stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 NAM is slower than other guidance and even itself at 18z. 3z, still nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Gotta say this is an extremely dynamic system, wow Between our dynamic hail thunderstorm producing storm on New Years Eve and possible thunder snow tomorrow it's like a 2.5 day rule we get a dynamic system every 2.5 to 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Finally starts around 3-4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Incoming at 84 hours...32 line came north a bit. Like I said, slower than other guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 See yinz in 45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Gotta say this is an extremely dynamic system, wow This is going to be part of some surprises, me thinks. These dynamic systems always seem to have elements that don't get solved or sometimes not even seen until it's happening. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Verbatim. NAM is a sleet bomb. But who really cares. I wanted to see more cold press this run. And we saw that. On to the varsity models. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Heuy guys. question for ya... its Nam still known to have a warm bias ?? I remember years ago it did have a warmish bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, winter_warlock said: Heuy guiyus question for ya... its Nam still known to have a warm bias ?? I remember years ago it did have a warmish bias 84hr NAM has a wrong bias 3 16 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 84hr NAM has a wrong bias 1 hr NAM has wrong bias. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 84hr NAM has a wrong bias Almost as notorious as the HRRR’s 48 hour one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Only map that matters on the NAM run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I do like the sfc low placement on the nam at the end of its run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Verbatim. NAM is a sleet bomb. But who really cares. I wanted to see more cold press this run. And we saw that. On to the varsity models. I didn’t hate that NAM run especially early on. Liked to see the confluence stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Unfortunately NAM 84 thermals are never wrong 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Plenty more snow to come after 84 hrs on the Nam courtesy this ball in KY. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500hv&rh=2025010300&fh=84&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 If you touch Dca to get a sounding at 78 hrs then move it to 84, you go from zr to sleet at 84 hrs as the column cools. With that vort moving east, that changeover to snow would probably be over an hour later. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Verbatim. NAM is a sleet bomb. But who really cares. I wanted to see more cold press this run. And we saw that. On to the varsity models. It's the 84hr NAM, so we can usually take with a grain of salt. There are some elements I did like seeing on the run, however that should be really solid for our hood. Take a look at the 7H VV panel on the final frame. This is indicative to some incredible lift areawide that coincides with the heaviest QPF being advected southwest to northeast. This is literally how we get those classic WAA snows that overperform in our hood. The antecedent airmass is COLD leading in and remember, the 12km isn't the finer 3km resolution from the Nest, so it could be skewing the warm nose a little more in an areal sense. There will be a warm nose and there will be a shift to sleet for some, but just have to remember climo. Where does that usually occur? If you're out west of US15 and north of I-70, probably not much to worry about. South and east of there, there COULD be a short period, but this system is leaning towards a very dynamic vort pass and surface reflection developing off the coast. That potential CCB to round out the storm would likely develop in this case if you took what the NAM was spitting out, verbatim. Just look at this 700mb panel for VV's with the 7H contours overlaid. Look at the closed 7H reflection to our west? Any flip to sleet will not be a long standing issue and the shift back to snow will occur. I didn't see much to hate from this run, NAM not withstanding. Let's move on 13 7 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Only map that matters on the NAM run. not really dry air could be a problem for a bit with lots of virga to start.. I'm hoping for you guys down there.. you deserve it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Crazy how well a Met like Millville makes me sound like a clown. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, ineedsnow said: not really dry air could be a problem for a bit with lots of virga to start.. I'm hoping for you guys down there.. you deserve it Meh. Virga is our thing man. We do radar hallucinations better than any subforum. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Crazy how well a Met like Millville makes me sound like a clown. You are most definitely not a clown! The reason I know that is because I'm a clown, and you're never at any of the meetings 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Since we’re all dissecting the Nam the one thing I will say is any time I see thermals are wonky upstairs it is a red flag. All the years that thing has been around it usually has held superiority over models when it comes to low level cold. Naturally there’s elements of meteorology that will affect it, I.e. placement of low pressure, etc.. but if it is showing some pronounced warm layer Aleet Aleet could show its ugly face. Food for thought. I personally wouldn’t put much stock into this far out but just be mindful of how it can still be useful in its own way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Icon rolling. A little faster than 18z thru 54 hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: has held superiority over models I mean the NAM holds superiority over no model......like ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Icon rolling. A little faster than 18z thru 54 hrs. its slower 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 ICON is WAY colder than the NAM heading into the event. Edit: Sorry meant warmer. It;s Thursday night. Im hammered....whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It's the 84hr NAM, so we can usually take with a grain of salt. There are some elements I did like seeing on the run, however that should be really solid for our hood. Take a look at the 7H VV panel on the final frame. This is indicative to some incredible lift areawide that coincides with the heaviest QPF being advected southwest to northeast. This is literally how we get those classic WAA snows that overperform in our hood. The antecedent airmass is COLD leading in and remember, the 12km isn't the finer 3km resolution from the Nest, so it could be skewing the warm nose a little more in an areal sense. There will be a warm nose and there will be a shift to sleet for some, but just have to remember climo. Where does that usually occur? If you're out west of US15 and north of I-70, probably not much to worry about. South and east of there, there COULD be a short period, but this system is leaning towards a very dynamic vort pass and surface reflection developing off the coast. That potential CCB to round out the storm would likely develop in this case if you took what the NAM was spitting out, verbatim. Just look at this 700mb panel for VV's with the 7H contours overlaid. Look at the closed 7H reflection to our west? Any flip to sleet will not be a long standing issue and the shift back to snow will occur. I didn't see much to hate from this run, NAM not withstanding. Let's move onI can walk to rt 15, but still west of it. I hope that counts.This vort keeps looking better. It was getting sheared out a few days ago. The lack of a strong coastal low will keep it capped as a mecs, but still looks like a classic west to east, i70 storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: ICON is WAY colder than the NAM heading into the event. NAM not gonna course correct until like 48 hours. Then it'll be too cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: ICON is WAY colder than the NAM heading into the event. It just needs to not hold onto its huge jump north. If I remember correctly it did some weird stuff yesterday at 18z before coming back into agreement with the other (better) models by 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 ICON is colder, better run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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