stormtracker Posted Friday at 02:30 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:30 AM 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Good observation by clskinsfan, even the tiniest differences in confluence can create big shifts with snowfall. We’re talking about <50 mile shifts. I mean, sure. Just saying I wouldn't have characterized it as "substantial". Agree on the impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 02:31 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:31 AM See that vort energy pinwheeling across the south end of hudson bay? Could interact with the s/w when it gets closer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 02:31 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:31 AM S/w continues to be more amp'd out in front...should be mitigated by the ever so slight increase in confluence. We shall see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 02:33 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:33 AM 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Hey Randy. Is ass hair a technical term bro?? Lol It's indexed in K/U book of snowstorms and incorporated in the NESIS index 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Friday at 02:34 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:34 AM A wise man once posted this. Could have sworn it was you! That was me for sure. It’s my go to but I’m certainly not a red tagger or as knowledgeable as CAPE PSU and others 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 02:34 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:34 AM So far, NAM seems much slower than 18z so far... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Friday at 02:36 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:36 AM 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Its a 30 mile asshair though...:) Gotta pluck that one. Make it a rope or a fun lasso 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 02:36 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:36 AM Vort stronger...two countered now vs one on the 18z... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 02:36 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:36 AM Gotta say this is an extremely dynamic system, wow 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 02:37 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:37 AM Not as cold as the Euro. But took a step towards it. Over 60 the NAM means nothing. It is starting to sniff out the confluence though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 02:38 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:38 AM NAM is slower than other guidance and even itself at 18z. 3z, still nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Friday at 02:38 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:38 AM 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Gotta say this is an extremely dynamic system, wow Between our dynamic hail thunderstorm producing storm on New Years Eve and possible thunder snow tomorrow it's like a 2.5 day rule we get a dynamic system every 2.5 to 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 02:39 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:39 AM Finally starts around 3-4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 02:40 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:40 AM Incoming at 84 hours...32 line came north a bit. Like I said, slower than other guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 02:41 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:41 AM See yinz in 45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Friday at 02:41 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:41 AM 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Gotta say this is an extremely dynamic system, wow This is going to be part of some surprises, me thinks. These dynamic systems always seem to have elements that don't get solved or sometimes not even seen until it's happening. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 02:42 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:42 AM Verbatim. NAM is a sleet bomb. But who really cares. I wanted to see more cold press this run. And we saw that. On to the varsity models. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Friday at 02:43 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:43 AM Heuy guys. question for ya... its Nam still known to have a warm bias ?? I remember years ago it did have a warmish bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Friday at 02:44 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:44 AM Just now, winter_warlock said: Heuy guiyus question for ya... its Nam still known to have a warm bias ?? I remember years ago it did have a warmish bias 84hr NAM has a wrong bias 3 16 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Friday at 02:45 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:45 AM Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 84hr NAM has a wrong bias 1 hr NAM has wrong bias. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Friday at 02:45 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:45 AM Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 84hr NAM has a wrong bias Almost as notorious as the HRRR’s 48 hour one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 02:46 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:46 AM Only map that matters on the NAM run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 02:47 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:47 AM I do like the sfc low placement on the nam at the end of its run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Friday at 02:47 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:47 AM 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Verbatim. NAM is a sleet bomb. But who really cares. I wanted to see more cold press this run. And we saw that. On to the varsity models. I didn’t hate that NAM run especially early on. Liked to see the confluence stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted Friday at 02:49 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:49 AM Unfortunately NAM 84 thermals are never wrong 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 02:51 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:51 AM Plenty more snow to come after 84 hrs on the Nam courtesy this ball in KY. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500hv&rh=2025010300&fh=84&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 If you touch Dca to get a sounding at 78 hrs then move it to 84, you go from zr to sleet at 84 hrs as the column cools. With that vort moving east, that changeover to snow would probably be over an hour later. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Friday at 02:52 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:52 AM 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Verbatim. NAM is a sleet bomb. But who really cares. I wanted to see more cold press this run. And we saw that. On to the varsity models. It's the 84hr NAM, so we can usually take with a grain of salt. There are some elements I did like seeing on the run, however that should be really solid for our hood. Take a look at the 7H VV panel on the final frame. This is indicative to some incredible lift areawide that coincides with the heaviest QPF being advected southwest to northeast. This is literally how we get those classic WAA snows that overperform in our hood. The antecedent airmass is COLD leading in and remember, the 12km isn't the finer 3km resolution from the Nest, so it could be skewing the warm nose a little more in an areal sense. There will be a warm nose and there will be a shift to sleet for some, but just have to remember climo. Where does that usually occur? If you're out west of US15 and north of I-70, probably not much to worry about. South and east of there, there COULD be a short period, but this system is leaning towards a very dynamic vort pass and surface reflection developing off the coast. That potential CCB to round out the storm would likely develop in this case if you took what the NAM was spitting out, verbatim. Just look at this 700mb panel for VV's with the 7H contours overlaid. Look at the closed 7H reflection to our west? Any flip to sleet will not be a long standing issue and the shift back to snow will occur. I didn't see much to hate from this run, NAM not withstanding. Let's move on 13 7 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Friday at 02:55 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:55 AM 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Only map that matters on the NAM run. not really dry air could be a problem for a bit with lots of virga to start.. I'm hoping for you guys down there.. you deserve it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 02:55 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:55 AM Crazy how well a Met like Millville makes me sound like a clown. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 02:56 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:56 AM Just now, ineedsnow said: not really dry air could be a problem for a bit with lots of virga to start.. I'm hoping for you guys down there.. you deserve it Meh. Virga is our thing man. We do radar hallucinations better than any subforum. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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