dump on the NAM, but regional models really shouldn't be expected to be great beyond Day 2) can dwarf its legitimate skill with sorting out inversions. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 WB 0Z ICON, kuchera should be better. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I take back what I said about the ICON 6 hours ago. She looks good. Love that follow-up thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I might have been wrong. ICON might be a worse model than the NAM....Just saying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z ICON, kuchera should be better. Snow still falling at 102hrs, but light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: spot. Down by your hood, the issue is the depth of the cold is not nearly as primed compared to those north of I-66. Not to “how much for my backyard” too much but I’ve seen a couple knowledgeable posters talk about how I-66 should be a decent dividing line between the heavier mixing risk to the south and a more snowy solution to the north, which sorta puts me in a rough spot because I live maybe 5 miles north of 66 (out near Reston) so I’m a little uncertain which group I fall. Anyways, it would be nice to know mentally how to interpret the I-66 stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 ICON is awful. Look what it did in 12 hours. It's shit yall 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 NAM and ICON are actually nasty ass ice storms out here. I hope they are wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I mean, as someone living in upper NW DC...I'd rock that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, mitchnick said: Jesus, a 17” jack over my house is some work of a shit model. Tell you what, I love the evolution this run though. Extremely dynamic and a 994 on OC usually makes for a big hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Just now, clskinsfan said: NAM and ICON are actually nasty ass ice storms out here. I hope they are wrong. It's the ICON man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Not to “how much for my backyard” too much but I’ve seen a couple knowledgeable posters talk about how I-66 should be a decent dividing line between the heavier mixing risk to the south and a more snowy solution to the north, which sorta puts me in a rough spot because I live maybe 5 miles north of 66 (out near Reston) so I’m a little uncertain which group I fall. Anyways, it would be nice to know mentally how to interpret the I-66 stuff. Reston is typically on the dividing line, so I feel you there. I'm going to be in Edgewater, another area that walks the line. It will be pretty close in our hoods. I do feel we see some sleet in this at both our locations, but it will not be long and we'll get thumped with the WAA pattern, then flip back for some CCB fun to round things out. We'll be okay (Famous last words ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Rgem would lay the hammer 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, stormtracker said: I mean, as someone living in upper NW DC...I'd rock that Yeah, I was a little surprised you didn't seem to like it. One more minor adjustment south and ur 9-10" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Just now, mitchnick said: Yeah, I was a little surprised you didn't seem to like it. One more minor adjustment south and ur 9-10" I mean, sure I like that output, but it's a shit model. I'm all in on Euro/GFS combo attm 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Wanted to post the accurate, updated version. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Seems like this system is coming in more dynamic every run. Starting to feel good we see some foot+ amounts throughout the region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It's the ICON man. I’ve heard back-to-back posters saying it’s a great run and a bad run all in the same second 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 42 minutes ago, jayyy said: That was me for sure. It’s my go to but I’m certainly not a red tagger or as knowledgeable as CAPE PSU and others I don’t ever weight the GFS over the euro at any lead. And the NAM is pretty useless for Synoptics because it’s way too jumpy and inconsistent. No way to know when it’s off on a tangent. It’s good for getting an idea what the thermals could be, especially the mids, but only if it matches the more reliable globals with the general Synoptics. Other than that have to use gut feel and historical precedent. The euro can be wrong and if it’s off alone on a tangent there are times to take a gfs solution over it but never straight up head to head. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, snowfan said: Wanted to post the accurate, updated version. Same map! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Ji said: I’ve heard back-to-back posters saying it’s a great run and a bad run all in the same second Some people live in different places. And some people are just stupid. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Reston is typically on the dividing line, so I feel you there. I'm going to be in Edgewater, another area that walks the line. It will be pretty close in our hoods. I do feel we see some sleet in this at both our locations, but it will not be long and we'll get thumped with the WAA pattern, then flip back for some CCB fun to round things out. We'll be okay (Famous last words ) Thanks for the clarification, I just always see north of I-66 and go “well I’m technically part of that group” when in reality it’s always more of a battle. Glad to know it’ll mostly be snow (for the parts that matter most anyways), either way I’m mainly in it to make sure I get Monday off school and my forecast of 40% chance of 4-8 30% chance 8+ and 20% 1-4 isn’t horribly off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Thanks for the clarification, I just always see north of I-66 and go “well I’m technically part of that group” when in reality it’s always more of a battle. Glad to know it’ll mostly be snow (for the parts that matter most anyways), either way I’m mainly in it to make sure I get Monday off school and my forecast of 40% chance of 4-8 30% chance 8+ and 20% 1-4 isn’t horribly off. The kids liked my forecasts back in the days of school because I gave them a real forecast. Shed those %’s by Saturday and make a real call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Rgem would lay the hammer Fetch off the Gulf too 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: The kids liked my forecasts back in the days of school because I gave them a real forecast. Shed those %’s by Saturday and make a real call. Sorry man next time when I make a forecast a week out for an exact amount of snow I’ll make sure they know I did it so they would think I’m a “real forecaster”. Guess those people over at the NWS are also just posers with their fancy percentage based maps till a storms inside day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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